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Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-5
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Vs
44%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bellinzona win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L11D07L31W21W22D31W11D31W31WA·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05A·STA09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.631.331.271.202.00
vs Stronger (7)1.141.571.251.501.001.67
vs Similar (23)1.301.651.361.181.252.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-662W12L11D00D02L13L12L31W23L11DH·FC 31/03A·FC 06/04H·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.731.621.881.211.57
vs Stronger (7)0.712.001.002.250.331.67
vs Similar (23)1.651.651.831.751.451.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.6%
Bellinzona goals ↓
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals →
01234
07.5%6.5%4.7%1.9%0.6%
18.6%13%7.2%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.2%5.6%2.3%0.7%
33.9%4.7%2.9%1.2%0.4%
41.5%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bellinzona goals (down), columns = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Bellinzona is 0.72 points worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Bellinzona is 0.42 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Bellinzona is 0.58 goals worse than Neuchatel Xamax FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D02L10W10W01L11D10W10W10WA·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05A·STA09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.530.600.400.93
vs Stronger (7)0.430.710.501.000.330.33
vs Similar (23)0.480.780.550.450.421.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D00D00D02L11D12L21W01L10WH·FC 31/03A·FC 06/04H·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.690.690.570.79
vs Stronger (7)0.290.710.500.750.000.67
vs Similar (23)0.740.740.750.670.730.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BellinzonaBellinzona

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D05L21W11D21W20W01L21W21WA·STA28/03H·FC 31/03A·ÉTO05/04H·FC 12/04H·STA18/04A·FC 27/04H·NEU03/05A·STA09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.870.800.670.801.07
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.750.500.671.33
vs Similar (23)0.830.870.820.730.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L11D00D00D02L00D10W22D01LH·FC 31/03A·FC 06/04H·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.000.941.190.640.79
vs Stronger (7)0.431.290.501.500.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.910.911.081.080.730.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bellinzona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bellinzona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bellinzona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Bellinzona and Neuchatel Xamax FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
BEL wins
3
Draws
2
NXF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · H/A from BEL
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC3-1
02/03/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL1-1
26/10/24HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-2
09/08/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL2-2
03/05/24HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-2
09/02/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL0-1
10/12/23HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC1-0
01/09/23ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BEL1-1

BellinzonaBellinzona

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/25AFC Schaffhausen Vs BEL1-3
16/05/25HBEL Vs FC Thun3-1
09/05/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs BEL1-1
03/05/25HBEL Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC3-1
27/04/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs BEL2-2
18/04/25HBEL Vs Stade Nyonnais2-1
12/04/25HBEL Vs FC Vaduz3-1
05/04/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs BEL7-0
31/03/25HBEL Vs FC Aarau1-1
28/03/25AStade Nyonnais Vs BEL3-0

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/25HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
23/05/25HNXF Vs FC WIL 19002-3
16/05/25AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-3
09/05/25HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge1-2
03/05/25ABellinzona Vs NXF3-1
25/04/25HNXF Vs FC Thun0-2
18/04/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF0-0
11/04/25HNXF Vs FC Aarau1-1
06/04/25AFC Vaduz Vs NXF2-1
31/03/25HNXF Vs FC Schaffhausen6-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bellinzona
Bellinzona
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.22
HomeDWWWW1.44
AwayLLDDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.962.723.20
Over 1.5 %90%84%96%
Over 2.5 %64%56%72%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.361.441.28
Conceded1.601.281.92
BTTS66%60%72%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.22
HomeDLLLD1.40
AwayLLDLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals3.163.482.84
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %68%72%64%
Over 3.5 %42%52%32%
Scored1.521.881.16
Conceded1.641.601.68
BTTS70%76%64%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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