Benfica B are tipped to lift the match at home, with a 46% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of Torreense winning. The average goal tally is 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.7% probability. Benfica B have been scoring 1.5 goals per game and conceding 1.25 against similar opposition at home, while Torreense have managed 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded on the road against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.0% (hit), Under 3.5 at 75.5% (hit), Over 1.5 at 72.8% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 72.6% (miss) and Under 11.5 corners at 70.0%. Benfica B’s recent run of LDWWL and a 0-1 loss to Amarante contrasts with Torreense’s LDDLL streak and a 0-3 defeat to Vizela, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
The win extends Benfica B’s recent form, turning a defeat into a 2-0 victory over Torreense. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 46 percent, proved correct, matching the final score and the actual result. The model’s selection of Over 2.5 cards, with an 81 percent probability, hit, as did Under 3.5 cards at 75.5 percent, Over 1.5 cards at 72.8 percent, while Under 5.5 cards at 72.6 percent missed. The predicted 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline 1-1, and the 27 percent chance of that outcome were all settled, with the match delivering the expected 2-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Benfica B win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torreense win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Benfica B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.43
1.14
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.25
1.50
1.25
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
1.50
1.41
1.40
1.10
1.58
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.17
1.00
1.12
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.29
0.88
1.38
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
1.06
1.12
0.88
1.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
2-0 ✓
8.7%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.8%
Benfica B goals ↓
Torreense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica B goals (down), columns = Torreense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Chaves
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Benfica B is 0.03 points better than Torreense in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
União de Leiria
1.44
Torreense
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Academico Viseu
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Benfica B is 0.12 goals better than Torreense in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Leixoes
1.24
Torreense
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Benfica B is 0.12 goals better than Torreense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Benfica B is 3.1 percentage points better than Torreense in terms of average possession (53% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica B
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torreense
For 6.7 · Against 6.5 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 15.9 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.9
11.0
5.0
5.3
4.7
26.7
26.8
26.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
11.0
10.2
11.7
3.7
4.0
3.5
25.1
25.7
24.6
vs Weaker (35)
10.2
9.8
10.6
5.5
5.9
5.2
27.3
27.2
27.5
% over line
63%
50%
76%
76%
88%
65%
74%
86%
62%
% under line
37%
50%
24%
24%
12%
35%
26%
14%
38%
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.3
4.7
5.0
4.3
26.4
29.0
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.9
5.0
4.8
26.3
28.5
24.2
vs Weaker (25)
9.7
8.7
10.7
4.5
5.1
3.8
26.4
29.4
23.2
% over line
48%
45%
50%
70%
76%
64%
84%
95%
73%
% under line
52%
55%
50%
30%
24%
36%
16%
5%
27%
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alverca
12.0
Feirense
11.3
Oliveirense
10.9
Portimonense
10.9
Chaves
10.8
Tondela
10.8
FC Porto B
10.6
Benfica B
10.6
Vizela
10.4
Mafra
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Leixoes
10.3
Penafiel
10.2
Academico Viseu
10.1
Torreense
10.0
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Oliveirense
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.6
Leixoes
5.6
Vizela
5.5
Tondela
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Portimonense
5.3
Penafiel
5.3
FC Porto B
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Feirense
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.9
Torreense
4.9
Mafra
4.6
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Felgueiras 1932
4.0
Alverca
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.6
Penafiel
29.7
Leixoes
29.6
Maritimo
29.5
Chaves
29.5
Oliveirense
29.5
Tondela
28.6
Vizela
28.6
Portimonense
27.5
Benfica B
26.9
Torreense
26.7
Feirense
26.2
União de Leiria
26.0
Felgueiras 1932
26.0
Mafra
25.4
Academico Viseu
25.3
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
FC Porto B
24.9
Alverca
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.8%
Under 9.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.64
0.43
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
0.73
0.86
0.60
0.50
0.83
1.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.79
0.25
0.75
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.31
0.75
0.25
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.79
0.71
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Torreense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torreense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.75
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.88
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torreense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica B
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luan33%
Gustavo Varela33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
José Melro0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Rafael Luis0%
Hugo Félix0%
André Gomes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Melro33%
Luan33%
Gustavo Varela33%
Hugo Félix33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Rafael Luis0%
André Gomes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lenny Lacroix33%
Gustavo Marques33%
Hugo Félix33%
André Gomes33%
José Melro0%
Luan0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Rafael Luis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela33%
Lenny Lacroix0%
José Melro0%
Gustavo Marques0%
Luan0%
Rafael Luis0%
Hugo Félix0%
André Gomes0%
Torreense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ethyan González33%
Javi Vázquez20%
Manuel Lopes20%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon20%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Rúben Pinto0%
Pité0%
Juan Andres Balanta0%
Dany Jean0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Dani Bolt0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Leo Azevedo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pinto25%
Pité25%
Stopira20%
Juan Andres Balanta20%
Mathys Jean-Marie20%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon20%
Javi Vázquez0%
Lucas Paes0%
Manuel Lopes0%
Dany Jean0%
Dani Bolt0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Ethyan González0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mathys Jean-Marie20%
Dani Bolt20%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero20%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon20%
Javi Vázquez0%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Rúben Pinto0%
Pité0%
Juan Andres Balanta0%
Manuel Lopes0%
Dany Jean0%
Ethyan González0%
Leo Azevedo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dany Jean33%
Ethyan González33%
Javi Vázquez0%
Stopira0%
Lucas Paes0%
Rúben Pinto0%
Pité0%
Juan Andres Balanta0%
Manuel Lopes0%
Mathys Jean-Marie0%
Dani Bolt0%
Manuel Pozo Guerrero0%
Leo Azevedo0%
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Benfica B's squad is €13m more valuable than Torreense's (€31m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's attack is €2m more valuable than Torreense's (€9m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's midfield is €7m more valuable than Torreense's (€10m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Benfica B's defence is €3m more valuable than Torreense's (€13m vs €10m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →