Berane are expected to fall to Iskra (Montenegro) in this Montenegro: Second League match, with the away side boasting a 51% chance of winning. The model's selection is an away win, which is the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13%.
Berane's home form is concerning, as they've conceded an average of 1.3 goals per game against stronger opponents at home, while scoring just 1.1 goals. Iskra (Montenegro), on the other hand, has averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded in away games against weaker opponents.
The model suggests taking Over 1.5 goals (75% probability) and Under 3.5 goals (73% probability). Berane's chances of winning are 22%, while the draw is 27% likely. Iskra (Montenegro) has a 51% chance of winning.
Results analysis
The win extends Berane’s run of four straight defeats, while Iskra (Montenegro) comes off a victory to secure a 0-1 away triumph. The model’s favourite, Away win, with a 48 % probability, proved correct. The final score matched the predicted result. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5 %, Under 6.5 at 98.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.6 %, and Under 5.5 at 95.6 %. All picks were settled and each hit, confirming the model’s high-confidence predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Berane win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) win✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Berane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.13
1.53
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (21)
1.19
1.19
1.10
1.30
1.27
1.09
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.22
1.20
2.00
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra (Montenegro)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra (Montenegro)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.20
1.57
0.93
1.31
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.07
1.14
1.14
1.57
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
1.31
2.00
0.71
1.11
1.78
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1 ✓
11.0%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.1%
0-3
4.8%
Berane goals ↓
Iskra (Montenegro) goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
11%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
4.0%
6.1%
4.7%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Berane goals (down), columns = Iskra (Montenegro) goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Berane is 0.39 points worse than Iskra (Montenegro) in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Berane is 0.17 goals worse than Iskra (Montenegro) in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Berane is 0.06 goals worse than Iskra (Montenegro) in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Berane or Draw✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
48%
covers Berane + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Berane or Iskra (Montenegro)✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
48%
covers Berane + Iskra (Montenegro)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iskra (Montenegro)✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Iskra (Montenegro)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Berane over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Berane, so a minus line means Berane give that many goals of a start and Iskra (Montenegro) receive them. At -1, Berane must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Berane win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Berane)Actual: Iskra (Montenegro)
Berane -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.4%
Iskra (Montenegro) +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Berane)Actual: Iskra (Montenegro)
Berane -1
8.9%
Draw -1
14.6%
Iskra (Montenegro) +1
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Berane)Actual: Draw
Berane +1
51.6%
Draw +1
23.0%
Iskra (Montenegro) -1
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Berane)Actual: Berane
Berane +2
74.6%
Draw +2
15.1%
Iskra (Montenegro) -2
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Berane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.20
vs Stronger (21)
0.38
0.43
0.40
0.60
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra (Montenegro)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra (Montenegro)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.29
0.43
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.56
0.86
0.29
0.78
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.3%
Under 0.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.9%
Under 1.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Berane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (21)
0.81
0.76
0.70
0.70
0.91
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra (Montenegro)) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra (Montenegro)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.86
0.71
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.75
1.14
0.43
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.9%
Under 1.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra (Montenegro) over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →