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Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bellinzona win✗ Miss
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D22D21W21W21W21W12L00D11DA·STA26/07H·ÉTO03/08A·NEU09/08H·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.301.291.001.381.56
vs Stronger (9)1.221.111.251.001.201.20
vs Similar (21)1.381.381.301.001.451.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L31W22D04L41W21W32W01L21W03LA·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09H·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.502.061.191.211.86
vs Stronger (9)1.441.222.250.500.801.80
vs Similar (21)1.761.622.001.421.441.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.0%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.1%
Bellinzona goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
01234
08.9%7.4%4.9%1.8%0.5%
19.8%14%7.0%2.6%0.7%
28.0%9.0%5.1%1.9%0.5%
33.8%4.3%2.4%0.9%0.3%
41.4%1.6%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bellinzona goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Bellinzona is 0.17 points better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Bellinzona is 0.25 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Bellinzona is 0.22 goals better than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W12L20W11D00D10W02L00D11DA·STA26/07H·ÉTO03/08A·NEU09/08H·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.570.430.620.62
vs Stronger (9)0.220.440.250.750.200.20
vs Similar (21)0.760.570.700.300.820.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L21W01L11D01L01L00D20W01LA·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09H·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.940.560.210.93
vs Stronger (9)0.440.331.000.250.000.40
vs Similar (21)0.670.900.920.670.331.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W01L10W21W11D10W00D00DA·STA26/07H·ÉTO03/08A·NEU09/08H·FC 24/08A·FC 31/08A·FC 20/09H·STA24/09A·FC 29/09H·FC 04/10A·STA19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.710.570.750.94
vs Stronger (9)1.000.671.000.251.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.620.810.600.700.640.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W01L03L30W20W31W01L01L02LA·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09H·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.120.621.000.93
vs Stronger (9)1.000.891.250.250.801.40
vs Similar (21)1.100.711.080.751.110.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
BEL wins
3
Draws
3
NXF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · H/A from BEL
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL2-2
03/05/24HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-2
09/02/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL0-1
10/12/23HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-0
01/09/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL1-1
19/05/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL3-0
19/03/23HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-1
07/10/22ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL4-0

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs BEL1-1
04/10/24HBEL Vs FC Thun0-0
29/09/24AFC Vaduz Vs BEL2-1
24/09/24HBEL Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy2-1
20/09/24AFC Thun Vs BEL1-2
31/08/24AFC Aarau Vs BEL1-2
24/08/24HBEL Vs FC Schaffhausen2-1
09/08/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL2-2
03/08/24HBEL Vs Étoile Carouge1-1
26/07/24AStade Nyonnais Vs BEL2-1

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/24HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge0-3
04/10/24HNXF Vs FC Schaffhausen2-1
27/09/24AFC Thun Vs NXF1-0
23/09/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais3-2
20/09/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs NXF1-2
30/08/24HNXF Vs FC Vaduz4-1
23/08/24AFC WIL 1900 Vs NXF4-0
09/08/24HNXF Vs Bellinzona2-2
03/08/24AFC Aarau Vs NXF1-3
26/07/24AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.28
HomeWDWWD1.38
AwayDWWLD1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals2.602.382.81
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.161.171.15
Conceded1.441.211.65
BTTS54%42%65%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.44
HomeDWWWL1.73
AwayLWLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals3.063.272.83
Over 1.5 %88%92%83%
Over 2.5 %60%73%46%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.601.921.25
Conceded1.461.351.58
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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