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Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 0-3
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Vs
38%
30%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bellinzona win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge win✓ Hit
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W31W15L22D01L06L00D13L11D00DH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05H·NEU02/08A·STA09/08A·FC 13/08A·FC 22/08H·YVE26/08A·STA29/08H·RAP13/09A·FC 27/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.361.291.002.25
vs Stronger (6)0.831.171.330.670.331.67
vs Similar (24)1.251.961.361.451.152.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L01L11D01L12L11D02L21W13LH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08A·NEU22/08H·STA26/08A·STA30/08H·YVE12/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.301.671.330.871.27
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.331.371.771.460.931.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.5%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.8%
Bellinzona goals ↓
Étoile Carouge goals →
01234
011%9.1%5.8%2.1%0.6%
110%14%7.3%2.7%0.7%
27.4%8.2%4.6%1.7%0.5%
33.1%3.4%1.9%0.7%0.2%
41.0%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bellinzona goals (down), columns = Étoile Carouge goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Bellinzona is 0.47 points worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Bellinzona is 0.17 goals worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Bellinzona is 0.64 goals worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D11D00D03L00D03L01L00DH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05H·NEU02/08A·STA09/08A·FC 13/08A·FC 22/08H·YVE26/08A·STA29/08H·RAP13/09A·FC 27/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.570.500.381.00
vs Stronger (6)0.500.330.670.330.330.33
vs Similar (24)0.460.880.550.550.381.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L00D10W00D01L10W00D11D01LH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08A·NEU22/08H·STA26/08A·STA30/08H·YVE12/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.501.000.400.530.60
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.810.481.080.380.570.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W04L11D01L03L00D10W10W00DH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05H·NEU02/08A·STA09/08A·FC 13/08A·FC 22/08H·YVE26/08A·STA29/08H·RAP13/09A·FC 27/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.030.790.790.621.25
vs Stronger (6)0.330.830.670.330.001.33
vs Similar (24)0.791.080.820.910.771.23
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L01L01L11D01L02L10W12LH·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08A·NEU22/08H·STA26/08A·STA30/08H·YVE12/09H·FC 26/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.670.930.330.67
vs Stronger (3)0.330.000.500.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.520.890.691.080.360.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Bellinzona and Étoile Carouge have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
BEL wins
3
Draws
1
ÉC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bellinzona vs Étoile Carouge · H/A from BEL
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs BEL7-0
22/02/25HBEL Vs Étoile Carouge0-0
22/11/24AÉtoile Carouge Vs BEL2-2
03/08/24HBEL Vs Étoile Carouge1-1

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs BEL0-0
13/09/25HBEL Vs Rapperswil1-1
29/08/25AStade Nyonnais Vs BEL3-1
26/08/25HBEL Vs Yverdon Sport0-0
22/08/25AFC Vaduz Vs BEL6-0
13/08/25AFC Aarau Vs BEL1-0
09/08/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs BEL2-2
02/08/25HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-5
23/05/25AFC Schaffhausen Vs BEL1-3
16/05/25HBEL Vs FC Thun3-1

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25HÉC Vs FC Aarau1-3
12/09/25HÉC Vs Yverdon Sport2-1
30/08/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs ÉC2-0
26/08/25HÉC Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
22/08/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC2-1
08/08/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs ÉC1-0
03/08/25HÉC Vs FC Vaduz1-1
25/07/25ARapperswil Vs ÉC1-0
23/05/25AFC Thun Vs ÉC1-0
16/05/25HÉC Vs FC Aarau1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDD1.18
HomeWWLDD1.33
AwayDLLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals2.902.583.19
Over 1.5 %88%83%92%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %32%21%42%
Scored1.241.211.27
Conceded1.661.381.92
BTTS68%67%69%
Clean Sheet14%17%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.34
HomeLDDWL1.77
AwayLLLLL0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%23%
AVG goals2.802.952.64
Over 1.5 %75%86%64%
Over 2.5 %57%59%55%
Over 3.5 %32%36%27%
Scored1.451.731.18
Conceded1.341.231.45
BTTS61%73%50%
Clean Sheet18%18%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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