Barnsley are tipped to edge Stevenage, with a 47% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Stevenage victory. The match is expected to produce 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4% probability. Barnsley, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded, while Stevenage, on the road, average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.3% (edge 2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1% (edge 6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8% (edge 5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8% (edge 3%), Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7% (edge 4%), Under 5.5 at 95.1% (edge 3%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3% (edge 3%). Barnsley have begun the season on a two-game winning run, while Stevenage are coming off a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barnsley win
46.8%
Avg Implied 43.2% · @ 2.16
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.20
Dafabet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.30
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
10Bet
3.35
Stevenage win
24.5%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.26
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.36
Dafabet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.44
1.56
1.36
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.43
1.21
1.43
1.36
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
3.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
1.06
0.88
0.77
1.54
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.04
1.14
0.93
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.2%
@ 1.30+0.9%
Under 1.5
27.8%
@ 3.24-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 1.97-2.4%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.80+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.9%
@ 3.37-3.7%
Under 3.5
76.1%
@ 1.28+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Both teams to score
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.75-2.8%
No
49.8%
@ 1.98+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
No
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 5.92+6.1%
1-0
11.1%@ 7.09+4.8%
0-0
9.6%@ 8.82+4.5%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.23+3.8%
2-0
9.1%@ 9.88+4.6%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.96+2.2%
1-2
6.2%@ 10.68+2.1%
2-2
4.6%@ 12.85+1.2%
Barnsley goals ↓
Stevenage goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.1%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.2%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barnsley goals (down), columns = Stevenage goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Barnsley is 0.28 points worse than Stevenage in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Barnsley is 0.46 goals better than Stevenage in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Barnsley is 0.57 goals worse than Stevenage in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Barnsley is 7.2 percentage points better than Stevenage in terms of average possession (52% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barnsley
For 8.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 13.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stevenage
For 4.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
11.8
11.6
3.4
3.7
3.0
20.4
21.5
19.3
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
8.0
16.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
21.5
30.0
13.0
vs Similar (45)
11.3
11.2
11.4
3.6
4.1
3.1
20.4
21.4
19.6
vs Weaker (3)
20.0
20.0
-
1.3
1.3
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
61%
64%
58%
44%
58%
29%
43%
56%
29%
% under line
39%
36%
42%
56%
42%
71%
57%
44%
71%
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.9
8.8
3.6
3.6
3.7
24.4
26.2
22.5
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.3
3.7
3.0
25.0
28.5
21.5
vs Similar (38)
8.4
8.5
8.2
3.7
3.6
3.9
24.2
25.4
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
36%
58%
54%
58%
50%
69%
84%
54%
% under line
53%
64%
42%
46%
42%
50%
31%
16%
46%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.7
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
11.0
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.4
Burton
10.4
Bradford
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Huddersfield
10.2
Bromley
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Blackpool
3.9
Doncaster
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Wycombe
3.6
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.8
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Luton
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.7
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Doncaster
22.8
Reading
22.7
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Mansfield
22.3
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.3
Stockport
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.5%
@ 1.95+12.9%
Under 9.5
39.5%
@ 1.77-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Under
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.1%
Under 21.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barnsley or Draw
75.5%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.31
Edge
+4.2%
47%
29%
24%
covers Barnsley + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Barnsley or Stevenage
71.3%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.6%
47%
29%
24%
covers Barnsley + Stevenage
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Draw or Stevenage
53.2%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.64
Edge
-3.6%
47%
29%
24%
covers Draw + Stevenage
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barnsley over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
@ 1.24+2.3%
Under
22.8%
@ 3.70-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.17
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.74
Barnsley over/under 1.5
Over
43.5%
@ 2.16+0.4%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.64-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Barnsley over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
@ 4.91-0.4%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.15+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Barnsley over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 10.75-2.6%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Stevenage over/under 0.5
Over
63.4%
@ 1.38-3.7%
Under
36.6%
@ 2.81+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Stevenage over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
@ 2.86-5.8%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.38+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Stevenage over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
@ 7.19-4.8%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Stevenage over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
@ 16.25-3.9%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barnsley, so a minus line means Barnsley give that many goals of a start and Stevenage receive them. At -1, Barnsley must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barnsley win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barnsley)
