Pythia gives Beitar Jerusalem a 53% win probability against Hapoel Tel Aviv in the Israel: Ligat Ha'al on 2026-05-23, with 26% for the draw and 21% for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (92%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Under 11.5 corners (86%).
Results analysis
Beitar Jerusalem finished 1-1 against Hapoel Tel Aviv (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 53% home win, 26% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (92%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Under 11.5 corners (86%), Over 23.5 fouls (85%), Under 10.5 corners (78%), Over 1.5 (76%), Over 3.5 cards (75%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beitar Jerusalem win✗ Miss
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Tel Aviv win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beitar Jerusalem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.10
2.00
1.00
2.53
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
1.91
1.36
1.60
0.80
2.17
1.83
vs Similar (8)
2.62
0.75
3.00
1.25
2.25
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
1.09
1.67
1.00
3.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.90
1.87
0.47
0.87
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.45
1.80
0.80
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.25
1.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.82
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%
1-0
10.6%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Beitar Jerusalem goals ↓
Hapoel Tel Aviv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.7%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.5%
5.4%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beitar Jerusalem goals (down), columns = Hapoel Tel Aviv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Beitar Jerusalem is 0.34 points better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Beitar Jerusalem is 0.60 goals better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Beitar Jerusalem is 0.11 goals worse than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Beitar Jerusalem is 9.9 percentage points better than Hapoel Tel Aviv in terms of average possession (57% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Beitar Jerusalem
For 3.6 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 14.4 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Tel Aviv
For 4.9 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 16.9 · Total 29.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Beitar Jerusalem
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.4
7.8
3.6
3.1
4.1
28.8
28.9
28.7
vs Stronger (21)
7.5
7.9
7.1
4.0
3.7
4.2
29.7
30.0
29.4
vs Similar (11)
9.7
10.0
9.5
2.1
0.8
3.2
33.0
35.0
32.0
vs Weaker (18)
9.5
11.3
8.0
4.1
3.6
4.7
26.7
26.3
27.0
% over line
38%
47%
29%
52%
48%
56%
88%
80%
94%
% under line
62%
53%
71%
48%
52%
44%
12%
20%
6%
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.2
8.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
29.8
28.3
31.2
vs Stronger (12)
8.1
10.0
6.5
4.4
3.2
5.7
29.9
27.8
31.7
vs Similar (10)
9.7
9.5
10.0
2.3
3.2
1.0
33.0
32.0
35.0
vs Weaker (28)
8.9
8.4
9.4
2.3
2.5
2.1
28.6
27.4
29.8
% over line
38%
42%
33%
38%
35%
42%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
62%
58%
67%
62%
65%
58%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.4
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
9.1
Hapoel Haifa
9.0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8.9
Ashdod
8.8
Beitar Jerusalem
8.7
Maccabi Netanya
8.7
Maccabi Haifa
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
6.1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.6
Hapoel Haifa
5.5
Beitar Jerusalem
5.4
Maccabi Haifa
5.2
Ashdod
5.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
5.0
Bnei Sakhnin
4.8
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maccabi Tel Aviv
28.7
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.1
Beitar Jerusalem
27.7
Maccabi Haifa
27.4
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
26.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
26.0
Hapoel Haifa
25.9
Ashdod
25.3
Maccabi Netanya
25.1
Bnei Sakhnin
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
32.9%
Under 9.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.6%
Under 3.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.5%
Under 21.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beitar Jerusalem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.64
0.80
0.40
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.38
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.55
0.67
0.33
1.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Tel Aviv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.60
0.20
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.55
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.27
0.67
0.17
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Beitar Jerusalem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (38)
€46m
MH (46)
€30m
HBS (33)
€25m
BJ (39)
€20m
HTA (39)
€17m
MN (36)
€12m
HK (34)
€11m
HPT (36)
€9m
IKS (31)
€8m
ASH (42)
€8m
HH (40)
€7m
MBR (35)
€6m
IT (29)
€5m
BS (39)
€5m
Beitar Jerusalem's squad is €3m more valuable than Hapoel Tel Aviv's (€20m vs €17m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →