Baranovichi’s recent draw and modest 1.83 goals per game at home contrast with FC Gomel’s 0.9 goals per outing on the road, yet the model still favours an away win. The predicted outcome is a 49% chance of a Gomel victory, 26% for a draw, and 25% for a Baranovichi win, making the away win the most likely result. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at a 12.5% probability. Baranovichi’s home form shows they concede 1.33 goals, while Gomel’s away side concedes 1.3, indicating a tight contest. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 97.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 5.5 at 93.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 90.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 90.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.7%, and Away +2 handicap at 89.8%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 25%, 26%, and 49% respectively.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baranovichi win
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel win
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baranovichi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.90
1.81
1.12
2.14
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.09
1.69
1.31
2.11
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.20
3.00
0.50
3.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Gomel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.07
1.61
0.89
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.58
0.92
1.81
0.81
1.20
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.9%
0-1
8.9%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.0%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Baranovichi goals ↓
FC Gomel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
8.9%
8.9%
5.3%
2.4%
1
5.0%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.4%
6.0%
5.4%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.2%
2.2%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baranovichi goals (down), columns = FC Gomel goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Baranovichi is 0.05 points worse than FC Gomel in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Baranovichi is 0.05 goals worse than FC Gomel in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Baranovichi is 0.93 goals worse than FC Gomel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Baranovichi is 10.6 percentage points worse than FC Gomel in terms of average possession (44% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Baranovichi
For 4.4 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Gomel
For 6.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Baranovichi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
9.7
15.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.2
25.3
32.5
vs Stronger (4)
15.0
-
15.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.5
-
32.5
vs Similar (38)
9.7
9.7
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
25.3
25.3
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
67%
100%
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Gomel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
10.7
15.0
2.7
2.9
2.4
28.7
29.0
28.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
2.5
0.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
11.8
10.7
15.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
28.7
29.0
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
67%
100%
30%
31%
29%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
33%
0%
70%
69%
71%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
69.0%
Under 9.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.8%
Under 21.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baranovichi or Draw
47.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
25%
52%
covers Baranovichi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi or FC Gomel
74.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
25%
52%
covers Baranovichi + FC Gomel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Gomel
77.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
25%
52%
covers Draw + FC Gomel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5
Over
66.7%
Under
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5
Over
83.3%
Under
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 3.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baranovichi, so a minus line means Baranovichi give that many goals of a start and FC Gomel receive them. At -1, Baranovichi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baranovichi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.2%
FC Gomel +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi -1
8.8%
Draw -1
13.4%
FC Gomel +1
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi +1
47.6%
Draw +1
22.4%
FC Gomel -1
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi +2
70.1%
Draw +2
16.4%
FC Gomel -2
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baranovichi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.56
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
0.92
0.69
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Gomel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.94
0.50
0.42
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
1.06
0.50
0.50
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baranovichi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.75
0.56
1.21
0.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.50
0.77
0.62
1.22
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Gomel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.67
0.39
0.58
0.83
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.54
0.75
0.31
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Baranovichi's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Gomel's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Baranovichi and FC Gomel have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Baranovichi and FC Gomel have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Baranovichi and FC Gomel have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)