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Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier Result & Analysis

Date: 02/12/2023
Time: 12:30
Final 0-0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
34%
29%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L14L12L22D20W00D11D01L12LA·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10A·TOM22/10H·LUZ29/10A·BYL06/11H·KAS11/11H·VOR23/11A·LUS27/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.371.571.140.941.56
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)1.191.271.501.000.931.50
vs Weaker (3)2.002.334.003.001.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L30W00D41W30W01L11D21W41W22DA·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.931.730.671.331.20
vs Stronger (9)1.221.671.000.671.332.17
vs Similar (21)1.670.621.920.671.330.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0 ✓
9.4%
0-1
9.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Apolonia Fier goals →
01234
09.4%9.1%6.7%2.9%0.9%
18.7%14%8.2%3.5%1.1%
26.1%7.9%5.1%2.2%0.7%
32.5%3.2%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.8%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Apolonia Fier goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.22 points worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.28 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.44 goals worse than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L01L11D10W00D00D00D01LA·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10A·TOM22/10H·LUZ29/10A·BYL06/11H·KAS11/11H·VOR23/11A·LUS27/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.690.460.410.59
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (26)0.540.500.640.360.470.60
vs Weaker (3)0.670.672.001.000.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W00D11D20W00D11D11D00D00DA·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.370.470.200.730.53
vs Stronger (9)0.560.670.330.330.670.83
vs Similar (21)0.620.240.500.170.780.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D12L11D11D10W00D11D01L11DA·KOR23/09H·AF 28/09A·BUR02/10H·FLA07/10A·TOM22/10H·LUZ29/10A·BYL06/11H·KAS11/11H·VOR23/11A·LUS27/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.770.770.530.88
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (26)0.580.770.730.730.470.80
vs Weaker (3)1.331.672.002.001.001.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L10W00D30W10W01L00D10W41W22DA·AF 24/09H·BUR28/09A·FLA02/10H·TOM07/10A·LUZ22/10H·BYL29/10A·KAS06/11H·VOR11/11H·LUS22/11H·KOR26/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.571.270.470.600.67
vs Stronger (9)0.671.000.670.330.671.33
vs Similar (21)1.050.381.420.500.560.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Besa Kavajë's squad is €1m more valuable than Apolonia Fier's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BK wins
2
Draws
0
AF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK1-1
19/02/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK0-0
19/09/22HBK Vs Apolonia Fier2-1

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/11/23ALushnja Vs BK2-1
23/11/23HBK Vs Vora0-1
11/11/23HBK Vs Kastrioti Krujë1-1
06/11/23ABylis Vs BK0-0
29/10/23HBK Vs Luzi 20082-0
22/10/23ATomori Berat Vs BK2-2
07/10/23HBK Vs Flamurtari1-2
02/10/23ABurreli Vs BK4-1
28/09/23HBK Vs AF Elbasani0-1
23/09/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK2-0

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/11/23HAF Vs Korabi Peshkopi2-2
22/11/23HAF Vs Lushnja4-1
11/11/23HAF Vs Vora2-1
06/11/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs AF1-1
29/10/23HAF Vs Bylis0-1
22/10/23ALuzi 2008 Vs AF0-3
07/10/23HAF Vs Tomori Berat4-1
02/10/23AFlamurtari Vs AF0-0
28/09/23HAF Vs Burreli3-0
24/09/23AAF Elbasani Vs AF3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL1.21
HomeLLWDL1.53
AwayLLDDL0.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%42%20%
AVG goals2.462.322.60
Over 1.5 %62%63%60%
Over 2.5 %41%37%45%
Over 3.5 %23%16%30%
Scored1.211.371.05
Conceded1.260.951.55
BTTS44%37%50%
Clean Sheet33%42%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWD1.60
HomeWLWWD2.00
AwayWLDWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%60%25%
AVG goals2.502.602.40
Over 1.5 %68%60%75%
Over 2.5 %48%50%45%
Over 3.5 %25%30%20%
Scored1.451.751.15
Conceded1.050.851.25
BTTS55%50%60%
Clean Sheet32%35%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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