Bate Borisov and FC Minsk face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39% for Bate, 28% for a draw and 33% for Minsk. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% chance. Bate’s home form shows an average of 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Minsk’s away record averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.9%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%). Bate’s recent draw and Minsk’s recent win streak add intrigue, but the model’s pick remains a home victory.
Results analysis
Bate Borisov’s recent win over FC Minsk extended a modest run, and the Pythia model’s favourite - a home victory - proved correct as Bate secured a 2-1 triumph. The model had given the home side a 39% chance, while the draw and away win probabilities were 28% and 33% respectively. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.5%, but the 2-1 result, the most probable 2-goal outcome, came through. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.5%, and Under 5.5 at 94.3%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
38.6%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.29
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Dafabet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.14
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
FC Minsk win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.95
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.07
Marathonbet
3.06
Pinnacle
2.98
Dafabet
2.95
Superbet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.50
1.57
1.12
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (19)
1.05
1.95
1.00
2.00
1.10
1.90
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
3.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.53
1.42
1.67
1.61
1.44
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.67
1.25
3.00
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.05
1.50
1.00
1.85
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
@ 1.30+5.7%
Under 1.5
23.7%
@ 3.12-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
Pinnacle
3.11
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 2.01+3.9%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.76-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 3.40+1.7%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.25-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.38
1xBet
3.38
Under
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.75+3.2%
No
44.0%
@ 1.96-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
No
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.51+5.5%
2-1 ✓
8.6%@ 8.85+3.6%
1-0
8.3%@ 7.21+2.2%
0-0
8.0%@ 8.57+2.8%
1-2
7.9%@ 10.22+3.6%
0-1
7.5%@ 8.36+2.2%
2-0
6.7%@ 10.90+2.6%
0-2
5.6%@ 13.98+2.4%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
FC Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.5%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.3%
13%
7.9%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.6%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = FC Minsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Bate Borisov is 0.10 points better than FC Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Bate Borisov is 0.17 goals worse than FC Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Bate Borisov is 0.17 goals better than FC Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Bate Borisov is 1.5 percentage points worse than FC Minsk in terms of average possession (46% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
For 2.5 · Against 8.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.0 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Minsk
For 5.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 8.0 · Total 17.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
-
11.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
28.2
-
28.2
vs Stronger (6)
11.0
-
11.0
2.7
1.0
3.5
34.0
-
34.0
vs Similar (35)
11.3
-
11.3
3.3
2.8
3.8
26.3
-
26.3
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
3.4
4.4
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
44%
40%
48%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
56%
60%
52%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
15.0
7.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
17.2
15.0
17.8
vs Stronger (12)
2.0
-
2.0
1.7
2.5
1.2
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (38)
10.2
15.0
8.7
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.8
15.0
21.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
100%
25%
26%
32%
21%
20%
0%
25%
% under line
60%
0%
75%
74%
68%
79%
80%
100%
75%
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
Bate Borisov
11.2
ML Vitebsk
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Belshina
10.8
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.7
Naftan
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
FC Minsk
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.4
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.1
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
34.4
Torpedo Zhodino
30.0
FC Gomel
28.7
Bate Borisov
28.2
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
27.5
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
26.4
FC Dnepr Mogilev
23.2
Belshina
23.0
Neman
21.8
Naftan
21.5
FC Vitebsk
20.2
Arsenal (Belarus)
19.7
FC Minsk
17.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.0%
@ 2.12+14.5%
Under 9.5
42.0%
@ 1.63-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.07
Under
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.58
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bate Borisov or Draw✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.34
Edge
-2.1%
39%
28%
33%
covers Bate Borisov + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
SBO
1.30
Bate Borisov or FC Minsk✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.2%
39%
28%
33%
covers Bate Borisov + FC Minsk
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.25
Draw or FC Minsk✗ Miss
61.4%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.53
Edge
+0.9%
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + FC Minsk
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
SBO
1.48
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.6%
@ 1.25+2.0%
Under
24.4%
@ 3.49-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.1%
@ 2.29+0.4%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.57-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.54
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 5.22-0.9%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.12+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.15
1xBet
5.10
Under
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bate Borisov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.5%
@ 1.36+4.6%
Under
27.5%
@ 2.88-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Under
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Superbet
2.87
FC Minsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.74+3.0%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.41-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.78
Superbet
2.72
1xBet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
FC Minsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 6.97+0.8%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.06-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Under
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
FC Minsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bate Borisov, so a minus line means Bate Borisov give that many goals of a start and FC Minsk receive them. At -1, Bate Borisov must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bate Borisov win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bate Borisov)Actual: FC Minsk
Bate Borisov -2
7.0%
@ 6.60-5.2%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 4.75-5.1%
FC Minsk +2
81.3%
@ 1.13+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Bate Borisov)Actual: Draw
Bate Borisov -1
18.7%
@ 4.55-1.2%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 4.05-2.5%
FC Minsk +1
61.4%
@ 1.57+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.55
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Marathonbet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Bate Borisov)Actual: Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov +1
66.9%
@ 1.35-0.3%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.75-1.0%
FC Minsk -1
15.0%
@ 6.60+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Bate Borisov)Actual: Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov +2
85.0%
Draw +2
9.9%
FC Minsk -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.12
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.89
0.44
0.78
0.10
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.75
0.92
0.78
0.61
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.62
0.75
0.62
0.85
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.40+4.4%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 2.71-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
William Hil
1.36
Under
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.77
Superbet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.3%
@ 2.88+3.3%
Under 1.5
64.7%
@ 1.36-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.94
1xBet
2.94
Superbet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Under
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 7.47+0.2%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.70
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Under
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.2%
@ 2.03+3.5%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.71-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 6.90+0.2%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.06-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.5%
@ 2.29+1.0%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.55-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 8.80+1.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.03-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.80
Under
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.79
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.79
1.05
0.56
1.22
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.75
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.43
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.24+3.7%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 3.58-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Superbet
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.9%
@ 2.19+1.4%
Under 1.5
56.1%
@ 1.62-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.5%
@ 4.81+1.3%
Under 2.5
79.5%
@ 1.14-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.75
Under
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.6%
@ 1.72+0.8%
Under
45.4%
@ 2.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
1.97
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.3%
@ 4.62-0.6%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.15+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.6%
@ 1.90+1.1%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.79-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 5.83+5.9%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.09-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.70
Under
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.05
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
86.3%
1.05
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.15
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.14
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-
-
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.36
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
1.31
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.25
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.40
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
William Hil
1.36
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
1.69
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
-
-
+15.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Bate Borisov and FC Minsk have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Bate Borisov and FC Minsk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov and FC Minsk have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bate Borisov and FC Minsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)