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Besa Kavajë vs Flamurtari Result & Analysis

Date: 08/05/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
26%
27%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L05L02L41W41W10W32W02L00D10WA·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04A·APO04/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.330.931.140.881.50
vs Stronger (3)0.002.670.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.041.121.080.831.001.38
vs Weaker (2)0.502.00--0.502.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W00D11D00D31W32W22D24L10WH·BUR03/03A·KAS09/03H·LUS16/03A·KOR27/03H·APO31/03H·TOM06/04A·VOR12/04H·AF 21/04A·BYL29/04H·LUZ04/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.871.440.561.571.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.501.501.500.831.502.17
vs Weaker (18)1.500.441.400.401.620.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
6.7%
1-0 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
01234
07.3%8.8%8.2%4.5%1.8%
15.9%13%9.5%5.2%2.1%
24.1%6.7%5.5%3.0%1.2%
31.6%2.6%2.1%1.2%0.5%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.51 points worse than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.23 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.58 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L02L20W20W00D11D00D00D10WA·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04A·APO04/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.470.290.500.440.44
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.440.360.330.250.540.46
vs Weaker (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D20W10W11D21W10WH·BUR03/03A·KAS09/03H·LUS16/03A·KOR27/03H·APO31/03H·TOM06/04A·VOR12/04H·AF 21/04A·BYL29/04H·LUZ04/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.230.750.060.640.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.830.420.830.170.830.67
vs Weaker (18)0.610.110.700.000.500.25
Clean sheet %80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L00D21W21W10W21W02L00D00DA·VOR03/03H·AF 09/03A·BYL16/03H·LUZ27/03A·TOM31/03A·BUR06/04H·KAS14/04A·LUS21/04H·KOR28/04A·APO04/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.640.640.441.06
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (25)0.600.760.750.580.460.92
vs Weaker (2)0.501.50--0.501.50
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W00D11D00D11D22D11D03L00DH·BUR03/03A·KAS09/03H·LUS16/03A·KOR27/03H·APO31/03H·TOM06/04A·VOR12/04H·AF 21/04A·BYL29/04H·LUZ04/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.690.500.930.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.671.080.670.670.671.50
vs Weaker (18)0.890.330.700.401.120.25
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
BK wins
1
Draws
3
FLA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Flamurtari · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
29/01/24AFlamurtari Vs BK0-0
07/10/23HBK Vs Flamurtari1-2
27/02/23HBK Vs Flamurtari1-4
01/10/22AFlamurtari Vs BK2-0

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/24AApolonia Fier Vs BK0-1
28/04/24HBK Vs Korabi Peshkopi0-0
21/04/24ALushnja Vs BK2-0
14/04/24HBK Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-2
06/04/24ABurreli Vs BK0-1
31/03/24ATomori Berat Vs BK1-4
27/03/24HBK Vs Luzi 20084-1
16/03/24ABylis Vs BK2-0
09/03/24HBK Vs AF Elbasani0-5
03/03/24AVora Vs BK3-0

FlamurtariFlamurtari

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/05/24HFLA Vs Luzi 20081-0
29/04/24ABylis Vs FLA4-2
21/04/24HFLA Vs AF Elbasani2-2
12/04/24AVora Vs FLA2-3
06/04/24HFLA Vs Tomori Berat3-1
31/03/24HFLA Vs Apolonia Fier0-0
27/03/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs FLA1-1
16/03/24HFLA Vs Lushnja0-0
09/03/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs FLA0-2
03/03/24HFLA Vs Burreli0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.20
HomeLLWWD1.39
AwayLWWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%39%26%
AVG goals2.422.522.33
Over 1.5 %62%65%59%
Over 2.5 %38%39%37%
Over 3.5 %26%26%26%
Scored1.121.350.93
Conceded1.301.171.41
BTTS34%30%37%
Clean Sheet36%39%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.68
HomeDDWDW1.81
AwayWWDWL1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.202.002.42
Over 1.5 %60%50%71%
Over 2.5 %38%42%33%
Over 3.5 %22%19%25%
Scored1.361.311.42
Conceded0.840.691.00
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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