The encounter between Barnsley and Blackpool feels razor-thin, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. Barnsley’s home form shows 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Blackpool, on the road, averages 1.08 goals for and 1.62 against. The expected total is 2.8 goals, centring around a 2-goal match; the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Home victory sits at 39%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 34%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (97.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0% with a 5% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.8% with a 5% edge). Both sides have been on winning runs recently, with Barnsley’s last two games a win and a draw, and Blackpool arriving after a 4-0 victory. The balance of probabilities leaves the match open, but the model favours Barnsley’s home advantage.
Results analysis
Barnsley extended their three-game winning streak with a 2-1 victory over Blackpool, matching the Pythia model’s prediction. The model had named a home win as the favourite, assigning it a 38% probability, and this call proved correct. The match also confirmed the model’s high-confidence selections: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.7%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.0%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every selection’s outcome was noted. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the model’s overall accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barnsley win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.15
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.21
Pinnacle
2.20
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.16
BetVictor
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.55
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Blackpool win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.07
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.19
Dafabet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.44
1.56
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.43
1.21
1.43
1.36
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
3.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.47
1.67
1.13
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.36
1.67
1.13
1.08
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.18+0.4%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 4.31-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.74
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.64-3.0%
Under 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.19+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
@ 2.56-4.6%
Under 3.5
68.1%
@ 1.47+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.8%
@ 1.54-1.5%
No
41.2%
@ 2.33+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Betfair
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.61+6.1%
2-1 ✓
8.6%@ 8.23+3.1%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.96+3.7%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.08+2.3%
0-0
7.0%@ 12.50+3.4%
0-1
6.9%@ 11.19+2.9%
2-0
6.2%@ 11.28+2.2%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.93+1.8%
Barnsley goals ↓
Blackpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.3%
13%
8.2%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.2%
8.6%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.0%
4.2%
2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barnsley goals (down), columns = Blackpool goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Barnsley is 0.02 points worse than Blackpool in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Barnsley is 0.30 goals better than Blackpool in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Barnsley is 0.17 goals worse than Blackpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Barnsley is 5.8 percentage points better than Blackpool in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barnsley
For 7.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 13.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Blackpool
For 4.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.5
11.6
3.3
3.6
3.0
20.5
21.7
19.3
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
8.0
16.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
21.5
30.0
13.0
vs Similar (45)
11.2
10.9
11.4
3.5
4.0
3.1
20.6
21.6
19.6
vs Weaker (3)
20.0
20.0
-
1.3
1.3
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
59%
60%
58%
44%
58%
29%
43%
56%
29%
% under line
41%
40%
42%
56%
42%
71%
57%
44%
71%
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.4
11.6
3.7
3.4
4.0
23.2
23.9
22.5
vs Stronger (1)
20.0
-
20.0
4.0
-
4.0
21.0
-
21.0
vs Similar (45)
10.3
9.5
11.1
3.8
3.5
4.2
23.2
23.9
22.5
vs Weaker (4)
10.3
8.5
14.0
1.8
2.3
0.0
23.3
23.5
23.0
% over line
59%
52%
67%
52%
42%
62%
65%
68%
62%
% under line
41%
48%
33%
48%
58%
38%
35%
32%
38%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Blackpool
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Burton
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Wycombe
10.1
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.9
Mansfield
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Doncaster
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Blackpool
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Burton
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
24.0
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Blackpool
23.3
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.8
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Reading
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
72.9%
@ 1.50+11.3%
Under 9.5
27.1%
@ 2.40-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Marathonbet
2.47
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.6%
Under 3.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
53.0%
Under 21.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barnsley or Draw✓ Hit
65.2%
Avg Implied 69.3% · @ 1.34
Edge
-4.2%
38%
27%
35%
covers Barnsley + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Barnsley or Blackpool✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.3%
38%
27%
35%
covers Barnsley + Blackpool
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Blackpool✗ Miss
62.2%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.64
Edge
+5.5%
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Blackpool
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barnsley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.7%
@ 1.17-2.7%
Under
23.3%
@ 4.51+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Barnsley over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.8%
@ 1.88-6.8%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.85+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Barnsley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 3.79-6.5%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.23+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.88
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Barnsley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 8.02-5.6%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.06+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.30
1xBet
6.70
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
Blackpool over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.27+1.9%
Under
24.9%
@ 3.47-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.82
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Blackpool over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.5%
@ 2.36+0.9%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.54-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Blackpool over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 5.49-0.5%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Blackpool over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 13.92-1.6%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barnsley, so a minus line means Barnsley give that many goals of a start and Blackpool receive them. At -1, Barnsley must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barnsley win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barnsley)Actual: Blackpool
Barnsley -2
7.0%
@ 7.98-4.2%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 6.02-3.4%
Blackpool +2
81.5%
@ 1.22+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Barnsley)Actual: Draw
Barnsley -1
18.5%
@ 3.86-4.7%
Draw -1
19.3%
@ 4.03-3.0%
Blackpool +1
62.2%
@ 1.65+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Handicap +1 (Barnsley)Actual: Barnsley
Barnsley +1
65.2%
@ 1.34-1.9%
Draw +1
18.3%
@ 4.83-0.3%
Blackpool -1
16.5%
@ 6.30+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Superbet
4.90
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Handicap +2 (Barnsley)Actual: Barnsley
Barnsley +2
83.5%
@ 1.09-0.8%
Draw +2
10.5%
@ 9.33+0.7%
Blackpool -2
6.0%
@ 15.67+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.81
0.69
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.61
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.46
0.23
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.30-3.6%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 3.32+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.9%
@ 2.38-5.1%
Under 1.5
66.1%
@ 1.52+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 5.54-5.1%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
@ 1.79-6.4%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.93+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.93-5.7%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.14+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
4.85
Superbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 12.58-5.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Blackpool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.8%
@ 2.07-2.9%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.68+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Unibet
2.06
1xBet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Superbet
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Blackpool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 6.62-3.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.08+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Blackpool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 19.67-3.1%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.62
0.88
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.82
0.64
0.86
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.93
0.40
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.86
0.93
0.40
0.62
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.17-3.3%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 4.56+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.13
Under
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.9%
@ 1.84-7.4%
Under 1.5
57.1%
@ 1.87+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 3.59-8.3%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.25+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.7%
@ 1.56-6.8%
Under
47.3%
@ 2.29+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.16
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
17.0%
@ 3.62-8.6%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.25+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.38-6.3%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Blackpool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.5%
@ 1.73-4.1%
Under
50.5%
@ 2.00+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Blackpool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 4.59-4.8%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.16+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Blackpool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 12.00-4.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.0%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
82.3%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.24
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.18
BetVictor
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.13
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
72.9%
1.50
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barnsley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. McGeehan60%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Luca Connell0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonathan Bland50%
Leo Farrell33%
Sam Gale25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Rogan Ravenhill25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Reyes Cleary0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Luke Alker0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reyes Cleary40%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
C. McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Sam Gale0%
Tyrese Noslin0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tyrese Noslin50%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Blackpool
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Bowler60%
Dion Charles33%
Kylian Kouassi33%
Tom Bloxham25%
Karoy Anderson25%
J. Williams20%
Leighton Clarkson20%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
A. Morgan0%
G. Honeyman0%
Andy Lyons0%
Oliver Casey0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finley Munroe50%
Hayden Coulson33%
Z. Ashworth33%
Karoy Anderson25%
CJ Hamilton20%
J. Williams20%
G. Honeyman20%
Josh Bowler20%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
A. Morgan0%
Andy Lyons0%
Dion Charles0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Oliver Casey0%
Tom Bloxham0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dion Charles33%
B. Peacock-Farrell20%
G. Honeyman20%
Oliver Casey20%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
J. Williams0%
A. Morgan0%
Andy Lyons0%
Josh Bowler0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Tom Bloxham0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Karoy Anderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Bowler40%
Tom Bloxham25%
Karoy Anderson25%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
J. Williams0%
A. Morgan0%
G. Honeyman0%
Andy Lyons0%
Dion Charles0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Oliver Casey0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Barnsley's squad is €3m less valuable than Blackpool's (€8m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Barnsley's attack is €2m less valuable than Blackpool's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Barnsley and Blackpool have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Barnsley and Blackpool have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Burton
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe