Pythia gives Bari a 40% win probability against Sudtirol in the Italy: Serie B on 2026-05-15, with 29% for the draw and 32% for Sudtirol. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (94%), Over 23.5 fouls (88%), Over 2.5 cards (81%).
Results analysis
Bari finished 0-0 against Sudtirol (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 40% home win, 29% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (94%), Over 23.5 fouls (88%), Over 2.5 cards (81%), Under 11.5 corners (80%), Over 25.5 fouls (78%), Under 3.5 (73%). Missed: Over 1.5 (75%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bari win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol win✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
1.19
1.38
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.85
1.59
0.93
1.50
0.77
1.69
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
3.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.23
0.80
1.00
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.25
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.17
0.73
0.91
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.7%
0-0 ✓
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
Bari goals ↓
Sudtirol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.7%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.9%
14%
7.6%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
8.7%
5.3%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.0%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bari goals (down), columns = Sudtirol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Bari is 0.02 points worse than Sudtirol in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Bari and Sudtirol are level in goals scored per game (both 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Bari is 0.30 goals worse than Sudtirol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Bari is 5.2 percentage points better than Sudtirol in terms of average possession (46% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bari
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sudtirol
For 4.2 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.5
4.6
4.8
4.5
27.9
28.2
27.6
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
6.0
-
6.0
31.0
-
31.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
9.9
10.0
4.5
4.8
4.2
27.7
28.4
27.0
vs Weaker (8)
8.8
10.5
7.0
5.4
4.8
6.0
28.5
27.0
30.0
% over line
56%
67%
46%
64%
67%
62%
82%
88%
77%
% under line
44%
33%
54%
36%
33%
38%
18%
12%
23%
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.4
7.8
4.2
4.5
3.8
30.1
29.2
31.0
vs Stronger (9)
7.0
7.8
6.4
4.0
4.8
3.4
30.2
31.5
29.2
vs Similar (39)
8.7
9.6
7.8
4.1
4.2
4.1
29.8
28.4
31.4
vs Weaker (2)
13.5
13.0
14.0
6.5
11.0
2.0
35.0
37.0
33.0
% over line
34%
48%
20%
56%
56%
56%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
66%
52%
80%
44%
44%
44%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Frosinone
10.0
Spezia
9.8
Bari
9.8
Palermo
9.7
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Reggiana
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.2
Monza
9.1
Catanzaro
9.1
Avellino
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Modena
8.8
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Pescara
5.0
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Padova
4.8
Reggiana
4.8
Modena
4.7
Catanzaro
4.7
Bari
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Monza
4.3
Sudtirol
4.3
Cesena
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Spezia
32.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.0
Juve Stabia
30.5
Frosinone
30.3
Sudtirol
30.1
Catanzaro
30.0
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Venezia
29.8
Reggiana
29.2
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Carrarese
28.2
Palermo
27.9
Bari
27.9
Monza
27.4
Cesena
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.0%
Under 3.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.3%
Under 21.5
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.59
0.36
0.64
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.71
0.27
0.64
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (30)
€79m
FRO (40)
€55m
MON (34)
€49m
CAT (38)
€46m
SAM (33)
€41m
MOD (35)
€36m
EMP (38)
€36m
PAL (27)
€35m
SPE (40)
€34m
JS (39)
€34m
CES (32)
€28m
REG (43)
€26m
MAN (34)
€25m
CAR (33)
€25m
PES (43)
€22m
AVE (34)
€21m
SUD (33)
€20m
PAD (35)
€20m
BAR (28)
€18m
VE (44)
€16m
Bari's squad is €2m less valuable than Sudtirol's (€18m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAT (18)
€25m
FRO (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€17m
EMP (14)
€15m
VEN (6)
€15m
CES (9)
€15m
SAM (9)
€14m
MOD (8)
€9m
MAN (10)
€9m
BAR (11)
€9m
CAR (8)
€7m
SPE (6)
€7m
PAL (3)
€7m
PES (13)
€6m
JS (9)
€6m
AVE (11)
€5m
VE (13)
€5m
REG (12)
€5m
PAD (10)
€4m
SUD (7)
€3m
Bari's attack is €6m more valuable than Sudtirol's (€9m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (10)
€35m
SPE (16)
€16m
JS (13)
€16m
PAL (11)
€16m
MON (8)
€13m
FRO (8)
€12m
CAT (5)
€12m
MOD (12)
€11m
PES (12)
€10m
EMP (8)
€7m
VE (13)
€7m
PAD (11)
€7m
AVE (7)
€6m
CAR (11)
€6m
SUD (10)
€5m
SAM (8)
€5m
BAR (7)
€5m
REG (11)
€4m
MAN (6)
€4m
CES (8)
€4m
Bari and Sudtirol have a similar midfield value (both €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (14)
€28m
SAM (16)
€22m
FRO (18)
€21m
MON (15)
€20m
REG (20)
€17m
MOD (15)
€16m
EMP (16)
€13m
JS (17)
€12m
PAL (13)
€12m
MAN (18)
€12m
SUD (16)
€12m
CAR (14)
€11m
SPE (18)
€11m
CES (15)
€10m
CAT (15)
€9m
AVE (16)
€9m
PAD (14)
€9m
PES (18)
€6m
BAR (10)
€4m
VE (18)
€4m
Bari's defence is €7m less valuable than Sudtirol's (€4m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →