Belshina vs Naftan Result & Analysis

The contest between Belshina and Naftan is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. A draw is 30% and an away win 32%. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2% chance. Belshina, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Naftan, on the road to a team of similar strength, averages 1.0 scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 85.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 84.6%, Under 3.5 at 76.5%, Over 9.5 corners at 76.0% and Over 1.5 at 71.8%. Both sides have been in rough patches: Belshina’s last five are LWDLD, coming off a 0-1 loss to FC Gomel, while Naftan’s last five are LLLWD, after three straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to FC Vitebsk. The match remains finely balanced, but the model’s pick points to a home victory.

The pre-match favourite, Belshina, failed to deliver as the game ended 0-3 in favour of Naftan, a result that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had selected a home win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 85.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 84.6%, Under 3.5 at 76.5%, Over 9.5 corners at 76.0%, and Over 1.5 at 71.8%. Naftan’s form, after three straight defeats, proved resilient, while Belshina’s recent run of losses left them vulnerable. The final score of 0-3 confirms the upset and the model’s misjudgement of the favourite.