Barnsley -2
9.5%
@ 9.35-0.1%
Draw -2
14.6%
@ 6.25+0.2%
Stevenage +2
76.0%
@ 1.18-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Barnsley)
Barnsley -1
24.0%
@ 4.19+2.7%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 3.75-1.0%
Stevenage +1
53.2%
@ 1.63-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Barnsley)
Barnsley +1
75.5%
@ 1.32+7.7%
Draw +1
15.1%
@ 4.63-4.1%
Stevenage -1
9.4%
@ 6.91-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Barnsley)
Barnsley +2
90.6%
@ 1.08+6.3%
Draw +2
6.7%
@ 9.00-3.4%
Stevenage -2
2.6%
@ 16.33-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.69
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.61
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.47
0.35
0.38
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.50
0.36
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.7%
@ 1.40+0.3%
Under 0.5
33.3%
@ 2.77-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.4%
@ 2.82-3.4%
Under 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.38+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.81
Under
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 7.24-3.3%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.8%
@ 1.95-0.7%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.76+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
@ 5.71-4.0%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.10+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
@ 16.25-3.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Stevenage over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.7%
@ 2.33-3.0%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.53+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.33
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Stevenage over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.8%
@ 7.90-2.9%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Stevenage over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 12.50-6.4%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.69
0.88
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.82
0.71
0.86
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Stevenage) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stevenage
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.59
0.53
0.38
0.77
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.58
0.64
0.57
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.24-0.2%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 3.69+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
William Hil
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 2.15-3.1%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.65+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 4.51-5.1%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.17+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.3%
@ 1.67-2.3%
Under
46.7%
@ 2.09+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.01
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.3%
@ 4.12-4.1%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.19+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
@ 10.00-4.5%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Stevenage over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.5%
@ 1.92-3.8%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.79+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Stevenage over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.9%
@ 5.60-4.6%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Stevenage over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 15.12-4.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+4.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+2.9%
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
1.08
Unibet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+6.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+3.3%
Under 4.5
89.3%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+3.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+4.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+5.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-
+4.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+0.4%
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
+2.3%
Under 3.5
76.1%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+3.7%
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
1.18
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-
-0.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.5%
1.31
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+4.2%
Home +1 handicap
75.5%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+7.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-0.2%
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+5.8%
Over 1.5
72.2%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.31
+0.9%
Over 8.5 corners
72.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Unibet
1.54
+13.7%
Home or Away
71.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
-0.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.38
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
+3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barnsley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. McGeehan60%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Luca Connell0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonathan Bland50%
Leo Farrell33%
Sam Gale25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Rogan Ravenhill25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Reyes Cleary0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Luke Alker0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reyes Cleary40%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
C. McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Sam Gale0%
Tyrese Noslin0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tyrese Noslin50%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Stevenage
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Magennis40%
J. Roberts20%
D. Kemp20%
O. Sanderson20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
L. Freestone0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luther James-Wildin67%
C. Piergianni40%
J. Roberts20%
L. Freestone20%
D. Kemp20%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
P. Patterson0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Patterson40%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
D. Kemp0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
O. Sanderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kemp40%
P. Patterson20%
O. Sanderson20%
J. Roberts0%
Jordan Houghton0%
T. Vancooten0%
Luther James-Wildin0%
C. Piergianni0%
L. Thompson0%
Josh Magennis0%
L. Freestone0%
Filip Marschall0%
T. Taylor0%
D. Phillips0%
M. Mellon0%
Saxon Earley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Barnsley and Stevenage have a similar squad value (both €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Barnsley and Stevenage have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Barnsley and Stevenage have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Barnsley and Stevenage have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe