The contest between Bate Borisov and FC Isloch Minsk R. is a tight one, with the model favouring a home victory but leaving the outcome far from settled. The predicted probabilities are 38% for a Bate win, 27% for a draw and 36% for an Isloch triumph. The average number of goals expected is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability, a tidy reflection of the evenly matched teams.
Bate, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Isloch, on the road, also nets 2.0 on average but concedes 1.5. The recent form underlines the fine balance: Bate come off a win, while Isloch remain unbeaten in their last five.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 82.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.9% (missed), and Over 8.5 corners at 70.0% (hit). Each of these probabilities is presented separately, with no additional commentary.
The upset came as Bate Borisov, the pre-match favourite with a 38% chance, fell short, losing 0-1 to FC Isloch Minsk R. The model’s pick was wrong, while the actual result was an away win. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 80.9%, missed, but its choice of Over 8.5 corners, at 70%, hit. Bate’s recent form - coming off a win - had suggested resilience, yet Isloch’s unbeaten run of five kept them in control. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect, underscoring the unpredictability of the Belarus Premier League.
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.11 | 0.44 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.14 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 2.12 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-22pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Isloch Minsk R. goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 12% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Bate Borisov
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (9) | 8.5 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (1) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 100% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 43% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 50% | 0% | 67% | 67% | 100% | 57% | - | - | - |
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (10) | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 0% | 25% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 90% | 100% | 75% | - | - | - |
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.12 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 89% (+57pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.22 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.11 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.14 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.00 | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 78% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.10 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bate Borisov| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 13/05/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/05/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/04/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/04/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/04/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 20/03/22 | A | 0-3 |
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/22 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/05/22 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/05/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 07/05/22 | A | 1-3 | |
| 01/05/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/04/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/04/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/04/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/03/22 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Shakhter Soligorsk | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 55 | 17 | +38 | 2.4 | 63% | 40% | 20% | 11.4 | 75% | 5.0 | 75% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 2.6 | 73% | 50% | 30% | 7.8 | 0% | 2.7 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | - |
| 3 | Bate Borisov | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 73% | 53% | 23% | 10.2 | 62% | 5.0 | 83% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Dinamo Minsk | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 37% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 51 | 33 | +18 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 30% | 10.3 | 71% | 4.5 | 67% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 30 | 44 | 40% | 1.5 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 40% | 10.7 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Torpedo Zhodino | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 2.2 | 57% | 37% | 27% | 8.5 | 25% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 8 | Neman | 30 | 41 | 30% | 1.4 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 27% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Gomel | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 2.3 | 67% | 47% | 20% | 9.0 | 62% | 3.8 | 60% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 40% | 13.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | FC Slutsk | 30 | 32 | 23% | 1.1 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 2.2 | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.4 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 12 | Belshina | 30 | 30 | 20% | 1.0 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 2.9 | 73% | 60% | 47% | 10.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 71% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Dinamo Brest | 30 | 27 | 17% | 0.9 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 2.4 | 70% | 43% | 30% | 10.1 | 57% | 4.7 | 86% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 32 | 26 | 19% | 0.8 | 22 | 47 | -25 | 2.2 | 66% | 38% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | FC Vitebsk | 30 | 22 | 13% | 0.7 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.6 | 77% | 47% | 23% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.2 | 62% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 30 | 12 | 10% | 0.4 | 21 | 73 | -52 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 17 | ML Vitebsk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | - |