PythiaFootballBETA
Trabzonspor's recent form coming off a draw after a winning streak for Bebekta'sh is a storyline worth noting. However, the statistics suggest that Trabzonspor will emerge victorious. The model predicts an away win, with a 43% probability, while Bebekta'sh has a 30% chance of winning and a 26% chance of a draw.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.0, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. Bebekta'sh has been scoring an average of 1.92 goals at home, with an average of 1 goal conceded. Trabzonspor, on the other hand, has been conceding an average of 0.5 goals when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the away win, with the following selections also available: Over 21.5 fouls (85.1%), Over 1.5 (81.2%), Over 3.5 cards (74.4%), and Over 21.5 fouls (85.1%). Bebekta'sh has a 30% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 44% chance of losing.
Beşiktaş's 1-2 loss extends their home winless streak, but the away team, Trabzonspor, managed to capitalize on their momentum. The model's call, an away win, was correct as the actual result was also an away win. The model's selection, Trabzonspor, was the favourite with a 43% probability of winning.
The model's selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a probability of 81.2%, while Over 21.5 fouls also hit with a probability of 85.1%. However, the selection of Over 3.5 cards missed with a probability of 74.4%.
Beşiktaş| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 1.13 | 1.80 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 1.96 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.08 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Trabzonspor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.17 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1.93 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.40 | 1.60 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (4) | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.95 | 1.05 | 1.90 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Trabzonspor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 12% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
BeşiktaşTrabzonsporBeşiktaş| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 25.3 | 26.9 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 11.8 | 10.3 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 29.2 | 29.0 | 29.3 |
| vs Weaker (42) | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 24.7 | 26.6 | 22.8 |
| % over line | 48% | 54% | 42% | 72% | 80% | 64% | 77% | 83% | 71% |
| % under line | 52% | 46% | 58% | 28% | 20% | 36% | 23% | 17% | 29% |
Trabzonspor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 25.7 | 25.4 | 26.1 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.0 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 25.2 | 23.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Similar (6) | 10.7 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 24.3 | 23.7 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 8.9 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 25.9 |
| % over line | 42% | 44% | 40% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| % under line | 58% | 56% | 60% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | A | 3-3 | |
| 15/02/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/09/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/02/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/09/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 16/04/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/10/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/22 | A | 1-1 |
Beşiktaş| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 4-0 |
Trabzonspor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 3.1 | 85% | 68% | 41% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.6 | 56% | 23.7 | 71% | 260 | 151 | 43 | 66 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 62% |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 34 | 74 | 62% | 2.2 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 3.4 | 88% | 65% | 53% | 11.1 | 62% | 6.2 | 82% | 26.4 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 69 | 59% | 2.0 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 2.9 | 79% | 56% | 26% | 9.8 | 47% | 4.4 | 53% | 26.1 | 76% | 116 | 48 | 23 | 45 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 60 | 50% | 1.8 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 10.1 | 50% | 5.4 | 76% | 25.6 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 5 |  Başakşehir | 34 | 57 | 47% | 1.7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 2.7 | 82% | 62% | 24% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.8 | 73% | 26.5 | 88% | 75 | 36 | 13 | 26 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 6 |  Göztepe | 34 | 55 | 41% | 1.6 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 2.2 | 71% | 41% | 18% | 9.4 | 47% | 5.4 | 68% | 27.6 | 94% | 80 | 42 | 24 | 15 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 38% |
| 7 |  Samsunspor | 34 | 51 | 38% | 1.5 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 2.7 | 76% | 56% | 32% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.1 | 91% | 56 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 8 |  Rizespor | 34 | 41 | 29% | 1.2 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 2.9 | 76% | 59% | 35% | 8.8 | 47% | 4.5 | 61% | 26.9 | 85% | 49 | 18 | 10 | 21 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 9 |  Konyaspor | 34 | 40 | 29% | 1.2 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 2.7 | 91% | 56% | 24% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.9 | 68% | 25.1 | 79% | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 34 | 37 | 21% | 1.1 | 41 | 41 | +0 | 2.4 | 74% | 47% | 29% | 8.4 | 35% | 4.8 | 64% | 27.2 | 82% | 42 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 11 |  Kocaelispor | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 1.9 | 56% | 26% | 12% | 8.1 | 29% | 4.9 | 62% | 28.7 | 94% | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 12 |  Gaziantep FK | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 3.0 | 91% | 68% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 5.9 | 85% | 29.7 | 94% | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 50% |
| 13 |  Kasımpaşa | 34 | 35 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 2.4 | 71% | 44% | 21% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.3 | 71% | 28.8 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34 | 34 | 26% | 1.0 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 2.4 | 65% | 53% | 21% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 58% | 26.9 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 43% |
| 15 |  Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 24% | 1.0 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 2.4 | 68% | 47% | 18% | 9.3 | 38% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 79% | 36 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 16 |  Antalyaspor | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.6 | 65% | 50% | 29% | 9.8 | 59% | 5.6 | 70% | 27.3 | 88% | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 30 | 24% | 0.9 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 2.5 | 76% | 47% | 18% | 8.9 | 41% | 4.0 | 62% | 28.1 | 94% | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 18 |  Kayserispor | 34 | 30 | 18% | 0.9 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 2.6 | 79% | 50% | 32% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.4 | 70% | 26.0 | 82% | 27 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 47% |