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BATE II vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 Result & Analysis

Date: 12/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
BATE II
BATE II
Vs
48%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance for BATE II, 27% for a draw and 25% for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a lively match, though the most likely total is 2 goals, at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. BATE II, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Molodechno-DYuSSh 4, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selection for this fixture is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.4% probability. Recent form shows BATE II coming off a draw, whereas Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 is on a four-game winning streak. All figures are presented as percentages and no other outcomes are assigned win probabilities.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 edged BATE II 1-0, ending the home side’s recent draw and halting their mixed run of DWWLL. The pre-match favourite was the home win, given a 48% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win, with the away side on a four-game winning streak. The model’s only other selection, Over 1.5 goals at 77.4%, missed as the match finished with a single goal. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 12.8% did not materialise, and the expected total of 2.8 goals was far below the actual tally.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BATE II win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D00D13L10W01L62W12L10W01L10WA·ORS01/06H·SLO08/06A·ABF14/06H·BUM23/06A·BEL30/06H·TOR07/07A·VOL20/07H·NIV26/07A·ML 01/08A·BAR05/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.111.880.881.201.30
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (15)1.731.202.331.001.331.33
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %28% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L50W20W30W00D10W30W33D11D20WA·BUM02/06H·BEL08/06A·TOR14/06H·VOL23/06A·NIV29/06H·ML 07/07A·BAR21/07H·FC 27/07H·OST31/07H·SHA04/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.332.250.941.501.79
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (25)1.841.482.311.151.331.83
vs Weaker (4)2.500.752.500.002.501.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
0-1 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
BATE II goals ↓
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals →
01234
07.5%5.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
19.2%13%6.6%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.5%5.4%2.0%0.6%
34.6%5.2%2.9%1.1%0.3%
41.9%2.1%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BATE II goals (down), columns = Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
BATE II is 0.79 points worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 2.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
BATE II is 0.47 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
BATE II is 0.82 goals worse than Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 0.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BATE IIBATE II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L10W00D12L02L10W00D00DA·ORS01/06H·SLO08/06A·ABF14/06H·BUM23/06A·BEL30/06H·TOR07/07A·VOL20/07H·NIV26/07A·ML 01/08A·BAR05/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.500.750.500.60
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (15)0.530.730.500.830.560.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W20W20W00D10W20W11D10W10WA·BUM02/06H·BEL08/06A·TOR14/06H·VOL23/06A·NIV29/06H·ML 07/07A·BAR21/07H·FC 27/07H·OST31/07H·SHA04/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.671.060.380.791.00
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.761.080.460.751.08
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BATE IIBATE II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D00D12L00D01L50W10W00D01L10WA·ORS01/06H·SLO08/06A·ABF14/06H·BUM23/06A·BEL30/06H·TOR07/07A·VOL20/07H·NIV26/07A·ML 01/08A·BAR05/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.441.380.120.700.70
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (15)1.200.471.830.170.780.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %61% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Molodechno-DYuSSh 4) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D10W00D00D10W22D01L10WA·BUM02/06H·BEL08/06A·TOR14/06H·VOL23/06A·NIV29/06H·ML 07/07A·BAR21/07H·FC 27/07H·OST31/07H·SHA04/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.190.560.710.79
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (25)0.920.721.230.690.580.75
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.500.001.501.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
BATE II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
BATE II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
BATE II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
BATE II and Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BI wins
0
Draws
1
M4 wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BATE II vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · H/A from BI
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs BI3-1

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/24ABaranovichi Vs BI0-1
01/08/24AML Vitebsk Vs BI1-0
26/07/24HBI Vs Niva1-0
20/07/24AVolna Vs BI2-1
07/07/24HBI Vs Torpedo BelAZ II6-2
30/06/24ABelshina Vs BI1-0
23/06/24HBI Vs Bumprom1-0
14/06/24AABFF U17 Vs BI3-1
08/06/24HBI Vs Slonim0-0
01/06/24AOrsha Vs BI1-1

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/24HM4 Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov2-0
31/07/24HM4 Vs Ostrovets FC1-1
27/07/24HM4 Vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3-3
21/07/24ABaranovichi Vs M40-3
07/07/24HM4 Vs ML Vitebsk1-0
29/06/24ANiva Vs M40-0
23/06/24HM4 Vs Volna3-0
14/06/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs M40-2
08/06/24HM4 Vs Belshina5-0
02/06/24ABumprom Vs M42-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BATE II
BATE II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.72
HomeDDWWW2.25
AwayLLLLW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%40%
AVG goals2.612.752.50
Over 1.5 %67%62%70%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %28%25%30%
Scored1.501.881.20
Conceded1.110.881.30
BTTS61%62%60%
Clean Sheet28%38%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.68
HomeWWDDW2.00
AwayWLWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%62%33%
AVG goals3.163.273.04
Over 1.5 %86%85%88%
Over 2.5 %64%73%54%
Over 3.5 %36%42%29%
Scored1.782.191.33
Conceded1.381.081.71
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet36%42%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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