The model favours an away win, with Flamurtari projected to lift the trophy from the road. The overall shape of the contest leans toward a modest tally, with an expected total of 2.4 goals and the most likely total being two. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Besa Kavajë, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. Flamurtari, on the road, has a stronger attack, netting 2.17 goals on average, while conceding 0.83. The probability spread is 24% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 47% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77% probability, and Over 1.5 with a 71.3% probability. The model’s selections are the only ones with chances of winning, and the match is expected to see Flamurtari edge out Besa Kavajë in a tight, low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Besa Kavajë coming off a draw while Flamurtari returns after a defeat, yet the model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Flamurtari edged Besa Kavajë 1-2. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 47%, and the model’s call was indeed right. The suggested picks also delivered: Under 3.5, with a 77% probability, hit; Over 1.5, at 71.3%, hit. The most likely total of two goals materialised, with the 1-1 scoreline being the top forecasted outcome. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, confirming its accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Besa Kavajë win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari win✓ Hit
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Besa Kavajë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.57
1.00
1.06
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.27
1.55
0.91
1.07
1.53
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.33
0.67
1.47
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.64
0.73
1.00
0.60
2.17
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
0.58
1.50
0.70
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.4%
0-0
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
1-2 ✓
9.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
11%
9.2%
4.5%
1.6%
1
7.3%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
4.2%
6.2%
4.5%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.4%
2.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.51 points worse than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.23 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.58 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.69
0.46
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.60
0.40
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.17
0.60
0.20
0.53
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.09
0.40
0.00
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (19)
0.42
0.21
0.70
0.30
0.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.77
0.62
0.47
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.44
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.64
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.37
0.80
0.40
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →