This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.93
1.93
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.88
0.75
2.12
0.38
1.62
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.43
1.14
1.71
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0 ✓
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Benfica B goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.4%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.7%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.5%
5.6%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica B goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Benfica B is 0.12 points better than Chaves in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Benfica B is 0.38 goals better than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Benfica B is 0.12 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Benfica B is 2.2 percentage points worse than Chaves in terms of average possession (53% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica B
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.2
11.1
5.1
5.5
4.6
26.0
27.1
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
11.2
9.8
12.3
3.9
4.4
3.3
24.1
26.2
22.3
vs Weaker (36)
9.6
9.0
10.4
5.5
5.9
5.2
26.8
27.4
26.0
% over line
61%
45%
78%
76%
92%
60%
72%
85%
58%
% under line
39%
55%
22%
24%
8%
40%
28%
15%
42%
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
8.7
11.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
27.8
27.5
28.0
vs Stronger (29)
10.2
9.2
11.3
4.7
4.4
4.9
27.7
28.3
27.1
vs Similar (21)
10.2
7.8
12.1
4.4
4.2
4.6
27.9
26.3
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
41%
72%
68%
64%
72%
94%
94%
94%
% under line
43%
59%
28%
32%
36%
28%
6%
6%
6%
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alverca
12.0
Feirense
11.4
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
Portimonense
10.7
Chaves
10.6
Benfica B
10.3
Penafiel
10.3
FC Porto B
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Torreense
10.2
Mafra
10.2
Academico Viseu
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
Vizela
9.9
Maritimo
9.8
Leixoes
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Chaves
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Leixoes
5.5
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Vizela
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
FC Porto B
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Feirense
5.0
Torreense
4.9
União de Leiria
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.8
Mafra
4.5
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
30.2
Leixoes
29.4
Chaves
28.8
Maritimo
28.7
Oliveirense
28.1
Vizela
27.5
Penafiel
27.4
Portimonense
27.1
Tondela
27.1
Benfica B
26.1
Torreense
25.6
Feirense
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
União de Leiria
25.0
Academico Viseu
24.3
Mafra
24.2
FC Porto B
24.2
Felgueiras 1932
18.0
Alverca
13.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.7%
Under 9.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.6%
Under 3.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.29
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.74
0.78
0.70
0.30
0.77
1.15
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.47
0.93
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.81
0.38
1.00
0.12
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.79
0.57
0.86
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.78
0.57
0.70
0.70
0.85
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.06
0.38
1.12
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.64
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica B
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luan33%
Gustavo Varela33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
José Melro0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Rafael Luis0%
Hugo Félix0%
André Gomes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Melro33%
Luan33%
Gustavo Varela33%
Hugo Félix33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Rafael Luis0%
André Gomes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lenny Lacroix33%
Gustavo Marques33%
Hugo Félix33%
André Gomes33%
José Melro0%
Luan0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Rafael Luis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
José Melro0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Luan0%
Rafael Luis0%
Hugo Félix0%
André Gomes0%
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Benfica B's squad is €22m more valuable than Chaves's (€31m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's attack is €6m more valuable than Chaves's (€9m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's midfield is €7m more valuable than Chaves's (€10m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Benfica B's defence is €9m more valuable than Chaves's (€13m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Torreense
União de Leiria
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses