Pythia gives Bayer Leverkusen a 64% win probability against Hamburger SV in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-16, with 21% for the draw and 15% for Hamburger SV. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (9.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (87%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 2.5 cards (83%), Under 23.5 fouls (76%).
Results analysis
Bayer Leverkusen finished 1-1 against Hamburger SV (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 64% home win, 21% draw and 15% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (87%), Over 1.5 (86%), Over 2.5 cards (83%), Under 23.5 fouls (76%), Under 11.5 corners (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen win✗ Miss
63.9%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.6%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.29
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV win✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied 10.6% · @ 8.83
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.27
2.00
1.21
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.89
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
1.53
2.29
1.43
1.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.56
1.25
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.83
1.00
1.50
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.57
1.82
1.18
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.28-8.2%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 3.48+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.9%
Under 3.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1 ✓
9.4%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.4%
1-0
7.2%
3-0
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
1-2
4.5%
Bayer Leverkusen goals ↓
Hamburger SV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
2.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.2%
9.4%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.0%
7.4%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.0%
4.2%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bayer Leverkusen goals (down), columns = Hamburger SV goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.62 points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.82 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.21 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
Bayer Leverkusen is 13.8 percentage points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average possession (59% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen
For 6.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 9.8 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
For 3.3 · Against 7.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayer Leverkusen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.4
4.4
4.3
4.5
19.6
18.9
20.2
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
7.0
12.5
4.1
5.8
2.5
16.4
19.2
13.5
vs Similar (11)
9.9
10.7
9.0
3.4
3.5
3.2
18.5
17.7
19.6
vs Weaker (31)
9.4
10.1
8.8
4.9
4.2
5.4
20.8
19.3
22.0
% over line
54%
58%
50%
54%
58%
50%
38%
29%
46%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
46%
42%
50%
62%
71%
54%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
5.1
4.9
5.4
24.0
23.7
24.3
vs Stronger (7)
10.3
10.5
10.0
4.6
4.8
4.3
23.0
23.2
22.7
vs Similar (23)
9.5
9.5
9.5
5.2
4.8
5.7
24.7
24.8
24.6
vs Weaker (20)
10.0
9.3
10.5
5.2
5.2
5.3
23.6
22.6
24.5
% over line
48%
44%
52%
74%
72%
76%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
26%
28%
24%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
23.0
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
22.0
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Werder Bremen
20.7
1. FC Köln
20.6
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.3%
Under 9.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.7%
Under 3.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
39.2%
Under 21.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bayer Leverkusen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.86
0.64
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.20
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
1.00
0.86
1.14
0.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.75
0.69
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.76
0.91
0.73
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →