Baranovichi’s recent win over Dinamo Minsk fuels optimism, while Naftan’s four-game losing streak suggests a cautious approach. The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance, a 23% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Naftan victory. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 9.6% probability. Baranovichi averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded against similar opponents at home, whereas Naftan averages only 0.7 scored and 1.9 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.9%), Under 6.5 (92.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 5.5 cards (90.3%), Over 1.5 (88.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (87.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.0%) and Home +2 handicap (86.0%). These picks reflect the defensive solidity and offensive potential projected for the match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baranovichi win
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baranovichi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.90
1.81
1.12
2.14
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.09
1.69
1.31
2.11
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.20
3.00
0.50
3.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.03
1.79
1.71
0.62
2.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.75
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
2.38
1.12
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.7%
Under 2.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
69.6%
No
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
3-2
4.7%
1-0
4.7%
Baranovichi goals ↓
Naftan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.7%
9.6%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.9%
6.0%
4.7%
2.4%
1.0%
4
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baranovichi goals (down), columns = Naftan goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Baranovichi is 0.62 points better than Naftan in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Baranovichi is 0.12 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Baranovichi is 1.57 goals better than Naftan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Baranovichi is 1.6 percentage points better than Naftan in terms of average possession (44% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Baranovichi
For 4.4 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
For 4.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Baranovichi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
9.7
15.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.2
25.3
32.5
vs Stronger (4)
15.0
-
15.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.5
-
32.5
vs Similar (38)
9.7
9.7
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
25.3
25.3
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
67%
100%
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
12.0
9.0
2.1
2.0
2.2
21.4
20.0
22.3
vs Stronger (18)
10.5
10.0
11.0
1.6
1.4
1.8
21.0
21.0
21.0
vs Similar (32)
10.0
14.0
8.0
2.4
2.4
2.4
21.7
19.0
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
100%
33%
22%
25%
19%
20%
0%
33%
% under line
40%
0%
67%
78%
75%
81%
80%
100%
67%
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.0%
Under 9.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baranovichi or Draw
71.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
29%
covers Baranovichi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi or Naftan
76.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
29%
covers Baranovichi + Naftan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Naftan
52.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
29%
covers Draw + Naftan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baranovichi, so a minus line means Baranovichi give that many goals of a start and Naftan receive them. At -1, Baranovichi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baranovichi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi -2
13.6%
Draw -2
14.7%
Naftan +2
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi -1
28.2%
Draw -1
19.7%
Naftan +1
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi +1
71.1%
Draw +1
14.9%
Naftan -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Baranovichi)
Baranovichi +2
86.0%
Draw +2
8.6%
Naftan -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baranovichi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.56
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
0.92
0.69
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.20
0.86
1.07
0.25
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.58
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
1.12
0.62
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baranovichi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.75
0.56
1.21
0.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.50
0.77
0.62
1.22
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.93
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.83
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Baranovichi and Naftan have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Baranovichi and Naftan have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Baranovichi and Naftan have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Baranovichi and Naftan have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Arsenal (Belarus)