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Besa Kavajë vs Tërbuni Pukë Result & Analysis

Date: 08/04/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Vs
53%
30%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Besa Kavajë win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L33D20W00D14L01L51W22D12LH·SKE20/12A·BUR28/01A·TOM05/02H·BES12/02A·APO19/02H·FLA27/02A·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.141.200.901.181.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.211.161.221.001.201.30
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L12L12L00D01L10W01L11DH·DIN21/12A·ORI28/01A·SKE06/02H·BUR11/02A·TOM18/02H·BES25/02A·APO04/03H·FLA11/03A·KOR18/03H·TUR01/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.811.141.000.820.601.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.801.201.000.820.561.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %24% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.6%
Under 2.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.6%
No
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.3%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.8%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.2%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
1-2
4.4%
Besa Kavajë goals ↓
Tërbuni Pukë goals →
01234
013%7.2%3.1%0.7%0.1%
115%13%4.4%1.1%0.2%
212%8.6%3.1%0.8%0.1%
35.6%4.1%1.5%0.4%0.1%
42.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Besa Kavajë goals (down), columns = Tërbuni Pukë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Skenderbeu Korce
1.88
Dinamo Tirana
1.76
Flamurtari
1.68
Korabi Peshkopi
1.61
Tomori Berat
1.59
Apolonia Fier
1.44
Besa Kavajë
1.42
Luzi 2008
1.40
Burreli
1.26
Lushnja
1.23
Tërbuni Pukë
1.14
Oriku
1.08
Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Pogradeci
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.29 points better than Tërbuni Pukë in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tirana
1.80
Flamurtari
1.50
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Korabi Peshkopi
1.25
Besa Kavajë
1.23
Apolonia Fier
1.19
Luzi 2008
1.12
Lushnja
1.08
Tomori Berat
1.07
Pogradeci
1.00
Oriku
0.96
Burreli
0.89
Turbina Cërrik
0.85
Tërbuni Pukë
0.77
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.65
Valbona
0.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.46 goals better than Tërbuni Pukë in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 0.77).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Skenderbeu Korce
0.50
Flamurtari
0.68
Korabi Peshkopi
0.89
Dinamo Tirana
0.92
Valbona
1.00
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tomori Berat
1.04
Luzi 2008
1.04
Burreli
1.11
Apolonia Fier
1.15
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23
Oriku
1.32
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.58
Lushnja
1.62
Turbina Cërrik
1.77
Pogradeci
2.00
Besa Kavajë is 0.23 goals better than Tërbuni Pukë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L12L10W00D02L01L40W10W00DH·SKE20/12A·BUR28/01A·TOM05/02H·BES12/02A·APO19/02H·FLA27/02A·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.520.600.400.640.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.630.580.560.440.700.70
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %62% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L01L11D00D00D00D00D10WH·DIN21/12A·ORI28/01A·SKE06/02H·BUR11/02A·TOM18/02H·BES25/02A·APO04/03H·FLA11/03A·KOR18/03H·TUR01/04
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.570.450.360.400.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.400.600.450.360.330.89
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %52% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D21W10W00D12L00D11D12L12LH·SKE20/12A·BUR28/01A·TOM05/02H·BES12/02A·APO19/02H·FLA27/02A·KOR04/03H·TUR11/03A·LUZ18/03A·LUS01/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.620.600.500.550.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.580.580.670.560.500.60
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tërbuni Pukë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W00D01L11D01L00D01L10W01L01LH·DIN21/12A·ORI28/01A·SKE06/02H·BUR11/02A·TOM18/02H·BES25/02A·APO04/03H·FLA11/03A·KOR18/03H·TUR01/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.570.550.450.200.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.400.600.550.450.220.78
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %48% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tërbuni Pukë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (27)
€7m
SK (27)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SK (9)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
SK (6)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BK wins
0
Draws
0
TP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Besa Kavajë vs Tërbuni Pukë · H/A from BK
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/22ATërbuni Pukë Vs BK0-1

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23ALushnja Vs BK2-1
18/03/23ALuzi 2008 Vs BK2-2
11/03/23HBK Vs Turbina Cërrik5-1
04/03/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs BK1-0
27/02/23HBK Vs Flamurtari1-4
19/02/23AApolonia Fier Vs BK0-0
12/02/23HBK Vs Besëlidhja Lezhë2-0
05/02/23ATomori Berat Vs BK3-3
28/01/23ABurreli Vs BK1-0
20/12/22HBK Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-0

Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HTP Vs Turbina Cërrik1-1
18/03/23AKorabi Peshkopi Vs TP1-0
11/03/23HTP Vs Flamurtari1-0
04/03/23AApolonia Fier Vs TP1-0
25/02/23HTP Vs Besëlidhja Lezhë0-0
18/02/23ATomori Berat Vs TP2-1
11/02/23HTP Vs Burreli1-2
06/02/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs TP2-0
28/01/23AOriku Vs TP0-0
21/12/22HTP Vs Dinamo Tirana1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.33
HomeLDWLW1.60
AwayDDLDL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%40%27%
AVG goals2.332.102.55
Over 1.5 %57%60%55%
Over 2.5 %38%30%45%
Over 3.5 %24%20%27%
Scored1.191.201.18
Conceded1.140.901.36
BTTS43%40%45%
Clean Sheet38%50%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.19
HomeWLDWD1.55
AwayDLLLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%36%20%
AVG goals1.951.822.10
Over 1.5 %62%64%60%
Over 2.5 %33%27%40%
Over 3.5 %5%0%10%
Scored0.811.000.60
Conceded1.140.821.50
BTTS48%64%30%
Clean Sheet24%27%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce2649
50%
1.9
3713+24
1.9
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.5
-
2FlamurtariFlamurtari2847
46%
1.7
4219+23
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.7
-
3Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi2845
43%
1.6
3525+10
2.1
64%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.20.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana2544
52%
1.8
4523+22
2.7
68%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.80.9
-
5Tomori BeratTomori Berat2743
48%
1.6
2928+1
2.1
63%
41%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
6Apolonia FierApolonia Fier2739
37%
1.4
3231+1
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë2637
38%
1.4
3226+6
2.2
54%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Luzi 2008Luzi 20082535
36%
1.4
2826+2
2.2
68%
36%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
9BurreliBurreli2734
30%
1.3
2430-6
2.0
59%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
10LushnjaLushnja2632
31%
1.2
2842-14
2.7
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.6
-
11OrikuOriku2527
32%
1.1
2433-9
2.3
52%
40%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
12Tërbuni PukëTërbuni Pukë2225
27%
1.1
1727-10
2.0
64%
36%
5%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
13Turbina CërrikTurbina Cërrik2624
23%
0.9
2246-24
2.6
69%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë2617
12%
0.7
1741-24
2.2
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.6
-
15PogradeciPogradeci10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
16ValbonaValbona10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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