Bayer Leverkusen’s home form, averaging 2.29 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against weaker opponents, makes the model pick a home win. The Bundesliga side’s recent five-match run of LDLWW, after a 2-3 loss to SV Elversberg, shows resilience that the model values. Union Berlin, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.33 goals scored and concedes 3.0, and their last five of DWWDL ended in a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt, indicating a defensive struggle. The model therefore rates a 64% chance of a Leverkusen victory, a 20% draw probability, and a 16% chance of an Union win. With an expected total of 3.4 goals, the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Leverkusen at 9.7%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 7.5 (97.9%), Home +2 handicap (95.3%), Under 6.5 (94.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (93.5%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen win
64.5%
Avg Implied 65.3% · @ 1.45
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.46
Draw
20.0%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.84
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.20
1xBet
5.03
Pinnacle
5.03
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Union Berlin win
15.5%
Avg Implied 15.2% · @ 6.20
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.14
1.38
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
1.82
1.27
2.00
1.40
1.67
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.38
2.29
1.00
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.67
1.60
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.14
1.50
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.52
1.73
1.64
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.0%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Under 1.5
13.0%
@ 5.94-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.42+1.7%
Under 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.75-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.9%
@ 2.09+0.4%
Under 3.5
54.1%
@ 1.75-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.56+2.0%
No
38.4%
@ 2.30-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
William Hil
2.38
BetVictor
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%@ 7.65+3.5%
1-1
8.9%@ 9.24+3.9%
2-0
8.7%@ 8.53+3.2%
3-1
7.6%@ 9.72+2.8%
3-0
6.8%@ 10.42+2.4%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.49+1.6%
2-2
5.3%@ 13.54+1.9%
1-2
4.5%@ 17.00+1.8%
Bayer Leverkusen goals ↓
Union Berlin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
1
6.5%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.7%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.8%
7.6%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
4
4.0%
4.5%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bayer Leverkusen goals (down), columns = Union Berlin goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.59 points better than Union Berlin in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.71 goals better than Union Berlin in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Bayer Leverkusen is 0.32 goals better than Union Berlin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Bayer Leverkusen is 18.9 percentage points better than Union Berlin in terms of average possession (59% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen
For 7.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 10.4 · Total 18.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Union Berlin
For 4.9 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 8.5 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayer Leverkusen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.5
4.4
4.5
19.7
18.8
20.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
5.7
14.7
4.3
7.0
1.7
16.0
19.3
12.7
vs Similar (17)
10.0
10.6
9.4
4.0
4.3
3.6
19.1
18.7
19.5
vs Weaker (27)
9.1
10.2
8.3
4.8
3.8
5.6
21.0
18.8
22.7
% over line
54%
58%
50%
54%
58%
50%
38%
29%
46%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
46%
42%
50%
62%
71%
54%
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.6
3.9
4.3
3.5
21.6
22.4
20.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.6
10.7
10.5
3.5
4.3
2.7
19.6
19.5
19.7
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.1
4.2
3.8
22.3
23.2
21.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
52%
62%
42%
40%
42%
38%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
48%
38%
58%
60%
58%
62%
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.5%
@ 1.70+0.9%
Under 9.5
44.5%
@ 2.04-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Unibet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.5%
Under 3.5
45.7%
@ 1.86-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
32.9%
@ 1.85-17.8%
Under 21.5
67.1%
@ 1.90+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw
86.7%
Avg Implied 84.4% · @ 1.12
Edge
+2.3%
64%
20%
16%
covers Bayer Leverkusen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin
80.4%
Avg Implied 81.0% · @ 1.16
Edge
-0.6%
64%
20%
16%
covers Bayer Leverkusen + Union Berlin
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Draw or Union Berlin
32.8%
Avg Implied 34.6% · @ 2.73
Edge
-1.8%
64%
20%
16%
covers Draw + Union Berlin
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.77
Betano
2.77
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5
Over
90.5%
@ 1.05+1.8%
Under
9.5%
@ 8.32-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5
Over
68.2%
@ 1.37-0.2%
Under
31.8%
@ 2.96+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5
Over
41.9%
@ 2.17-1.1%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.64+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
Under
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 3.5
Over
21.2%
@ 4.00-2.0%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.21+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.38
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Union Berlin over/under 0.5
Over
62.5%
@ 1.44-2.1%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.63+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Union Berlin over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
@ 3.16-3.9%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
Unibet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Union Berlin over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
@ 8.21-3.7%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.80
Unibet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Union Berlin over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 21.25-2.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
1xBet
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bayer Leverkusen, so a minus line means Bayer Leverkusen give that many goals of a start and Union Berlin receive them. At -1, Bayer Leverkusen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bayer Leverkusen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bayer Leverkusen)
Bayer Leverkusen -2
25.4%
@ 3.52-0.0%
Draw -2
20.0%
@ 4.33-0.7%
Union Berlin +2
54.6%
@ 1.66+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betfair
1.62
Handicap -1 (Bayer Leverkusen)
Bayer Leverkusen -1
45.4%
@ 2.07+1.9%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.79-2.0%
Union Berlin +1
32.8%
@ 2.77+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Handicap +1 (Bayer Leverkusen)
Bayer Leverkusen +1
86.7%
@ 1.11+6.3%
Draw +1
8.6%
@ 7.29-3.7%
Union Berlin -1
4.7%
@ 12.17-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Handicap +2 (Bayer Leverkusen)
Bayer Leverkusen +2
95.3%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Draw +2
3.5%
@ 19.00-1.5%
Union Berlin -2
1.2%
@ 40.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bayer Leverkusen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.81
0.86
0.57
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.60
0.73
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.78
0.64
0.82
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.3%
@ 1.22-1.2%
Under 0.5
24.7%
@ 3.99+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.08-6.8%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.72+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
SBO
2.12
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
SBO
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 4.45-4.6%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.18+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.5%
@ 1.45-3.8%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.62+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.6%
@ 3.10-5.3%
Under
75.4%
@ 1.32+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.7%
@ 7.63-5.3%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.9%
@ 2.48-4.6%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.49+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 8.75-3.6%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.40
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 13.50-6.4%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bayer Leverkusen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.14
0.57
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.56
1.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Union Berlin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Union Berlin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.07
0.87
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.74
1.09
0.82
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.6%
@ 1.12+0.2%
Under 0.5
16.4%
@ 5.65-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.64-5.3%
Under 1.5
48.2%
@ 2.19+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
@ 2.96-7.5%
Under 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.36+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
71.2%
@ 1.28-1.7%
Under
28.8%
@ 3.45+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.40
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.2%
@ 2.31-7.1%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.55+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.0%
@ 5.07-9.4%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.14+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Union Berlin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.8%
@ 2.03-3.1%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.72+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.68
Union Berlin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
@ 6.14-5.9%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.09+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Union Berlin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 11.50-6.7%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Under 7.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Under 6.5
94.6%
1.04
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.03
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.03
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+3.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.14
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
-
-
+9.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+5.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
90.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.8%
Under 25.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.8%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.7%
Over 1.5
87.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+2.7%
Home or Draw
86.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+2.3%
Home +1 handicap
86.7%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+6.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+4.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+0.2%
Under 23.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.4%
1.16
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-0.6%
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
78.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+7.5%
Under 4.5
75.6%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+3.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.32
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+5.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-1.2%
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
1.39
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
-
-
-
+7.0%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
+3.9%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.2%
1.28
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-1.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bayer Leverkusen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrik Schick36%
Alex Grimaldo24%
Martin Terrier21%
Malik Tillman17%
Christian Kofane16%
Edmond Tapsoba11%
Jarell Quansah11%
Ernest Poku11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Aleix García10%
Ibrahim Maza9%
Robert Andrich7%
Arthur6%
Montrell Culbreath6%
Lucas Vázquez5%
Nathan Tella5%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Axel Tape0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmond Tapsoba27%
Jarell Quansah20%
Exequiel Palacios20%
Aleix García20%
Alex Grimaldo17%
Robert Andrich17%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Loïc Badé15%
Eliesse Ben Seghir13%
Axel Tape12%
Christian Kofane11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Ezequiel Fernández10%
Arthur10%
Malik Tillman10%
Nathan Tella9%
Claudio Echeverri9%
Ibrahim Maza7%
Janis Blaswich6%
Patrik Schick5%
Ernest Poku4%
Martin Terrier4%
Mark Flekken3%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alex Grimaldo24%
Aleix García20%
Nathan Tella18%
Ernest Poku18%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Ibrahim Maza14%
Christian Kofane14%
Arthur10%
Patrik Schick10%
Jonas Hofmann7%
Edmond Tapsoba5%
Martin Terrier4%
Exequiel Palacios4%
Ezequiel Fernández3%
Robert Andrich2%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Jarell Quansah0%
Malik Tillman0%
Loïc Badé0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik Schick31%
Christian Kofane20%
Ibrahim Maza18%
Nathan Tella14%
Alex Grimaldo13%
Malik Tillman5%
Jarell Quansah5%
Martin Terrier4%
Jonas Hofmann4%
Edmond Tapsoba2%
Ernest Poku2%
Lucas Vázquez0%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Robert Andrich0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Aleix García0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Arthur0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Union Berlin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Skov25%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Rani Khedira17%
Woo-Yeong Jeong16%
Andrej Ilić15%
Oliver Burke13%
Ilyas Ansah11%
Danilho Doekhi11%
Josip Juranović9%
Tom Rothe8%
Stanley N'Soki7%
András Schäfer6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Derrick Köhn3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Livan Burcu26%
Christopher Trimmel26%
Janik Haberer26%
Rani Khedira20%
Andrej Ilić18%
Leopold Querfeld18%
Derrick Köhn17%
Diogo Leite16%
Aljoscha Kemlein16%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke13%
András Schäfer10%
Josip Juranović9%
Frederik Rønnow6%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Alex Král5%
Tom Rothe4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Robert Skov0%
Tim Skarke0%
Carl Klaus0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dmytro Bogdanov33%
Andrej Ilić24%
Stanley N'Soki14%
Christopher Trimmel13%
Josip Juranović9%
Derrick Köhn7%
Oliver Burke6%
Janik Haberer6%
Aljoscha Kemlein6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tim Skarke4%
Woo-Yeong Jeong3%
András Schäfer3%
Rani Khedira3%
Ilyas Ansah3%
Danilho Doekhi3%
Diogo Leite0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Carl Klaus0%
Leopold Querfeld0%
Tom Rothe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić29%
Danilho Doekhi14%
Oliver Burke10%
Leopold Querfeld9%
Ilyas Ansah6%
Livan Burcu5%
Tom Rothe4%
Derrick Köhn3%
András Schäfer3%
Stanley N'Soki0%
Diogo Leite0%
Woo-Yeong Jeong0%
Alex Král0%
Robert Skov0%
Frederik Rønnow0%
Josip Juranović0%
Christopher Trimmel0%
Tim Skarke0%
Rani Khedira0%
Janik Haberer0%
Carl Klaus0%
Aljoscha Kemlein0%
Dmytro Bogdanov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Bayer Leverkusen's squad is €376m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€499m vs €123m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Bayer Leverkusen's attack is €199m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€246m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Bayer Leverkusen's midfield is €64m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€91m vs €26m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Bayer Leverkusen's defence is €112m more valuable than Union Berlin's (€162m vs €50m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart