Beroe's recent form has been a concern, coming off a defeat and struggling to score at home, averaging just 0.5 goals per match. They've been conceding at a rate of 1.83 goals per match against stronger opponents. Ludogorets II, on the other hand, has been in good form away, scoring an average of 1.25 goals per match against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.0 goal per match.
The model predicts Beroe to win with a 50% probability, making it the favourite match result. The draw probability stands at 32%, while Ludogorets II's win probability is at 18%. The expected total number of goals is 1.9, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 Beroe, with a 17.7% probability.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 total goals, with a 87.7% probability, and also the Under 2.5 total goals, with a 70.7% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Beroe's run, their second consecutive victory over Ludogorets II. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, the actual result that the Pythia prediction model had correctly identified as the most likely outcome. As the pre-match favourite, with a 50% probability, the model's selection was correct. The model's selection of Home win proved accurate, as the scoreline reflected. The model's other selections also largely came in, with Under 3.5 goals hitting at 87.6% probability, and Under 2.5 goals also hitting at 70.6% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beroe win✓ Hit
50.1%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.01
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.10
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Ludogorets II win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.37
Edge
-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Dafabet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beroe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.33
0.67
1.40
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.83
0.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.96
0.83
1.08
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
2.07
1.40
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.45
1.89
1.56
0.45
1.36
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.00
2.33
1.17
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.6%
@ 1.29-13.0%
Under 1.5
42.4%
@ 3.09+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.19
Unibet
3.15
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
2.92
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.4%
@ 1.97-17.2%
Under 2.5
70.6%
@ 1.72+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.08
SBO
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.76
BetVictor
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.4%
@ 3.33-14.9%
Under 3.5
87.6%
@ 1.25+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
34.9%
@ 1.79-16.5%
No
65.1%
@ 1.89+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
No
Betfair
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.89
BetVictor
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.7%@ 6.42+11.7%
0-0
16.3%@ 8.03+11.5%
1-1
13.3%@ 5.73+6.6%
2-0 ✓
11.9%@ 8.76+7.5%
0-1
8.4%@ 8.95+4.1%
2-1
7.6%@ 7.80+2.6%
3-0
5.0%@ 16.28+2.6%
1-2
3.8%@ 11.02+0.4%
Beroe goals ↓
Ludogorets II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
8.4%
3.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
18%
13%
3.8%
0.8%
0.1%
2
12%
7.6%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
5.0%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beroe goals (down), columns = Ludogorets II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fratria
2.17
Vihren
2.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.83
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.83
Beroe
1.67
Yantra 2019
1.67
Montana
1.67
Nesebar
1.67
Ludogorets II
1.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.33
Marek
1.17
Spartak Pleven
1.17
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.17
Hebar 1918
1.17
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Sportist Svoge
1.00
Dobrudzha
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Beroe is 0.33 points better than Ludogorets II in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nesebar
2.17
Montana
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Hebar 1918
1.83
Vihren
1.83
CSKA Sofia II
1.67
Beroe
1.50
Fratria
1.33
Yantra 2019
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.17
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.83
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.83
Rilski Sportist
0.83
Sportist Svoge
0.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.50
Beroe is 0.67 goals better than Ludogorets II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.67
Sportist Svoge
0.67
Marek
1.00
Beroe
1.00
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.17
Ludogorets II
1.17
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.17
Dobrudzha
1.33
Montana
1.33
Spartak Pleven
1.50
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.50
Nesebar
1.50
Hebar 1918
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.67
Beroe is 0.17 goals better than Ludogorets II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beroe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.50
0.27
0.53
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.38
0.33
0.42
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
1.11
0.89
0.18
0.55
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beroe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beroe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.40
0.87
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.83
0.00
1.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.58
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.75
0.78
0.67
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beroe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.6%
1.25
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+14.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.6%
1.72
Unibet
1.76
BetVictor
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
+17.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Beroe · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alberto Salido67%
Alberto Salido27%
Marco Borgnino20%
Facundo Alarcon13%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Juanca Pineda0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Nene0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Valverde Juan45%
Francisco Varela40%
Facundo Constantini37%
Leandro Godoy33%
Santiago Brunelli30%
Facundo Alarcon27%
Carlos Algarra López25%
Alex Masogo25%
Emir Kuhinja22%
Augusto Dabo22%
Marco Borgnino20%
Gianluca Colla20%
João Sérgio Milheirão20%
Ismael Ferrer18%
Wesley Rocha17%
Tijan Sonha15%
Miroslav Georgiev14%
Juanca Pineda14%
Jaume Valens Cardell12%
Caio Lopes9%
Alberto Salido9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Nene0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Carlos Algarra López25%
Gianluca Colla20%
Viktorio Valkov17%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
João Sérgio Milheirão5%
Juanca Pineda5%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Facundo Alarcon0%
Alberto Salido0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Godoy100%
Alberto Salido36%
Alberto Salido33%
Juanca Pineda9%
Ismael Ferrer9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Facundo Alarcon7%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Beroe and Ludogorets II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Beroe and Ludogorets II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Beroe and Ludogorets II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Beroe and Ludogorets II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
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Fratria
Vihren
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
CSKA Sofia II
Nesebar
Montana
Yantra 2019
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Marek
Hebar 1918
Spartak Pleven
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad