Bate Borisov are tipped to edge Dinamo Brest in a 44% home win scenario, the model’s pick for the match. The game is expected to produce about 3.1 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% chance. Bate’s home form shows 1.58 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Dinamo’s away record is 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 5.5 cards at 86.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.5%, Over 8.5 corners at 77.5%, and Under 4.5 cards at 73.3%. The home win probability is 44%, the draw 26%, and the away win 30%. Bate’s recent run of WDWDL and a win over FC Minsk, contrasted with Dinamo’s LDLWW and a loss to ML Vitebsk, set the stage for a competitive yet home-favoured contest.
Results analysis
Bate Borisov’s recent win over FC Minsk extends a mixed run, while Dinamo Brest’s last defeat to ML Vitebsk leaves them searching for consistency. The model’s favourite, a home win at 44 percent, proved correct as Bate triumphed 3-1, matching the predicted outcome. The most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the final tally of 3-1 still fell within the model’s expected range. The model’s selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.3 percent, Over 1.5 hit at 82.5 percent, and Under 4.5 cards hit at 73.3 percent. All picks settled as forecast, confirming the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest win✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.37
2.07
1.36
1.19
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.54
1.58
1.33
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (5)
3.80
0.80
5.00
1.50
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.43
2.00
1.40
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
1.73
1.31
2.08
1.31
1.38
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
Dinamo Brest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.2%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.7%
12%
7.5%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.2%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.7%
5.2%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = Dinamo Brest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Bate Borisov is 0.30 points worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Bate Borisov is 0.80 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 2.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Bate Borisov is 0.03 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
For 7.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 7.2 · Total 15.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Brest
For 6.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.5
2.8
3.5
2.1
19.0
18.7
19.3
vs Stronger (4)
11.5
11.0
12.0
2.0
2.5
1.5
26.0
23.0
29.0
vs Similar (38)
10.0
10.1
10.0
2.9
3.4
2.5
15.5
16.5
14.5
vs Weaker (8)
12.8
13.0
12.5
2.5
4.8
0.2
-
-
-
% over line
53%
50%
57%
38%
46%
31%
33%
33%
33%
% under line
47%
50%
43%
62%
54%
69%
67%
67%
67%
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.2
2.0
2.2
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
-
11.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
11.3
11.0
11.5
2.2
2.3
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
14.0
8.0
1.5
3.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
73%
73%
73%
28%
36%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
27%
27%
27%
72%
64%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.2
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.6
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Slutsk
10.2
Smorgon
10.1
Torpedo Zhodino
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Neman
9.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bate Borisov
4.4
FC Minsk
4.3
Dinamo Minsk
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.2
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Dinamo Brest
4.1
Neman
4.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.0
Torpedo Zhodino
4.0
Smorgon
3.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Slutsk
3.8
FC Gomel
3.7
Naftan
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.8%
Under 9.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
1.00
0.71
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.75
0.83
0.67
0.25
0.83
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.60
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.00
0.53
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.54
1.08
0.54
1.00
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.07
0.64
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.79
0.75
0.67
0.50
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.20
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
0.87
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.77
1.00
0.77
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Bate Borisov's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Bate Borisov's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Naftan
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva