Başakşehir enter the fixture on a draw-heavy run, having drawn their last match 1-1 against Kasimpasa, while Galatasaray arrive on a two-game winning streak, having edged Göztepe 3-2. The model’s most confident pick is an away win, with a 45% chance, followed by a 29% home win and a 26% draw. The expected goal tally sits at 2.9, but the most probable total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% chance.
Başakşehir’s home form against stronger opponents sees them average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Galatasaray’s away record versus weaker teams shows 1.91 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s suggested picks cover a range of low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.2% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (97.7% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (93.8% with a 7% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.6% with a 7% edge) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9% with a 9% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Başakşehir win
29.9%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.79
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.19
Betano
5.10
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied 22.2% · @ 4.23
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.49
1xBet
4.47
Dafabet
4.40
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Galatasaray win
43.2%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.61
Edge
-15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Dafabet
1.63
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Başakşehir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
2.25
1.19
1.57
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.50
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.62
2.50
2.25
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.24
0.71
2.30
0.60
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
2.60
1.07
1.47
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.57
1.43
2.50
0.75
0.33
2.33
vs Weaker (22)
2.27
1.23
2.64
1.18
1.91
1.27
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.13-3.7%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 5.45+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
5.89
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.47-9.0%
Under 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.57+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Bet365
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.72
Betfair
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.3%
@ 2.19-10.8%
Under 3.5
67.7%
@ 1.66+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
Under
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.52-2.4%
No
41.4%
@ 2.38+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.52
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.45
Betano
2.45
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 8.02+7.1%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.60+3.3%
0-1
7.9%@ 9.34+3.1%
2-1
7.4%@ 13.54+4.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 9.27+2.3%
0-0
6.9%@ 16.48+4.1%
1-0
6.2%@ 16.41+3.4%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.78+2.1%
Başakşehir goals ↓
Galatasaray goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.9%
7.1%
3.8%
1.5%
1
6.2%
13%
9.1%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.7%
7.4%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Başakşehir goals (down), columns = Galatasaray goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Başakşehir is 0.59 points worse than Galatasaray in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 2.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Başakşehir is 0.56 goals worse than Galatasaray in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Başakşehir is 0.15 goals worse than Galatasaray in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Başakşehir is 7.6 percentage points worse than Galatasaray in terms of average possession (54% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Başakşehir
For 4.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galatasaray
For 5.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Başakşehir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
26.6
26.9
26.3
vs Stronger (8)
11.3
11.0
11.5
4.5
5.7
3.8
22.9
24.0
22.0
vs Similar (14)
9.2
8.8
9.6
4.5
5.0
4.0
26.8
26.5
27.1
vs Weaker (28)
9.6
8.9
10.6
4.4
4.2
4.5
27.6
27.7
27.4
% over line
49%
43%
55%
64%
72%
56%
87%
91%
82%
% under line
51%
57%
45%
36%
28%
44%
13%
9%
18%
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.7
8.2
4.1
4.5
3.6
23.7
23.2
24.3
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
1.0
-
1.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (13)
10.1
10.4
9.7
6.5
7.4
5.5
26.7
25.9
27.7
vs Weaker (36)
8.6
9.4
7.7
3.3
3.5
3.1
22.7
22.1
23.4
% over line
48%
67%
27%
50%
58%
42%
72%
67%
77%
% under line
52%
33%
73%
50%
42%
58%
28%
33%
23%
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Başakşehir
9.7
Samsunspor
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Çorum FK
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Amed
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.9
Eyüpspor
8.9
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.3
Alanyaspor
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Beşiktaş
5.1
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Konyaspor
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Çorum FK
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Alanyaspor
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Trabzonspor
4.7
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Samsunspor
4.4
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.7
Kocaelispor
27.4
Alanyaspor
27.1
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.6
Eyüpspor
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.5
Samsunspor
26.2
Rizespor
26.1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.2
Konyaspor
24.8
Galatasaray
23.5
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
22.9
Amed
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.1%
@ 1.98-9.9%
Under 9.5
62.9%
@ 1.75+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.6%
@ 1.44+1.7%
Under 3.5
33.4%
@ 2.67-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.5%
Under 21.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Başakşehir or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.24
Edge
+11.2%
30%
27%
43%
covers Başakşehir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Başakşehir or Galatasaray
72.9%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-5.3%
30%
27%
43%
covers Başakşehir + Galatasaray
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Galatasaray
74.0%
Avg Implied 80.0% · @ 1.17
Edge
-6.0%
30%
27%
43%
covers Draw + Galatasaray
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
@ 1.36+0.1%
Under
31.7%
@ 2.92-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Başakşehir over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
@ 2.78-1.7%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.41+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Başakşehir over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
@ 6.88-2.6%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.08+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Başakşehir over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 17.08-2.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Galatasaray over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
@ 1.08-6.1%
Under
20.0%
@ 6.70+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Galatasaray over/under 1.5
Over
47.9%
@ 1.49-14.8%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.50+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.52
BetVictor
2.50
Galatasaray over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
@ 2.54-14.8%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.48+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
10Bet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Galatasaray over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
@ 4.99-10.6%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.14+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Başakşehir, so a minus line means Başakşehir give that many goals of a start and Galatasaray receive them. At -1, Başakşehir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Başakşehir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Başakşehir)
Başakşehir -2
3.3%
@ 24.50-0.5%
Draw -2
7.4%
@ 12.75+0.2%
Galatasaray +2
89.2%
@ 1.04+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Başakşehir)
Başakşehir -1
10.8%
@ 10.00+1.7%
Draw -1
15.3%
@ 6.46+1.3%
Galatasaray +1
74.0%
@ 1.17-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Başakşehir)
Başakşehir +1
53.1%
@ 2.23+12.8%
Draw +1
21.9%
@ 3.73-2.1%
Galatasaray -1
25.1%
@ 2.50-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
10Bet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Handicap +2 (Başakşehir)
Başakşehir +2
74.9%
@ 1.46+13.8%
Draw +2
14.6%
@ 4.62-4.7%
Galatasaray -2
10.4%
@ 4.57-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Başakşehir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.12
0.44
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
1.20
0.30
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.40
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.32
0.91
0.27
1.09
0.36
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.7%
@ 1.23-3.4%
Under 0.5
28.3%
@ 3.72+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.8%
@ 2.15-7.6%
Under 1.5
64.2%
@ 1.65+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 4.69-6.1%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.16+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.4%
@ 2.28+3.6%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.57-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
@ 7.40-2.2%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.60
1xBet
7.50
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 29.00-97.9%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Galatasaray over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.2%
@ 1.53-9.8%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.39+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.55
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Galatasaray over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.2%
@ 3.47-11.5%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.26+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Galatasaray over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
@ 9.05-6.6%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Başakşehir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.83
1.12
0.75
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.12
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.47
1.10
0.30
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Galatasaray) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Galatasaray
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.67
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.71
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.27
0.91
1.73
0.91
0.82
0.91
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.14-0.3%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 5.10+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.15
Superbet
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.1%
@ 1.71-7.3%
Under 1.5
52.9%
@ 2.04+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.3%
@ 3.16-10.1%
Under 2.5
80.7%
@ 1.32+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
@ 1.89+2.2%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.81-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.2%
@ 5.50-1.6%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.11+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.60
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 14.50-3.4%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Galatasaray over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
@ 1.36-10.3%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.91+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.82
Galatasaray over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.1%
@ 2.65-15.8%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.42+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Galatasaray over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 6.27-10.1%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.09+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.70
1xBet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+4.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+10.1%
Under 5.5
93.8%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+7.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+10.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+2.2%
Away +2 handicap
89.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+0.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+2.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
+6.1%
Under 4.5
85.4%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+10.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+11.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.6%
Under 11.5 corners
83.3%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
+10.5%
Over 2.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-0.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.42
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
+15.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.32
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+10.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
-6.1%
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-3.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
78.0%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+14.8%
Home +2 handicap
74.9%
1.46
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
+13.8%
Under 10.5 corners
74.3%
1.45
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.49
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
+10.7%
Draw or Away
74.0%
1.17
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-6.0%
Away +1 handicap
74.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-3.0%
Home or Away
72.9%
1.20
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.7%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Başakşehir
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eldor Shomurodov100%
Christopher Operi33%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Umut Bozok0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Olivier Kemen67%
Davie Selke33%
Ömer Ali Şahiner33%
Onur Ergün33%
Jerome Opoku33%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev33%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Christopher Operi0%
Umut Bozok0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Eldor Shomurodov0%
Emin Bayram0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Skov Olsen33%
Umut Bozok33%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev33%
Christopher Operi0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Eldor Shomurodov0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eldor Shomurodov67%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Christopher Operi0%
Umut Bozok0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev0%
Galatasaray
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Osimhen100%
Davinson Sánchez33%
Yunus Akgün33%
Roland Sallai33%
Gabriel Sara33%
Leroy Sané0%
Lucas Torreira0%
Mario Lemina0%
Eren Elmalı0%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz0%
Ismail Jakobs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yunus Akgün33%
Eren Elmalı33%
Barış Alper Yılmaz33%
Davinson Sánchez0%
Leroy Sané0%
Lucas Torreira0%
Victor Osimhen0%
Mario Lemina0%
Roland Sallai0%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı0%
Gabriel Sara0%
Ismail Jakobs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Victor Osimhen67%
Gabriel Sara67%
Lucas Torreira33%
Davinson Sánchez0%
Yunus Akgün0%
Leroy Sané0%
Mario Lemina0%
Roland Sallai0%
Eren Elmalı0%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz0%
Ismail Jakobs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yunus Akgün67%
Victor Osimhen67%
Gabriel Sara67%
Leroy Sané33%
Roland Sallai33%
Davinson Sánchez0%
Lucas Torreira0%
Mario Lemina0%
Eren Elmalı0%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz0%
Ismail Jakobs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Başakşehir's squad is €268m less valuable than Galatasaray's (€77m vs €345m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Başakşehir's attack is €133m less valuable than Galatasaray's (€40m vs €173m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Başakşehir's midfield is €63m less valuable than Galatasaray's (€10m vs €72m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Başakşehir's defence is €72m less valuable than Galatasaray's (€28m vs €100m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Amed
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Kasımpaşa
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor