Beitar Jerusalem vs Bnei Sakhnin Result & Analysis

Beitar Jerusalem’s recent 1-4 loss to Maccabi Netanya leaves the home side looking vulnerable, while Bnei Sakhnin’s 1-2 defeat to Maccabi Petah Tikva suggests they are still finding form away. The model favours an away win, assigning a 49% chance to Bnei Sakhnin, a 28% chance for a draw and 23% for Beitar to triumph. With an expected total of 2.6 goals, the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Beitar, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Bnei Sakhnin, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and only 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 70.9% and Under 11.5 corners at 70.0%.

The upset was stark: the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 49%, was denied as Beitar Jerusalem snatched a 2-1 home victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirms a home win. The model’s other selections all hit except the Under 11.5 corners, which missed. Over 2.5 cards came through at 86%, Over 1.5 at 74.2%, Under 3.5 at 73.9%, and Over 3.5 cards at 70.9%. The match saw Beitar, coming off a defeat, extend a run of losses, while Bnei Sakhnin, also coming off a loss, failed to overturn the deficit. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13.2% was not realized, but the 0-1 and 1-2 possibilities were close.