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Bellinzona vs Baden Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2024
Time: 17:30
Final 4-0
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Vs
44%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Bellinzona win✓ Hit
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baden win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W00D01L03L02L12L52W14L01LA·BAD04/02A·NEU09/02H·FC 17/02H·FC 28/02A·FC 03/03H·STA09/03A·FC 15/03H·FC 29/03A·FC 06/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.600.861.430.881.75
vs Stronger (10)1.001.901.402.000.601.80
vs Similar (20)0.801.450.561.111.001.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L01L23L13L11D02L21W01L03LH·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03H·FC 09/03A·FC 16/03H·FC 30/03A·STA05/04H·FC 13/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.862.030.932.130.791.93
vs Stronger (13)0.692.540.672.500.712.57
vs Similar (16)1.001.621.111.890.861.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.6%
Bellinzona goals ↓
Baden goals →
01234
010.0%7.7%4.6%1.6%0.4%
111%14%6.5%2.2%0.6%
28.7%8.9%4.6%1.6%0.4%
34.1%4.2%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.4%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bellinzona goals (down), columns = Baden goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
Bellinzona is 0.44 points better than Baden in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.72).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
Bellinzona is 0.22 goals better than Baden in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
Bellinzona is 0.89 goals better than Baden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 2.28).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D00D00D01L11D12L11D00DA·BAD04/02A·NEU09/02H·FC 17/02H·FC 28/02A·FC 03/03H·STA09/03A·FC 15/03H·FC 29/03A·FC 06/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.670.210.640.440.69
vs Stronger (10)0.300.800.201.000.400.60
vs Similar (20)0.350.600.220.440.450.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L00D10W01L10W00D11D01L01LH·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03H·FC 09/03A·FC 16/03H·FC 30/03A·STA05/04H·FC 13/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.930.400.800.431.07
vs Stronger (13)0.150.920.170.670.141.14
vs Similar (16)0.620.940.560.890.711.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %31% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D01L03L01L01L40W03L01LA·BAD04/02A·NEU09/02H·FC 17/02H·FC 28/02A·FC 03/03H·STA09/03A·FC 15/03H·FC 29/03A·FC 06/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.640.790.441.06
vs Stronger (10)0.701.101.201.000.201.20
vs Similar (20)0.450.850.330.670.551.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L01L13L12L01L02L10W00D02LH·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02A·FC 02/03H·FC 09/03A·FC 16/03H·FC 30/03A·STA05/04H·FC 13/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.100.531.330.360.86
vs Stronger (13)0.541.620.501.830.571.43
vs Similar (16)0.380.690.561.000.140.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %41% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BEL wins
1
Draws
1
BAD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bellinzona vs Baden · H/A from BEL
DateH/AGameScore
04/02/24ABaden Vs BEL2-1
26/11/23HBEL Vs Baden3-1
30/07/23ABaden Vs BEL1-1

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24AFC Thun Vs BEL1-0
06/04/24AFC WIL 1900 Vs BEL4-1
29/03/24HBEL Vs FC Aarau5-2
15/03/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs BEL2-1
09/03/24HBEL Vs Stade Nyonnais0-2
03/03/24AFC Sion Vs BEL3-0
28/02/24HBEL Vs FC Vaduz0-1
17/02/24HBEL Vs FC WIL 19000-0
09/02/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL0-1
04/02/24ABaden Vs BEL2-1

BadenBaden

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HBAD Vs FC Sion0-3
05/04/24AStade Nyonnais Vs BAD1-0
30/03/24HBAD Vs FC WIL 19002-1
16/03/24AFC Aarau Vs BAD2-0
09/03/24HBAD Vs FC Vaduz1-1
02/03/24AFC Thun Vs BAD3-1
24/02/24HBAD Vs Stade Nyonnais2-3
17/02/24HBAD Vs FC Schaffhausen0-1
09/02/24AFC Sion Vs BAD4-1
04/02/24HBAD Vs Bellinzona2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.92
HomeDDLLW1.04
AwayWLLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%29%19%
AVG goals2.522.502.54
Over 1.5 %70%62%77%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %22%29%15%
Scored0.840.920.77
Conceded1.681.581.77
BTTS44%33%54%
Clean Sheet20%29%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.83
HomeLLDWL0.80
AwayDLLLL0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%20%21%
AVG goals2.903.072.71
Over 1.5 %86%93%79%
Over 2.5 %52%60%43%
Over 3.5 %31%33%29%
Scored0.860.930.79
Conceded2.032.131.93
BTTS55%53%57%
Clean Sheet7%7%7%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC SionFC Sion3679
64%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
78%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
15692.00.6
-
2FC ThunFC Thun3676
64%
2.1
7338+35
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4582.01.1
-
3FC VaduzFC Vaduz3649
36%
1.4
6755+12
3.4
81%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
4Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
31%
1.4
5545+10
2.8
86%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.2
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003644
31%
1.2
4852-4
2.8
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.4
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau3643
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.6
-
7Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
83%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
8BellinzonaBellinzona3642
31%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.4
-
9FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3638
22%
1.1
3655-19
2.5
78%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10BadenBaden3626
17%
0.7
3182-51
3.1
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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