Beşiktaş are the clear favourite to win the Turkey Cup clash at home, a rating driven by their strong home form and the fact that Rizespor are playing away against a stronger side. The model assigns a 68% chance to a home victory, 19% to a draw and 13% to an away win. The predicted result is a home win, with 3.4 goals expected on average. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 9.7% probability. Beşiktaş average 1.93 goals scored and concede only 1.0 at home against weaker opponents, while Rizespor average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded away against stronger opposition. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.7%, Home +2 handicap at 95.4%, Under 6.5 at 94.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.1% and Home or Draw at 87.1%. The match is expected to finish with Beşiktaş winning.
Results analysis
The recent form shows Beşiktaş on a four-game winning streak after a narrow defeat, while Rizespor also ended a loss. The model’s pre-match favourite, a home win with a 68% probability, proved correct as Beşiktaş triumphed 4-1. The prediction of a 3-goal total was missed, yet the model’s selections largely hit: Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 7.5 (97.7%), Home +2 handicap (95.4%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.1%) and Home or Draw (87.1%) all came through. The match delivered a decisive victory for the home side, confirming the model’s confidence in the favoured outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beşiktaş win✓ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rizespor win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beşiktaş
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.93
1.13
1.73
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.81
1.04
1.93
1.00
1.67
1.08
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.43
1.81
1.44
1.57
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.29
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.14
1.91
1.00
1.73
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
2.00
5.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Beşiktaş) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
7.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-2
4.7%
4-0
4.7%
Beşiktaş goals ↓
Rizespor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
2.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.2%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.7%
9.6%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.8%
7.7%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
4
4.7%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beşiktaş goals (down), columns = Rizespor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
İstanbulspor
2.50
Bursaspor
2.50
Göztepe
2.50
Etimesgut SK
2.40
Konyaspor
2.38
Bayburt İÖİ
2.33
Galatasaray
2.33
Muş Sport Klübü
2.33
Fenerbahçe
2.25
Beşiktaş
2.25
Kocaelispor
2.25
Çorluspor 1947
2.25
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.25
Trabzonspor
2.17
Hatayspor
2.00
Fatih Karagümrük
2.00
Bodrum FK
2.00
Yeni Orduspor
2.00
Alanyaspor
2.00
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
2.00
Tire 2021 FK
2.00
Karaman FK
2.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
2.00
Kilis Belediyespor
2.00
Osmaniyespor
2.00
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
2.00
Düzcespor
2.00
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
2.00
Kırklarelispor
1.86
Ankaragücü
1.83
İskenderunspor
1.83
Gaziantep FK
1.80
Rizespor
1.80
Eyüpspor
1.75
Başakşehir
1.67
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.50
Keçiörengücü
1.50
Serik Spor
1.50
Ümraniyespor
1.50
Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Adana Demirspor
1.50
Pazarspor
1.50
İnegölspor
1.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
1.50
Sebat Gençlikspor
1.50
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.50
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.50
Amed
1.50
Çorum FK
1.50
Mardin 1969
1.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
1.50
Nilüfer Belediye
1.50
Silivrispor
1.50
Amasyaspor 1968
1.50
Uşak Spor
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Güzide Gebzespor
1.50
Kütahyaspor
1.50
1461 Trabzon FK
1.50
Ağrı 1970
1.50
Ayvalikgucu
1.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.50
Menemen FK
1.50
Adana 01 FK
1.50
Batman Petrolspor
1.50
Zonguldak Kömürspor
1.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
1.50
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Elazığspor
1.50
Anadolu Üniversitesi
1.50
Somaspor
1.50
Bucaspor 1928
1.50
24 Erzincanspor
1.50
Kastamonuspor
1.50
Antalyaspor
1.40
Sarıyer
1.33
Fethiyespor
1.33
Ankara Demirspor
1.33
Erzurumspor FK
1.20
Eskisehirspor
1.01
Kestel Çilek
1.01
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.01
Kahta 02 Spor
1.01
1926 Bulancak
1.01
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.01
Galata
1.01
İnkılapspor
1.01
Şiran
1.01
Kapadokyaspor
1.01
Bilecik Sogut
1.01
Denizli İYG
1.01
Ezinespor
1.01
Muğlaspor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Sivasspor
0.75
Boluspor
0.75
Kasımpaşa
0.75
Vanspor FK
0.50
Samsunspor
0.50
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
0.50
Kepezspor
0.50
Karsiyaka
0.50
Adanaspor
0.00
Kayserispor
0.00
Sakaryaspor
0.00
Pendikspor
0.00
Bandırmaspor
0.00
Manisa F.K.
