Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active encounter, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. Besa Kavajë’s home form shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Pogradeci, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.17 conceded. The probabilities of outcomes are 38% for a Besa win, 29% for a draw, and 33% for a Pogradeci victory. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Under 4.5 (88.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.1%) and Home +2 handicap (85.3%). With Besa coming off a draw and Pogradeci a defeat, the match remains open, but the model’s pick points to a narrow home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Besa Kavajë win
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Besa Kavajë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.23
1.46
1.00
1.18
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.32
1.50
1.10
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.00
1.33
0.67
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
8.1%
5.8%
2.4%
0.7%
1
8.9%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.4%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.0%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.88 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Besa Kavajë is 0.67 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Besa Kavajë is 0.36 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Besa Kavajë or Draw
66.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Besa Kavajë + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë or Pogradeci
71.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Besa Kavajë + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogradeci
62.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Besa Kavajë, so a minus line means Besa Kavajë give that many goals of a start and Pogradeci receive them. At -1, Besa Kavajë must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Besa Kavajë win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.4%
Pogradeci +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë -1
17.8%
Draw -1
20.0%
Pogradeci +1
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë +1
66.8%
Draw +1
18.4%
Pogradeci -1
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Besa Kavajë)
Besa Kavajë +2
85.3%
Draw +2
9.8%
Pogradeci -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.77
0.23
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.32
0.70
0.20
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Besa Kavajë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
0.77
0.53
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.90
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Besa Kavajë and Pogradeci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Iliria Fushë-Krujë