The contest between Belshina and FC Minsk is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 38% respectively, while a draw is 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.4% chance. Belshina, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded. FC Minsk, on the road, averages 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 8.5 corners at 83%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.6%, Over 1.5 at 76.9% (hit), Over 9.5 corners at 73.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 71.9%, and Under 3.5 at 70.8% (miss). The match remains a tight one, with both sides showing recent form swings that keep the outcome uncertain.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Minsk, failed to deliver as the match ended 2-2, a draw that stunned the prediction model. Belshina’s recent form, a string of LWDLD, left them coming off a defeat, while FC Minsk, after three straight losses, had a run of LLLWW. The model’s pick of an away win, with a 38% probability, proved wrong. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5, at 76.9%, hit, while Under 3.5, at 70.8%, missed. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely scoreline of 1-1, 1-2, or 0-1, but the actual result was a draw, confirming the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Belshina win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.54
0.92
1.46
1.62
1.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.70
1.00
1.60
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.58
1.42
1.69
1.08
1.46
1.77
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.45
1.80
1.10
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
No
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.0%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
7.7%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.5%
2-2 ✓
5.6%
Belshina goals ↓
FC Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
8.0%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.6%
8.0%
5.6%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Belshina goals (down), columns = FC Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
Belshina is 0.47 points worse than FC Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
Belshina is 0.33 goals worse than FC Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
Belshina is 0.23 goals worse than FC Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Belshina
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
For 5.2 · Against 7.5 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
10.5
10.3
10.7
1.3
0.8
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
9.0
-
9.0
1.5
0.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.8
10.3
11.5
1.2
1.0
1.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
15%
8%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
33%
67%
85%
92%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
12.8
9.0
16.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
13.0
-
13.0
0.7
0.0
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
12.7
9.0
20.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
12%
8%
15%
-
-
-
% under line
25%
50%
0%
88%
92%
85%
-
-
-
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.6
FC Minsk
12.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.8
Belshina
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
FC Gomel
9.4
Neman
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.8
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.5
FC Minsk
5.3
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Gomel
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
73.8%
Under 9.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.69
0.46
0.69
0.54
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.70
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.46
1.00
0.23
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.55
1.00
0.30
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
69% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.85
0.46
0.77
1.08
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.85
1.00
0.60
0.90
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.96
0.69
0.85
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.90
0.80
0.80
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 8.5 corners
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Belshina's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Minsk's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
Belshina and FC Minsk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Belshina and FC Minsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Belshina and FC Minsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →