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Besa Kavajë vs Lushnja Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 4-3
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
66%
22%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Lushnja
Lushnja
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lushnja win✗ Miss
12.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L51W22D12L30W01L01L10W30W24LA·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04H·TËR08/04A·DIN15/04H·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.261.111.380.771.141.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.281.121.420.831.151.38
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %41% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L32W11D21W02L21W24L00D10W03LA·FLA04/03H·KOR11/03A·TUR18/03H·BES01/04A·LUZ07/04H·DIN23/04A·ORI07/05H·SKE18/05H·VAL23/05H·APO03/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.671.331.000.672.50
vs Stronger (13)0.691.691.000.710.332.83
vs Similar (14)1.361.641.621.251.002.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.5%
1-0
11.4%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.3%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Lushnja goals →
01234
07.0%3.7%1.8%0.5%0.1%
111%10%3.7%0.9%0.2%
213%9.7%3.7%1.0%0.2%
38.5%6.5%2.5%0.6%0.1%
44.3%3.3%1.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Lushnja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë and Lushnja are level in average points per game (both 1.21).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.09 goals worse than Lushnja in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.18).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.15 goals better than Lushnja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L40W10W00D01L00D10W10W11DH·FLA27/02A·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04A·DIN15/04H·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.500.580.330.640.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.620.540.550.360.690.69
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %62% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D00D00D01L10W01L00D10W01LA·FLA04/03H·KOR11/03A·TUR18/03H·BES01/04A·LUZ07/04H·DIN23/04A·ORI07/05H·SKE18/05H·VAL23/05H·APO03/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.780.470.530.171.08
vs Stronger (13)0.080.850.140.430.001.33
vs Similar (14)0.570.710.750.620.330.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D11D12L12L00D01L00D20W13LH·FLA27/02A·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04A·DIN15/04H·ORI23/04A·SKE07/05H·BUR18/05A·VOR02/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.650.670.500.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.580.620.730.550.460.69
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %58% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lushnja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LushnjaLushnja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W11D21W01L11D23L00D00D02LA·FLA04/03H·KOR11/03A·TUR18/03H·BES01/04A·LUZ07/04H·DIN23/04A·ORI07/05H·SKE18/05H·VAL23/05H·APO03/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.890.870.470.501.42
vs Stronger (13)0.620.850.860.290.331.50
vs Similar (14)0.790.930.880.620.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lushnja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
Besa Kavajë's squad is €2m more valuable than Lushnja's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Lushnja have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Lushnja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Lushnja have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BK wins
0
Draws
1
LUS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Lushnja · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23ALushnja Vs BK2-1
29/10/22HBK Vs Lushnja1-0

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23AVora Vs BK4-2
18/05/23HBK Vs Burreli3-0
07/05/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs BK0-1
23/04/23HBK Vs Oriku0-1
15/04/23ADinamo Tirana Vs BK1-0
08/04/23HBK Vs Tërbuni Pukë3-0
01/04/23ALushnja Vs BK2-1
18/03/23ALuzi 2008 Vs BK2-2
11/03/23HBK Vs Turbina Cërrik5-1
04/03/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK1-0

LushnjaLushnja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23HLUS Vs Apolonia Fier0-3
23/05/23HLUS Vs Valbona1-0
18/05/23HLUS Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-0
07/05/23AOriku Vs LUS4-2
23/04/23HLUS Vs Dinamo Tirana2-1
07/04/23ALuzi 2008 Vs LUS2-0
01/04/23HLUS Vs Besa Kavajë2-1
18/03/23ATurbina Cërrik Vs LUS1-1
11/03/23HLUS Vs Korabi Peshkopi3-2
04/03/23AFlamurtari Vs LUS3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.37
HomeLWWLW1.69
AwayDLLWL1.07
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%46%29%
AVG goals2.372.152.57
Over 1.5 %56%62%50%
Over 2.5 %41%38%43%
Over 3.5 %22%15%29%
Scored1.261.381.14
Conceded1.110.771.43
BTTS37%31%43%
Clean Sheet41%54%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Lushnja
Lushnja
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.19
HomeWWDWL1.93
AwayDLDLL0.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%53%0%
AVG goals2.702.333.17
Over 1.5 %78%67%92%
Over 2.5 %52%47%58%
Over 3.5 %26%20%33%
Scored1.041.330.67
Conceded1.671.002.50
BTTS52%53%50%
Clean Sheet19%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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