This Belarus Premier League matchup between Bate Borisov and FC Vitebsk on August 15th is finely balanced, with Bate Borisov coming off a draw against Baranovichi and FC Vitebsk on a 4-game winning run. Bate Borisov holds a slight edge, with a 38% chance of a home win, 28% chance of a draw, and 35% chance of an away win, as predicted by the model. The model's selection is a home win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%. Bate Borisov has scored an average of 1.09 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.82 goals. FC Vitebsk has scored 1.64 goals away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.09 goals. The model suggests selecting Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), and Over 1.5 goals (77.8%), with an edge of 77.8% in the latter. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 35%.
Results analysis
Today was a tough day for the model's selections, and it's clear that the form storyline didn't quite play out as expected. Bate Borisov's win extends their run of performances, but the model's call on Home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 38%. However, the model's selection was not the only one to miss out on the action, as Over 1.5 goals was also missed despite its high probability of 77.7%. The final score was 1-0, and the actual result was indeed a home win. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of the draw, with a probability of 28%, was not even on the table.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.73
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
888Sport
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.07
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Dafabet
3.10
888Sport
2.90
FC Vitebsk win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.48
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.54
Pinnacle
2.51
Dafabet
2.47
888Sport
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.43
1.57
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.85
0.89
2.00
1.09
1.73
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
3.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.07
1.07
1.38
1.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.27
1.17
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.38+11.3%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 2.73-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
888Sport
2.75
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 2.27+11.2%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.59-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
888Sport
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 4.27+8.8%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.17-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
888Sport
4.20
Under
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.93+9.6%
No
42.5%
@ 1.77-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
No
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
888Sport
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.57+5.3%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.78+4.1%
1-2
8.1%@ 9.25+3.4%
1-0 ✓
7.7%@ 6.87+1.3%
0-0
7.4%@ 7.68+1.7%
0-1
7.2%@ 6.54+0.6%
2-0
6.3%@ 12.88+2.9%
2-2
5.8%@ 15.71+3.0%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
FC Vitebsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.7%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = FC Vitebsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Bate Borisov is 0.97 points worse than FC Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 2.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Bate Borisov is 0.29 goals worse than FC Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Bate Borisov is 0.86 goals worse than FC Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Bate Borisov is 0.5 percentage points better than FC Vitebsk in terms of average possession (46% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
For 3.0 · Against 8.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Vitebsk
For 3.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
-
11.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
26.3
-
26.3
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
2.3
1.7
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
11.3
-
11.3
3.4
3.0
3.8
26.3
-
26.3
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
3.2
4.4
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
42%
40%
44%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
58%
60%
56%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
10.0
6.0
2.8
2.7
2.8
22.5
26.0
19.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
1.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
8.0
10.0
6.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
22.5
26.0
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
42%
38%
46%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
58%
62%
54%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.3
Torpedo Zhodino
11.0
Naftan
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Brest
10.5
Dinamo Minsk
10.3
Slavia Mozyr
10.0
FC Gomel
10.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
9.6
Baranovichi
9.5
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.5
ML Vitebsk
8.5
Neman
8.3
FC Vitebsk
8.0
FC Minsk
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
ML Vitebsk
5.5
Belshina
5.0
Baranovichi
4.0
Bate Borisov
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Slavia Mozyr
3.3
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Neman
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
FC Minsk
2.8
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
39.0
Torpedo Zhodino
33.0
FC Gomel
29.0
Dinamo Brest
28.5
Bate Borisov
26.3
Dinamo Minsk
25.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.0
Baranovichi
25.0
Belshina
24.0
Slavia Mozyr
23.7
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
FC Vitebsk
22.5
Naftan
22.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
20.6
Neman
18.5
FC Minsk
17.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.4%
@ 1.96-2.9%
Under 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.75+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.8%
Under 21.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.85
0.44
0.78
0.18
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.43
0.79
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.58
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.70
1.00
0.44
1.22
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.64
0.29
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.69
0.75
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.0%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+4.1%
-
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.38
888Sport
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
-
+11.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Bate Borisov's squad is €1m more valuable than FC Vitebsk's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Bate Borisov and FC Vitebsk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov's midfield is €1m more valuable than FC Vitebsk's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bate Borisov and FC Vitebsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)