0.00
Beykoz Anadolu
0.00
Giresunspor
0.00
Altay
0.00
Silifke Belediyespor
0.00
Balıkesirspor
0.00
Çankaya FK
0.00
Erbaaspor
0.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.00
Orduspor 1967
0.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
0.00
Afjet Afyonspor
0.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.00
Iğdır FK
0.00
Altınordu
0.00
Şanlıurfaspor
0.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
0.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
0.00
Edirnespor
0.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.00
Kurtalanspor
0.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
0.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
0.00
Ankaraspor
0.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
0.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.00
Dersimspor
0.00
Bornova 1877
0.00
12 Bingölspor
0.00
Aliağa FAŞ
0.00
Kars 36
0.00
Söke 1970
0.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
0.00
Türk Metal 1963
0.00
1074 Çankırıspor
0.00
Sinopspor
0.00
Nazilli Spor
0.00
Artvin Hopaspor
0.00
Diyarbekirspor
0.00
Bartınspor
0.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
0.00
Çayelispor
0.00
Hakkari Zapspor
0.00
Beşiktaş is 0.45 points better than Rizespor in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
3.67
24 Erzincanspor
3.50
Fenerbahçe
3.25
Bodrum FK
3.20
Hatayspor
3.00
Sebat Gençlikspor
3.00
Mardin 1969
3.00
Altınordu
3.00
Nilüfer Belediye
3.00
Silivrispor
3.00
Konyaspor
2.75
Çorluspor 1947
2.75
Galatasaray
2.67
Rizespor
2.60
İstanbulspor
2.50
Keçiörengücü
2.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
2.50
Trabzonspor
2.50
Kocaelispor
2.50
Menemen FK
2.50
Somaspor
2.50
Alanyaspor
2.40
Göztepe
2.33
Osmaniyespor
2.33
Çorum FK
2.25
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.25
Kırklarelispor
2.14
Kayserispor
2.00
Bandırmaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Ümraniyespor
2.00
Başakşehir
2.00
Adana Demirspor
2.00
Muğlaspor
2.00
Antalyaspor
2.00
Erbaaspor
2.00
Iğdır FK
2.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
2.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
2.00
Amasyaspor 1968
2.00
Uşak Spor
2.00
Muş Sport Klübü
2.00
Ağrı 1970
2.00
Ayvalikgucu
2.00
Aliağa FAŞ
2.00
Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.00
Düzcespor
2.00
Anadolu Üniversitesi
2.00
Kastamonuspor
2.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
2.00
Ankaragücü
1.83
Bursaspor
1.75
Yeni Orduspor
1.67
Tire 2021 FK
1.67
Kilis Belediyespor
1.67
İskenderunspor
1.67
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
1.67
Fethiyespor
1.67
Ankara Demirspor
1.67
Gaziantep FK
1.60
Etimesgut SK
1.60
Boluspor
1.50
Eyüpspor
1.50
Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Beşiktaş
1.50
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50
Pazarspor
1.50
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
1.50
Amed
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Güzide Gebzespor
1.50
1461 Trabzon FK
1.50
Alanya 1221 FK
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
1.50
Bayburt İÖİ
1.33
Eskisehirspor
1.29
Kestel Çilek
1.29
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.29
Kahta 02 Spor
1.29
1926 Bulancak
1.29
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.29
Galata
1.29
İnkılapspor
1.29
Şiran
1.29
Kapadokyaspor
1.29
Bilecik Sogut
1.29
Denizli İYG
1.29
Ezinespor
1.29
Sarıyer
1.00
Adanaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
1.00
Erzurumspor FK
1.00
Silifke Belediyespor
1.00
Orduspor 1967
1.00
İnegölspor
1.00
Talasgücü Belediyespor
1.00
Samsunspor
1.00
Karaman FK
1.00
Kurtalanspor
1.00
Ankaraspor
1.00
Adana 01 FK
1.00
Kars 36
1.00
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Elazığspor
1.00
Söke 1970
1.00
Bucaspor 1928
1.00
Türk Metal 1963
1.00
1074 Çankırıspor
1.00
Nazilli Spor
1.00
Artvin Hopaspor
1.00
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.50
Serik Spor
0.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
0.50
Kütahyaspor
0.50
Karsiyaka
0.50
Batman Petrolspor
0.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
0.50
Kasımpaşa
0.25
Sakaryaspor
0.00
Beykoz Anadolu
0.00
Giresunspor
0.00
Altay
0.00
Balıkesirspor
0.00
Çankaya FK
0.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
0.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
0.00
Afjet Afyonspor
0.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.00
Şanlıurfaspor
0.00
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
0.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
0.00
Edirnespor
0.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
0.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
0.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
0.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
0.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
0.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.00
Kepezspor
0.00
Dersimspor
0.00
Bornova 1877
0.00
12 Bingölspor
0.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
0.00
Sinopspor
0.00
Diyarbekirspor
0.00
Bartınspor
0.00
Çayelispor
0.00
Hakkari Zapspor
0.00
Beşiktaş is 1.10 goals worse than Rizespor in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bayburt İÖİ
0.00
Hatayspor
0.33
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.50
Göztepe
0.50
Niğde Belediyesispor
0.50
Uşak Spor
0.50
Kütahyaspor
0.50
Ağrı 1970
0.50
Batman Petrolspor
0.50
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
0.50
Fenerbahçe
0.75
Bursaspor
0.75
Konyaspor
0.75
Galatasaray
0.83
Eyüpspor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
1.00
Beşiktaş
1.00
Başakşehir
1.00
Gaziantep FK
1.00
Giresunspor
1.00
Altay
1.00
Pazarspor
1.00
Çankaya FK
1.00
Kartal Bulvarspor
1.00
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
1.00
İnegölspor
1.00
Şanlıurfaspor
1.00
Tokat Bld Plevnespor
1.00
Karaman FK
1.00
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.00
Edirnespor
1.00
Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.00
Güzide Gebzespor
1.00
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.00
Karsiyaka
1.00
Adana 01 FK
1.00
Düzcespor
1.00
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
1.00
Somaspor
1.00
Diyarbekirspor
1.00
Fatih Karagümrük
1.17
Etimesgut SK
1.20
Kırklarelispor
1.29
İstanbulspor
1.33
Yeni Orduspor
1.33
Tire 2021 FK
1.33
Kilis Belediyespor
1.33
Muş Sport Klübü
1.33
İskenderunspor
1.33
Yalova Yeşilovaspor
1.33
Ankara Demirspor
1.33
Sivasspor
1.50
Ankaragücü
1.50
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
1.50
Trabzonspor
1.50
Amed
1.50
Kocaelispor
1.50
Çorluspor 1947
1.50
Nilüfer Belediye
1.50
Amasyaspor 1968
1.50
Fatsa Belediyespor
1.50
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.50
Menemen FK
1.50
Kahramanmaraşspor
1.50
Isparta 32 Spor
1.50
Elazığspor
1.50
Antalyaspor
1.60
Alanyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.67
Osmaniyespor
1.67
Boluspor
1.75
Bodrum FK
1.80
Rizespor
1.80
Eskisehirspor
1.90
Kestel Çilek
1.90
Karadeniz Ereğli BSK
1.90
Kahta 02 Spor
1.90
1926 Bulancak
1.90
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.90
Galata
1.90
İnkılapspor
1.90
Şiran
1.90
Kapadokyaspor
1.90
Bilecik Sogut
1.90
Denizli İYG
1.90
Ezinespor
1.90
Adanaspor
2.00
Sakaryaspor
2.00
Pendikspor
2.00
Ümraniyespor
2.00
Muğlaspor
2.00
Silifke Belediyespor
2.00
Balıkesirspor
2.00
Orduspor 1967
2.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
2.00
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
2.00
Sebat Gençlikspor
2.00
Talasgücü Belediyespor
2.00
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı
2.00
Samsunspor
2.00
Mardin 1969
2.00
Bucak Oğuzhanspor
2.00
Yeni Malatyaspor
2.00
Yozgat Bld Bozokspor
2.00
Ankaraspor
2.00
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
2.00
Ayvalikgucu
2.00
Bornova 1877
2.00
12 Bingölspor
2.00
Fethiyespor
2.00
Zonguldak Kömürspor
2.00
Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.00
Söke 1970
2.00
Anadolu Üniversitesi
2.00
Serhat Ardahanspor
2.00
1074 Çankırıspor
2.00
Sinopspor
2.00
Bartınspor
2.00
Çayelispor
2.00
Hakkari Zapspor
2.00
Erzurumspor FK
2.20
Kasımpaşa
2.50
Adana Demirspor
2.50
Çorum FK
2.50
Silivrispor
2.50
1461 Trabzon FK
2.50
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50
Bucaspor 1928
2.50
Bandırmaspor
3.00
Keçiörengücü
3.00
Serik Spor
3.00
Beykoz Anadolu
3.00
Erbaaspor
3.00
Iğdır FK
3.00
Küçükçekmece Sinopspor
3.00
Aliağa FAŞ
3.00
Kars 36
3.00
24 Erzincanspor
3.00
Türk Metal 1963
3.00
Artvin Hopaspor
3.00
1926 Polatlı Belediye
3.00
Kastamonuspor
3.50
Kayserispor
4.00
Manisa F.K.
4.00
Vanspor FK
4.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
4.00
İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik
4.00
Kurtalanspor
4.00
Karabük İdman Yurdu
4.00
Kepezspor
4.50
Afjet Afyonspor
5.00
Nazilli Spor
5.00
Beykoz İshaklıspor
6.00
Altınordu
7.00
Dersimspor
7.00
Beşiktaş is 0.80 goals better than Rizespor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Trabzonspor
61%
Galatasaray
54%
Beşiktaş
52%
Fenerbahçe
51%
Göztepe
44%
Konyaspor
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Beşiktaş
For 5.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rizespor
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Beşiktaş
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.3
4.6
5.3
3.9
25.1
26.5
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.2
9.3
11.0
6.1
6.0
6.2
27.5
31.3
23.7
vs Weaker (41)
9.6
10.2
9.1
4.3
5.1
3.4
24.7
25.8
23.6
% over line
43%
52%
33%
64%
76%
52%
77%
78%
76%
% under line
57%
48%
67%
36%
24%
48%
23%
22%
24%
This opponent (Rizespor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.0
9.0
4.0
3.4
4.5
26.1
26.6
25.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.6
9.4
9.7
4.9
4.0
5.5
24.8
25.0
24.7
vs Similar (33)
9.3
9.9
8.8
3.6
3.4
3.9
27.1
27.4
26.9
vs Weaker (4)
10.7
12.5
7.0
3.8
3.0
6.0
21.3
24.5
15.0
% over line
53%
62%
45%
52%
44%
60%
81%
86%
77%
% under line
47%
38%
55%
48%
56%
40%
19%
14%
23%
This opponent (Beşiktaş) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.3
Kayserispor
10.3
Konyaspor
9.8
Yeni Malatyaspor
9.8
Kasımpaşa
9.7
Beşiktaş
9.7
Adanaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.6
Eyüpspor
9.6
Giresunspor
9.6
Adana Demirspor
9.6
Göztepe
9.5
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.5
Trabzonspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.5
Bandırmaspor
9.5
Başakşehir
9.4
Hatayspor
9.4
Iğdır FK
9.4
Antalyaspor
9.4
Galatasaray
9.3
Samsunspor
9.2
Sivasspor
9.2
Bodrum FK
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Fatih Karagümrük
9.1
Çorum FK
9.0
Ümraniyespor
8.9
Beykoz Anadolu
8.8
İstanbulspor
8.8
Serik Spor
8.8
Esenler Erokspor
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.7
Pendikspor
8.6
Ankaragücü
8.6
Altınordu
8.6
Altay
8.6
Keçiörengücü
8.6
Sakaryaspor
8.5
Alanyaspor
8.4
Şanlıurfaspor
8.4
Erzurumspor FK
8.3
Sarıyer
8.3
Amed
8.3
Kocaelispor
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.0
Boluspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.2
Fenerbahçe
5.7
Başakşehir
5.4
Konyaspor
5.4
Alanyaspor
5.4
Vanspor FK
5.4
Sakaryaspor
5.4
Boluspor
5.4
Sarıyer
5.4
Sivasspor
5.4
Erzurumspor FK
5.3
Pendikspor
5.3
Çorum FK
5.2
Amed
5.2
Keçiörengücü
5.2
Bandırmaspor
5.2
Fatih Karagümrük
5.2
Hatayspor
5.2
Adanaspor
5.1
Kasımpaşa
5.1
Rizespor
5.1
Eyüpspor
5.0
Kayserispor
4.9
Esenler Erokspor
4.9
Beşiktaş
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.9
Beykoz Anadolu
4.8
Altay
4.8
Iğdır FK
4.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Manisa F.K.
4.7
Bursaspor
4.7
Göztepe
4.7
Ümraniyespor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
İstanbulspor
4.6
Antalyaspor
4.6
Trabzonspor
4.5
Ankaragücü
4.5
Samsunspor
4.4
Serik Spor
4.4
Şanlıurfaspor
4.3
Adana Demirspor
4.3
Yeni Malatyaspor
4.3
Altınordu
4.2
Bodrum FK
4.1
Giresunspor
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bursaspor
30.1
Fatih Karagümrük
28.9
Vanspor FK
28.6
Gaziantep FK
28.3
Altay
27.8
Başakşehir
27.6
Kasımpaşa
27.4
Altınordu
27.1
Alanyaspor
26.9
Antalyaspor
26.7
Boluspor
26.6
Pendikspor
26.5
Rizespor
26.3
Sakaryaspor
26.3
Beykoz Anadolu
26.2
Trabzonspor
26.2
Kocaelispor
26.2
Göztepe
25.9
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.7
Konyaspor
25.6
Erzurumspor FK
25.6
Eyüpspor
25.5
Yeni Malatyaspor
25.3
Fenerbahçe
25.2
Beşiktaş
25.1
Adanaspor
24.9
Kayserispor
24.7
Bandırmaspor
24.6
Ümraniyespor
24.4
Samsunspor
24.4
Iğdır FK
24.4
Sivasspor
24.3
Manisa F.K.
24.2
Galatasaray
24.1
Bodrum FK
23.9
Şanlıurfaspor
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.8
Çorum FK
23.6
Ankaragücü
23.5
Sarıyer
23.4
Esenler Erokspor
23.3
Serik Spor
23.1
İstanbulspor
23.1
Hatayspor
23.0
Giresunspor
22.8
Amed
22.7
Adana Demirspor
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.5%
Under 9.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.5%
Under 3.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.7%
Under 21.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Beşiktaş or Draw✓ Hit
87.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Beşiktaş + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş or Rizespor✓ Hit
80.9%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Beşiktaş + Rizespor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rizespor✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Draw + Rizespor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Beşiktaş over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.1%
Under
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Beşiktaş, so a minus line means Beşiktaş give that many goals of a start and Rizespor receive them. At -1, Beşiktaş must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Beşiktaş win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Beşiktaş)Actual: Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş -2
26.4%
Draw -2
20.1%
Rizespor +2
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Beşiktaş)Actual: Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş -1
46.6%
Draw -1
21.5%
Rizespor +1
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Beşiktaş)Actual: Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş +1
87.1%
Draw +1
8.3%
Rizespor -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Beşiktaş)Actual: Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.4%
Rizespor -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beşiktaş
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.81
0.54
0.71
0.57
0.92
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.69
0.38
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.64
0.27
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Beşiktaş) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beşiktaş over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beşiktaş
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.13
0.47
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.00
0.50
1.21
0.43
0.75
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rizespor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rizespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.12
1.06
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.00
1.75
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.64
1.27
0.73
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
4.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Beşiktaş) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beşiktaş over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beşiktaş over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rizespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
SAK (17)
€2m
HAT (16)
€2m
AD (23)
€2m
SS (19)
€1m
Beşiktaş's squad is €158m more valuable than Rizespor's (€202m vs €44m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
BUR (10)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
BF (10)
€6m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
GS (4)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
SAK (6)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
AD (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€0m
HAT (4)
€0m
Beşiktaş's attack is €58m more valuable than Rizespor's (€70m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
BUR (5)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
AME (4)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
SAK (6)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
SS (5)
€0m
AD (4)
€0m
HAT (3)
€0m
Beşiktaş's midfield is €43m more valuable than Rizespor's (€50m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
ANT (11)
€7m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
HAT (9)
€1m
AD (12)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
SAK (5)
€0m
Beşiktaş's defence is €57m more valuable than Rizespor's (€82m vs €25m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →