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Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier Result & Analysis

Date: 01/03/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
37%
33%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W02L11D23L11D21W13L21W20WA·KAS08/12H·LUS17/12H·APO22/12A·BUR11/01H·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.671.500.751.500.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.330.671.270.731.400.60
vs Weaker (9)1.890.672.000.801.750.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D20W00D10W42W00D00D11D00DA·LUS07/12H·FLA17/12A·BES22/12H·VAL11/01A·BUR19/01H·KOR25/01A·ERZ01/02H·POG08/02A·POG17/02H·BUR23/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.031.571.001.061.06
vs Stronger (10)1.301.101.750.501.001.50
vs Similar (20)1.301.001.501.201.100.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.7%
Under 1.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.3%
Under 2.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.4%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
10.9%
2-0 ✓
7.8%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.8%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Apolonia Fier goals →
01234
014%11%5.8%1.8%0.4%
113%15%6.3%2.0%0.5%
27.8%7.4%3.5%1.1%0.3%
32.9%2.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
40.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Apolonia Fier goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.79 points better than Apolonia Fier in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.35).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.22 goals better than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Luzi 2008
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Besa Kavajë is 0.40 goals better than Apolonia Fier in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D01L12L00D00D00D20W10WA·KAS08/12H·LUS17/12H·APO22/12A·BUR11/01H·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.170.750.190.710.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.620.240.550.270.700.20
vs Weaker (9)1.000.001.200.000.750.00
Clean sheet %87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D00D00D31W00D00D00D00DA·LUS07/12H·FLA17/12A·BES22/12H·VAL11/01A·BUR19/01H·KOR25/01A·ERZ01/02H·POG08/02A·POG17/02H·BUR23/02
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.431.000.570.190.31
vs Stronger (10)0.500.401.000.000.170.67
vs Similar (20)0.600.451.000.800.200.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L10W11D11D21W13L01L10WA·KAS08/12H·LUS17/12H·APO22/12A·BUR11/01H·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.500.750.560.790.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.710.430.730.450.700.40
vs Weaker (9)0.890.670.800.801.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Apolonia Fier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W00D10W11D00D00D11D00DA·LUS07/12H·FLA17/12A·BES22/12H·VAL11/01A·BUR19/01H·KOR25/01A·ERZ01/02H·POG08/02A·POG17/02H·BUR23/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.570.430.880.75
vs Stronger (10)0.800.700.750.500.830.83
vs Similar (20)0.700.550.500.400.900.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apolonia Fier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Besa Kavajë's squad is €1m more valuable than Apolonia Fier's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Apolonia Fier have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
BK wins
3
Draws
1
AF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Apolonia Fier · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/24HBK Vs Apolonia Fier0-2
28/09/24AApolonia Fier Vs BK1-2
04/05/24AApolonia Fier Vs BK0-1
02/12/23HBK Vs Apolonia Fier0-0
17/09/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK1-1
19/02/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK0-0
19/09/22HBK Vs Apolonia Fier2-1

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/25AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK0-2
16/02/25HBK Vs FK Kukesi2-1
08/02/25AFlamurtari Vs BK3-1
02/02/25HBK Vs FK Kukesi2-1
26/01/25AVora Vs BK1-1
19/01/25HBK Vs Erzeni Shijak2-3
11/01/25ABurreli Vs BK1-1
22/12/24HBK Vs Apolonia Fier0-2
17/12/24HBK Vs Lushnja1-0
08/12/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs BK0-1

Apolonia FierApolonia Fier

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/25HAF Vs Burreli0-0
17/02/25APogradeci Vs AF1-1
08/02/25HAF Vs Pogradeci0-0
01/02/25AErzeni Shijak Vs AF0-0
25/01/25HAF Vs Korabi Peshkopi4-2
19/01/25ABurreli Vs AF0-1
11/01/25HAF Vs Valbona0-0
22/12/24ABesa Kavajë Vs AF0-2
17/12/24HAF Vs Flamurtari1-1
07/12/24ALushnja Vs AF2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.70
HomeWLLWW1.77
AwayWDDLW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%50%46%
AVG goals2.142.152.12
Over 1.5 %66%62%71%
Over 2.5 %36%38%33%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.261.271.25
Conceded0.880.880.88
BTTS32%35%29%
Clean Sheet50%46%54%
Corners---
Cards---
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDD1.26
HomeDDWDD1.60
AwayLWWDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals2.242.561.92
Over 1.5 %62%72%52%
Over 2.5 %38%44%32%
Over 3.5 %20%28%12%
Scored1.221.600.84
Conceded1.020.961.08
BTTS52%60%44%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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