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Besa Kavajë vs Burreli Result & Analysis

Date: 26/03/2025
Time: 11:30
Final 0-0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
38%
31%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Burreli win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L11D21W13L21W20W20W32W30W10WH·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02H·APO01/03A·KAS05/03H·LUS09/03A·POG15/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.601.620.621.710.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.430.671.300.601.550.73
vs Weaker (9)2.220.442.170.672.330.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W01L30W12L00D10W31W10W10WH·APO19/01A·ERZ27/01H·VOR02/02A·FK 08/02H·KOR17/02A·APO23/02H·KAS01/03A·LUS05/03H·POG09/03H·ERZ15/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.700.940.561.570.86
vs Stronger (7)1.140.861.000.751.331.00
vs Similar (23)1.260.650.920.501.640.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0 ✓
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Burreli goals →
01234
012%9.7%5.8%2.0%0.5%
111%15%6.9%2.4%0.6%
27.6%8.0%4.2%1.4%0.4%
33.1%3.2%1.7%0.6%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Burreli goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vora
2.30
Flamurtari
2.27
Besa Kavajë
2.14
Burreli
1.71
Pogradeci
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.33
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
FK Kukesi
0.91
Valbona
0.48
Erzeni Shijak
0.33
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.44 points better than Burreli in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flamurtari
1.88
Vora
1.67
Besa Kavajë
1.57
Apolonia Fier
1.35
Lushnja
1.18
Korabi Peshkopi
1.06
Burreli
1.06
Kastrioti Krujë
1.06
Pogradeci
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.88
Valbona
0.88
Erzeni Shijak
0.48
Luzi 2008
0.00
Oriku
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.51 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Besa Kavajë
0.57
Flamurtari
0.64
Burreli
0.68
Vora
0.73
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Luzi 2008
1.00
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
1.00
Lushnja
1.24
Kastrioti Krujë
1.44
Korabi Peshkopi
1.45
FK Kukesi
1.65
Valbona
1.79
Erzeni Shijak
1.91
Besa Kavajë is 0.11 goals better than Burreli in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 0.68).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D00D20W10W00D12L20W10WH·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02H·APO01/03A·KAS05/03H·LUS09/03A·POG15/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.200.810.120.790.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.620.290.500.200.730.36
vs Weaker (9)1.220.001.330.001.000.00
Clean sheet %87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D00D10W01L00D00D01L10W10WH·APO19/01A·ERZ27/01H·VOR02/02A·FK 08/02H·KOR17/02A·APO23/02H·KAS01/03A·LUS05/03H·POG09/03H·ERZ15/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.400.440.190.360.64
vs Stronger (7)0.430.570.500.250.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.350.420.170.360.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D21W13L01L10W20W20W10W00DH·ERZ19/01A·VOR26/01H·FK 02/02A·FLA08/02H·FK 16/02A·KOR23/02H·APO01/03A·KAS05/03H·LUS09/03A·POG15/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.400.810.500.930.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.810.380.800.400.820.36
vs Weaker (9)1.000.440.830.671.330.00
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Burreli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BurreliBurreli

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W01L20W11D00D10W30W00D00DH·APO19/01A·ERZ27/01H·VOR02/02A·FK 08/02H·KOR17/02A·APO23/02H·KAS01/03A·LUS05/03H·POG09/03H·ERZ15/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.300.500.381.210.21
vs Stronger (7)0.710.290.500.501.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.870.300.500.331.270.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burreli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Besa Kavajë's squad is €1m more valuable than Burreli's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Burreli have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Burreli have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Burreli have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
BK wins
2
Draws
2
BUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Burreli · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
11/01/25ABurreli Vs BK1-1
05/10/24HBK Vs Burreli3-0
06/04/24ABurreli Vs BK0-1
21/01/24HBK Vs Burreli0-0
02/10/23ABurreli Vs BK4-1
18/05/23HBK Vs Burreli3-0
28/01/23ABurreli Vs BK1-0

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25APogradeci Vs BK0-1
09/03/25HBK Vs Lushnja3-0
05/03/25AKastrioti Krujë Vs BK2-3
01/03/25HBK Vs Apolonia Fier2-0
23/02/25AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK0-2
16/02/25HBK Vs FK Kukesi2-1
08/02/25AFlamurtari Vs BK3-1
02/02/25HBK Vs FK Kukesi2-1
26/01/25AVora Vs BK1-1
19/01/25HBK Vs Erzeni Shijak2-3

BurreliBurreli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/25HBUR Vs Erzeni Shijak1-0
09/03/25HBUR Vs Pogradeci1-0
05/03/25ALushnja Vs BUR1-3
01/03/25HBUR Vs Kastrioti Krujë1-0
23/02/25AApolonia Fier Vs BUR0-0
17/02/25HBUR Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-2
08/02/25AFK Kukesi Vs BUR0-3
02/02/25HBUR Vs Vora0-1
27/01/25AErzeni Shijak Vs BUR0-2
19/01/25HBUR Vs Apolonia Fier0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.84
HomeLWWWW1.92
AwayDLWWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals2.262.242.28
Over 1.5 %68%64%72%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.381.401.36
Conceded0.880.840.92
BTTS32%32%32%
Clean Sheet52%52%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Burreli
Burreli
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.60
HomeLLWWW1.85
AwayWWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals1.901.502.33
Over 1.5 %54%38%71%
Over 2.5 %34%23%46%
Over 3.5 %12%4%21%
Scored1.040.961.12
Conceded0.860.541.21
BTTS32%31%33%
Clean Sheet48%54%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VoraVora3376
73%
2.3
5524+31
2.4
61%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.70.7
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari3375
70%
2.3
6221+41
2.5
82%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.6
-
3Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3575
63%
2.1
5520+35
2.1
69%
37%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.60.6
-
4BurreliBurreli3458
47%
1.7
3623+13
1.7
53%
32%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.7
-
5PogradeciPogradeci3555
46%
1.6
3535+0
2.0
54%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3446
32%
1.4
4633+13
2.3
71%
41%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
7LushnjaLushnja3344
39%
1.3
3941-2
2.4
58%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
8Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3441
35%
1.2
3649-13
2.5
65%
47%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.11.4
-
9Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3341
36%
1.2
3548-13
2.5
67%
52%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3431
26%
0.9
3056-26
2.5
76%
56%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11ValbonaValbona3316
9%
0.5
2959-30
2.7
76%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
12Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3311
6%
0.3
1663-47
2.4
67%
39%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.9
-
13Luzi 2008Luzi 200810
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
14OrikuOriku10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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