The model picks an away win for Lovćen, a result that aligns with their recent 2-game winning streak and the fact that they beat Berane 3-2 in their last encounter. Home and away win probabilities are both 28%, while the away side enjoys a 44% edge. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Berane, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded; Lovćen, on the road, averages 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Away +2 handicap (88.5%), and Under 4.5 (87.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Berane win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lovćen win
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Berane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.07
1.53
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.30
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.40
1.20
2.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
0.94
1.31
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (17)
1.59
1.18
1.25
1.12
1.89
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.69
0.62
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.4%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
Berane goals ↓
Lovćen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
9.5%
8.0%
4.0%
1.5%
1
7.0%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.7%
7.0%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Berane goals (down), columns = Lovćen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Berane is 0.06 points better than Lovćen in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Berane is 0.31 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Berane is 0.25 goals better than Lovćen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Berane or Draw
55.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Berane + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Berane or Lovćen
71.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Berane + Lovćen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lovćen
72.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Lovćen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Berane over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Berane, so a minus line means Berane give that many goals of a start and Lovćen receive them. At -1, Berane must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Berane win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Berane)
Berane -2
3.6%
Draw -2
8.0%
Lovćen +2
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Berane)
Berane -1
11.5%
Draw -1
16.2%
Lovćen +1
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Berane)
Berane +1
55.9%
Draw +1
21.6%
Lovćen -1
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Berane)
Berane +2
77.5%
Draw +2
13.6%
Lovćen -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Berane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
0.45
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.31
0.62
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.59
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.85
0.12
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Berane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.90
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lovćen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.62
0.69
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (17)
1.06
0.59
0.75
0.62
1.33
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Berane and Lovćen have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Berane and Lovćen have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Berane and Lovćen have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Zeta
Mogren
Grbalj
Kom
Iskra (Montenegro)
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)