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Birkirkara vs Gzira United Result & Analysis

Date: 16/12/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 3-2
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Vs
31%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Birkirkara win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gzira United win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L11D10W02L30W02L02L30W11DH·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09A·HIB30/09H·MOS21/10A·BAL29/10H·MAR04/11A·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.001.931.001.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.481.041.621.081.361.00
vs Weaker (3)3.000.674.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L01L11D61W10W01L11D30W24L12LH·HIB16/09A·BAL23/09H·NAX26/09A·GUD01/10H·SIR22/10A·SLI29/10H·VAL04/11A·MOS26/11H·MAR03/12A·HAM13/12
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.201.331.471.800.93
vs Stronger (6)0.331.830.002.000.401.80
vs Similar (20)1.601.151.251.582.120.50
vs Weaker (4)3.250.502.500.504.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
9.2%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.5%
Birkirkara goals ↓
Gzira United goals →
01234
09.2%9.5%7.3%3.3%1.1%
18.1%14%8.6%3.9%1.3%
25.5%7.5%5.1%2.3%0.8%
32.2%2.9%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.6%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birkirkara goals (down), columns = Gzira United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Birkirkara is 0.12 points better than Gzira United in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Birkirkara is 0.38 goals worse than Gzira United in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Birkirkara is 0.23 goals better than Gzira United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.27).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D01L20W01L00D10W01LH·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09A·HIB30/09H·MOS21/10A·BAL29/10H·MAR04/11A·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.371.270.400.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.850.371.000.460.710.29
vs Weaker (3)2.000.333.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D21W00D00D10W10W11D00DH·HIB16/09A·BAL23/09H·NAX26/09A·GUD01/10H·SIR22/10A·SLI29/10H·VAL04/11A·MOS26/11H·MAR03/12A·HAM13/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.470.470.600.33
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.000.000.200.60
vs Similar (20)0.600.400.580.580.620.12
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L10W01L10W01L02L20W10WH·SLI17/09A·FLO23/09H·VAL27/09A·HIB30/09H·MOS21/10A·BAL29/10H·MAR04/11A·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.670.600.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.630.670.620.620.640.71
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Gzira United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L11D40W10W01L01L20W13L12LH·HIB16/09A·BAL23/09H·NAX26/09A·GUD01/10H·SIR22/10A·SLI29/10H·VAL04/11A·MOS26/11H·MAR03/12A·HAM13/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.800.871.001.200.60
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.002.000.201.20
vs Similar (20)1.000.750.671.001.500.38
vs Weaker (4)2.500.252.500.502.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gzira United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls85.3%--------
Over 2.5 cards84.6%--------
Under 3.575.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls73.3%--------
Over 1.573.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners71.2%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Birkirkara and Gzira United have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Birkirkara and Gzira United have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Birkirkara and Gzira United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Birkirkara and Gzira United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BIR wins
1
Draws
0
GU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Birkirkara vs Gzira United · H/A from BIR
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23AGzira United Vs BIR1-3
12/11/22HBIR Vs Gzira United1-1

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/23AGudja United Vs BIR1-1
02/12/23HBIR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-0
26/11/23ANaxxar Lions Vs BIR2-0
04/11/23HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk0-2
29/10/23ABalzan FC Vs BIR0-3
21/10/23HBIR Vs Mosta0-2
30/09/23AHibernians Vs BIR0-1
27/09/23HBIR Vs Valletta FC1-1
23/09/23AFloriana Vs BIR2-0
17/09/23HBIR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-0

Gzira UnitedGzira United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/23AHamrun Spartans Vs GU2-1
03/12/23HGU Vs Marsaxlokk2-4
26/11/23AMosta Vs GU0-3
04/11/23HGU Vs Valletta FC1-1
29/10/23ASliema Wanderers Vs GU1-0
22/10/23HGU Vs Sirens1-0
01/10/23AGudja United Vs GU1-6
26/09/23HGU Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
23/09/23ABalzan FC Vs GU1-0
16/09/23HGU Vs Hibernians0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.71
HomeWDLLW1.95
AwayLWWLD1.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%58%37%
AVG goals2.502.632.37
Over 1.5 %82%84%79%
Over 2.5 %42%47%37%
Over 3.5 %18%21%16%
Scored1.631.841.42
Conceded0.870.790.95
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet34%47%21%
Corners10.509.0012.00
Cards8.506.0011.00
Gzira United
Gzira United
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL1.48
HomeLDWDL1.29
AwayLWLWL1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%33%46%
AVG goals2.652.712.58
Over 1.5 %75%79%71%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %29%38%21%
Scored1.521.331.71
Conceded1.121.380.88
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet40%33%46%
Corners10.438.6711.75
Cards7.006.507.40

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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