The model favours an away win, with a 52% chance for Flamurtari, a 29% chance for a draw and a 19% chance for Besa Kavajë to triumph. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 14.1% probability. Besa Kavajë, playing at home, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against similarly-matched opposition, while Flamurtari, on the road, averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Away +2 handicap (93.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7%) and Under 4.5 (92.0%). Both sides have recently finished with defeats, Besa Kavajë losing 0-1 to Pogradeci and Flamurtari falling 0-2 to Vllaznia Shkodër. This context suggests a cautious, defensive match where Flamurtari’s slight edge may prove decisive.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Besa Kavajë win
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari win
52.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Besa Kavajë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.46
1.00
1.18
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.32
1.50
1.10
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.2%
No
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.2%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.6%
0-2
11.3%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.0%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.8%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
5.6%
2.1%
1
7.0%
13%
8.9%
4.4%
1.6%
2
3.2%
4.8%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
3
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.04 points worse than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Oriku
1.10
Flamurtari
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Besa Kavajë is 0.14 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Besa Kavajë is 0.07 goals worse than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Besa Kavajë or Draw
47.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
29%
52%
covers Besa Kavajë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë or Flamurtari
71.1%
Avg Implied -
19%
29%
52%
covers Besa Kavajë + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flamurtari
81.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
29%
52%
covers Draw + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Besa Kavajë, so a minus line means Besa Kavajë give that many goals of a start and Flamurtari receive them. At -1, Besa Kavajë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Besa Kavajë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.7%
Flamurtari +2
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë -1
6.0%
Draw -1
12.8%
Flamurtari +1
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë +1
47.7%
Draw +1
25.0%
Flamurtari -1
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë +2
72.7%
Draw +2
16.4%
Flamurtari -2
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.77
0.23
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.32
0.70
0.20
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.8%
Under 0.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.7%
Under 1.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
Under 2.5
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
0.77
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.90
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.5%
Under 1.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Iliria Fushë-Krujë