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Berane vs Mogren Prediction & Stats

Date: 16/09/2026
Time: 17:00
Berane
Berane
Vs
16%
24%
60%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mogren
Mogren
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model predicts an away win, with Mogren favoured to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.3% chance. Berane, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.3 conceded, while Mogren, on the road against a weaker side, averages 3.0 scored and only 0.5 conceded. Home win probability sits at 16%, draw at 24%, and away win at 60%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away +2 handicap (94.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.4%), Under 5.5 (93.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.1%), and Away over 0.5 goals (85.4%). Berane’s recent five-match losing streak and Mogren’s recent win set the narrative for a likely away triumph.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Berane win
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mogren win
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BeraneBerane

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L22D01L43W00D01L13L01L01L23LH·OTR18/04A·INT26/04H·RUD03/05H·KOM10/05A·LOV16/05H·IGA20/05A·MLA24/05A·JED16/08H·ISK23/08A·LOV29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.301.071.531.131.07
vs Stronger (20)1.001.251.001.301.001.20
vs Similar (10)1.301.401.202.001.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W12L30WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.001.002.003.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)2.331.001.002.003.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
0-2
10.8%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
4.7%
Berane goals ↓
Mogren goals →
01234
06.9%10%11%6.9%3.3%
14.3%11%9.9%6.3%3.0%
22.5%4.7%4.5%2.9%1.4%
30.8%1.4%1.4%0.9%0.4%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Berane goals (down), columns = Mogren goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Berane is 0.14 points better than Mogren in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Berane is 0.09 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Berane is 0.39 goals better than Mogren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Berane or Draw
40.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
24%
60%
covers Berane + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Berane or Mogren
76.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
24%
60%
covers Berane + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mogren
83.6%
Avg Implied -
16%
24%
60%
covers Draw + Mogren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Berane over/under 0.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 3.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Berane, so a minus line means Berane give that many goals of a start and Mogren receive them. At -1, Berane must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Berane win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Berane)
Berane -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.3%
Mogren +2
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Berane)
Berane -1
5.7%
Draw -1
10.7%
Mogren +1
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Berane)
Berane +1
40.2%
Draw +1
23.5%
Mogren -1
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Berane)
Berane +2
63.6%
Draw +2
18.7%
Mogren -2
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BeraneBerane

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D13L00D01L11D00D00D21WH·OTR18/04A·INT26/04H·RUD03/05H·KOM10/05A·LOV16/05H·IGA20/05A·MLA24/05A·JED16/08H·ISK23/08A·LOV29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.500.400.730.530.27
vs Stronger (20)0.400.450.400.600.400.30
vs Similar (10)0.600.600.401.000.800.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D10WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.330.000.002.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.002.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BeraneBerane

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W01L30W00D00D02L01L01L02LH·OTR18/04A·INT26/04H·RUD03/05H·KOM10/05A·LOV16/05H·IGA20/05A·MLA24/05A·JED16/08H·ISK23/08A·LOV29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.670.800.600.80
vs Stronger (20)0.600.800.600.700.600.90
vs Similar (10)0.700.800.801.000.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mogren) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MogrenMogren

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L20WA·KOM16/08H·GRB23/08A·RUD29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.002.001.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Berane over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mogren over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.6%-------
Under 6.597.4%-------
Away +2 handicap94.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals93.4%-------
Under 5.593.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals87.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals85.4%-------
Under 4.584.1%-------
Draw or Away83.6%-------
Away +1 handicap83.6%-------
Over 1.578.6%-------
Home under 1.5 goals76.6%-------
Home or Away76.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BER wins
0
Draws
0
MOG wins

Head-to-head

Berane vs Mogren · H/A from BER
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

BeraneBerane

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ALovćen Vs BER3-2
23/08/26HBER Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-1
16/08/26AJedinstvo Vs BER1-0
24/05/26AMladost Lješkopolje Vs BER3-1
20/05/26HBER Vs Igalo0-1
16/05/26ALovćen Vs BER0-0
10/05/26HBER Vs Kom4-3
03/05/26HBER Vs Rudar (Montenegro)0-1
26/04/26AInternacional Podgorica Vs BER2-2
18/04/26HBER Vs Otrant-Olympic0-2

MogrenMogren

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOG0-3
23/08/26HMOG Vs Grbalj1-2
16/08/26AKom Vs MOG1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Berane
Berane
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.10
HomeLLWLL0.96
AwayDDLLL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.362.622.12
Over 1.5 %68%79%58%
Over 2.5 %38%38%38%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.081.081.08
Conceded1.281.541.04
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet36%21%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Mogren
Mogren
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLW2.00
HomeL0.00
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%0%100%
AVG goals3.333.003.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %33%0%50%
Scored2.331.003.00
Conceded1.002.000.50
BTTS67%100%50%
Clean Sheet33%0%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje37
67%
2.3
51+4
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.3
-
2ZetaZeta37
67%
2.3
41+3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.3
-
3MogrenMogren36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
4LovćenLovćen36
67%
2.0
67-1
4.3
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.3
-
5GrbaljGrbalj35
33%
1.7
32+1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
6KomKom33
33%
1.0
45-1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
7Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)33
33%
1.0
12-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.30.7
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo33
33%
1.0
35-2
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.7
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)33
33%
1.0
15-4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.7
-
10BeraneBerane30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

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