Bate Borisov are tipped to win, the model’s pick and the home win probability of 50% underscoring a clear advantage. The game is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Bate’s home form shows they average 1.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against similar opposition, while Dinamo Brest’s away numbers are 0.92 scored and 1.33 conceded. The suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 80.9%, Under 3.5 at 77.0% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 72.9%, Over 1.5 at 71.3% (hit) and Over 8.5 corners at 71.2% (hit). The draw probability sits at 28% and the away win at 22%. Bate’s recent form, a win over FC Minsk, and Dinamo’s recent defeat to ML Vitebsk add context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The 4-0 victory for Bate Borisov extended their recent winning streak, confirming the model’s pick of a home win with a 50% probability. The prediction proved correct. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5 goals, with a 77% chance, missed as the match produced four goals; Over 1.5 goals, at 71.3%, hit comfortably; Over 8.5 corners, also at 71.2%, succeeded. The final score of 4-0 matched the actual result of a home win, and the model’s forecast of a 2-goal total fell short of the four goals scored. Overall, the model’s favourite call was right, while its goal-and-corner predictions were only partially accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.40
1.80
1.40
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
4.67
2.00
4.00
2.00
6.00
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.09
1.82
1.00
1.50
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.53
1.47
0.80
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.48
1.62
1.62
0.92
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.1%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.1%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
Dinamo Brest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.8%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.6%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.3%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.1%
4.7%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = Dinamo Brest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
Bate Borisov is 0.61 points better than Dinamo Brest in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
Bate Borisov is 0.57 goals better than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
Bate Borisov is 0.64 goals better than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
For 4.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.2 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
For 5.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.7
2.0
2.4
1.5
19.0
18.5
19.3
vs Stronger (5)
9.3
11.0
8.5
2.4
1.7
3.5
26.0
23.0
29.0
vs Similar (40)
10.0
9.9
10.0
1.8
2.0
1.4
14.3
14.0
14.5
vs Weaker (5)
13.0
15.0
9.0
3.4
5.7
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
55%
56%
54%
26%
30%
22%
40%
50%
33%
% under line
45%
44%
46%
74%
70%
78%
60%
50%
67%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
10.7
10.7
10.7
1.3
1.5
1.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
-
11.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.5
9.7
11.1
1.3
1.4
1.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
11.2
14.0
8.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
67%
67%
19%
25%
12%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
33%
33%
81%
75%
88%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
12.6
Slavia Mozyr
11.3
Belshina
10.8
Dinamo Brest
10.7
Smorgon
10.4
Bate Borisov
10.2
Dinamo Minsk
10.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.9
FC Slutsk
9.8
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
Torpedo Zhodino
9.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.5
FC Minsk
9.3
FC Gomel
9.2
Neman
9.1
FC Vitebsk
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Neman
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
FC Minsk
4.6
Torpedo Zhodino
4.5
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.3
Naftan
4.3
Dinamo Brest
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.2
Smorgon
4.2
FC Gomel
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.1
FC Slutsk
3.9
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.3%
Under 9.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.2%
Under 3.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.53
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.35
0.91
0.36
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.84
0.92
0.92
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.50
2.50
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.74
0.91
0.64
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.69
0.69
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Bate Borisov's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Bate Borisov's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →