The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance for Neman, 29% for a draw and 28% for Belshina. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely total number of goals is 2, with a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.8% chance. Belshina, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 1.5. Neman, on the road to a weaker side, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 81.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 76.2%, Under 3.5 at 75.3%, Over 1.5 at 73.0%, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.5%. These picks reflect the expected intensity of the match. The recent form shows Belshina coming off a draw, while Neman is on a three-game winning streak. The final score ended 1-0 in favour of the home side.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Belshina snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the pre-match favourite, Neman, who had been tipped to win with a 44% chance. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result contradicted the expected 2.5-goal total. Belshina, coming off a draw in their last five, managed to hold off a Neman side that had been on a three-game winning streak. The model’s Under 3.5 selection hit with a 75.3% probability, while its Over 1.5 pick missed at 73.0%. The match finished 1-0, a home win that defied the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Belshina win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neman win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.54
0.92
1.58
1.67
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.20
0.50
1.50
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.63
1.00
1.60
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.12
1.42
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.11
1.44
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
9.3%
1-2
9.0%
0-2
8.2%
1-0 ✓
7.5%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
Belshina goals ↓
Neman goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
10%
8.2%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.5%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.5%
2
4.8%
6.8%
4.9%
2.3%
0.8%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Belshina goals (down), columns = Neman goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
Belshina is 0.37 points worse than Neman in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
Belshina is 0.07 goals worse than Neman in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
Belshina is 0.57 goals worse than Neman in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Belshina
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Neman
For 5.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
10.5
10.3
10.7
1.4
0.8
1.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.8
0.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
10.8
10.3
11.5
1.3
1.0
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
17%
8%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
33%
67%
83%
92%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
9.0
7.0
11.0
1.3
1.5
1.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
7.0
11.0
0.8
0.0
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
6.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
0%
67%
17%
17%
17%
-
-
-
% under line
67%
100%
33%
83%
83%
83%
-
-
-
This opponent (Belshina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.6
FC Minsk
12.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.8
Belshina
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
FC Gomel
9.4
Neman
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.8
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.5
FC Minsk
5.3
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Gomel
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.2%
Under 9.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.6%
Under 3.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.71
0.42
0.75
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.68
0.40
0.70
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.46
0.75
0.42
0.42
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.50
0.78
0.56
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.83
1.17
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.95
0.60
0.90
1.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.58
0.83
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.61
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
42% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Belshina's squad is €2m less valuable than Neman's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
Belshina and Neman have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Belshina's midfield is €1m less valuable than Neman's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
Belshina and Neman have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
Dinamo Brest
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
ML Vitebsk