The contest between Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most probable total is two, a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, a tidy draw that reflects the evenly matched teams. Bate’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and 1.1 conceded against similar opposition, while Dinamo, on the road, averages 1.67 goals for and 1.75 against. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 91.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 81.2% and Over 8.5 corners at 74.2%. The draw probability sits at 26%, and the away win chance is 34%. Dinamo’s recent run of five games (LDLWW) and Bate’s recent win (WDWDL) add intrigue, but the edge remains with Bate Borisov.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Bate Borisov, failed to deliver as the match ended 2-4 in favour of Dinamo Brest, extending the latter’s recent win streak. The model had called a home win with a 40% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: “Under 5.5 cards” hit at 91.4%, “Over 1.5” hit at 81.2%, while “Under 4.5 cards” missed at 81.2%. Dinamo Brest’s away form, with 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, proved decisive, while Bate Borisov’s home form, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.1 conceded, could not keep pace. The upset underscores the volatility of the Premier League.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest win✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.73
1.20
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.10
1.00
1.10
1.09
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
0.83
4.00
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.27
1.88
0.94
1.71
1.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.92
1.24
2.15
0.77
1.67
1.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
2-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
Dinamo Brest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.0%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.7%
12%
8.0%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.7%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.2%
4.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = Dinamo Brest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Bate Borisov is 0.37 points worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Bate Borisov is 0.13 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Bate Borisov is 0.43 goals worse than Dinamo Brest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Brest
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.3
10.8
2.9
3.1
2.8
19.0
19.0
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
3.0
3.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
11.4
13.0
9.5
3.3
3.2
3.4
19.0
19.0
-
vs Weaker (10)
12.5
9.0
16.0
1.7
3.0
0.4
-
-
-
% over line
64%
67%
60%
42%
38%
46%
0%
0%
-
% under line
36%
33%
40%
58%
62%
54%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.8
13.6
12.1
2.6
2.5
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
1.8
1.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
12.3
12.5
12.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
18.0
18.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
83%
80%
86%
34%
31%
38%
-
-
-
% under line
17%
20%
14%
66%
69%
62%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
12.9
Dinamo Brest
12.1
Bate Borisov
11.0
Torpedo Zhodino
10.9
FC Gomel
10.9
Belshina
10.9
FC Slutsk
10.2
Slavia Mozyr
10.1
Smorgon
9.9
Neman
9.7
Dinamo Minsk
9.4
FC Minsk
9.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.1
FC Vitebsk
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.8
Bate Borisov
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Naftan
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.6
FC Gomel
3.5
FC Minsk
3.4
Dinamo Brest
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.3
FC Slutsk
3.1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.8
Neman
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
24.4
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.8%
Under 9.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.47
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.25
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.48
1.00
0.08
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.07
0.73
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.57
0.50
0.60
0.55
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
0.67
2.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Brest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Brest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.00
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.76
1.15
0.69
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Brest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Bate Borisov's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov and Dinamo Brest have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Bate Borisov's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Brest's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ML Vitebsk
Dinamo Minsk
Slavia Mozyr
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina