Bate Borisov’s recent 2-1 win over FC Minsk gives the home side a brief lift, yet the model still favours an away victory for ML Vitebsk, reflecting the latter’s strong away form and Bate’s struggle against stronger opponents at home. The predicted outcome is an away win, with a 63% chance, followed by a 22% draw and a 15% home win. The match is expected to see an average of three goals, with the most likely total of two goals at a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Vitebsk, carrying a 10.6% chance. Bate averages two goals scored and conceded at home against tougher teams, while Vitebsk scores 2.27 and concedes only 0.53 on the road against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 90.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.5% (miss), Under 4.5 cards at 79.3%, and Under 25.5 fouls at 77.2%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, ML Vitebsk, was expected to win with a 63% probability, but Bate Borisov pulled off a 1-0 home victory, extending their recent win streak. The model’s call was wrong, as the actual result was a home win. The suggested pick “Over 1.5” had an 81.5% chance yet missed, with only one goal scored. The most likely scoreline was 0-2, but the match finished 1-0. Bate’s home form had just come off a win, while Vitebsk’s away form also ended on a victory, yet the outcome defied expectations. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bate Borisov win✓ Hit
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.77
1.57
2.21
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.90
0.90
2.30
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.33
3.67
2.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.63
1.73
0.73
2.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
2.00
0.66
1.71
0.79
2.27
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.6%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.2%
0-3
7.4%
1-3
6.9%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.6%
Bate Borisov goals ↓
ML Vitebsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
9.2%
11%
7.4%
3.9%
1
3.6%
10%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.1%
4.4%
4.6%
3.2%
1.7%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bate Borisov goals (down), columns = ML Vitebsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Bate Borisov is 0.93 points worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Bate Borisov is 0.50 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Bate Borisov is 0.83 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bate Borisov
For 4.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ML Vitebsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.0
-
13.0
3.1
2.9
3.4
29.0
-
29.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
2.8
2.5
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
13.0
-
13.0
3.1
2.6
3.7
29.0
-
29.0
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
3.3
4.2
2.2
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
42%
32%
52%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
58%
68%
48%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (49)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
FC Slutsk
12.2
Naftan
12.0
Torpedo Zhodino
11.3
FC Gomel
11.3
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Bate Borisov
11.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Neman
10.7
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Slavia Mozyr
8.8
FC Vitebsk
8.7
FC Minsk
8.0
Smorgon
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Bate Borisov
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.2
Naftan
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Dinamo Brest
3.1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.9
FC Minsk
2.9
FC Slutsk
2.8
Neman
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.5%
Under 21.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.71
0.86
0.31
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.85
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.72
0.31
0.64
0.43
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.97
0.86
1.36
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
2.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.05
0.50
1.30
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.83
2.00
1.33
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.28
0.34
1.07
0.36
1.47
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Bate Borisov's squad is €9m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€4m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Bate Borisov's attack is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Bate Borisov's midfield is €1m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Bate Borisov's defence is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €5m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina