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Birzebbuga vs Melita Result & Analysis

Date: 28/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Birzebbuga
Birzebbuga
Vs
39%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Birzebbuga win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W10W20W10W11D03L01L30W31WH·GUD29/11A·SIR11/12H·MAR14/12A·MEL21/12H·ST.10/01A·VIT17/01A·BAL01/02H·SAN07/02A·ZEB14/02H·FGU22/02
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.002.251.001.751.00
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (10)1.801.102.171.001.251.25
vs Weaker (5)2.800.802.501.003.000.67
Clean sheet %31% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W31W01L02L32W41W22D20W10W20WH·PIE30/11A·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.701.771.771.531.65
vs Stronger (2)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (23)1.171.781.441.891.001.71
vs Weaker (5)3.601.203.001.004.001.33
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
Under 2.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1 ✓
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-0
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
0-0
5.3%
Birzebbuga goals ↓
Melita goals →
01234
05.3%5.5%5.0%2.5%1.0%
15.9%12%8.1%4.1%1.6%
25.6%8.6%6.6%3.4%1.3%
33.0%4.7%3.6%1.8%0.7%
41.2%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birzebbuga goals (down), columns = Melita goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Birzebbuga is 0.38 points better than Melita in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Birzebbuga is 0.23 goals better than Melita in terms of goals scored per game (2.09 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Birzebbuga is 0.12 goals better than Melita in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W10W10W10W01L00D10W20WH·GUD29/11A·SIR11/12H·MAR14/12A·MEL21/12H·ST.10/01A·VIT17/01A·BAL01/02H·SAN07/02A·ZEB14/02H·FGU22/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.251.120.380.880.12
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.301.000.330.750.25
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.500.501.330.00
Clean sheet %75% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W01L01L30W10W01L10W00D10WH·PIE30/11A·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.601.150.620.710.59
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.501.00--
vs Similar (23)0.830.701.220.670.570.71
vs Weaker (5)1.400.001.500.001.330.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D10W00D01L02L01L20W11DH·GUD29/11A·SIR11/12H·MAR14/12A·MEL21/12H·ST.10/01A·VIT17/01A·BAL01/02H·SAN07/02A·ZEB14/02H·FGU22/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.751.120.620.880.88
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.900.801.170.670.501.00
vs Weaker (5)1.400.601.000.501.670.67
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MelitaMelita

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D01L02L31W21W10W10W10WH·PIE30/11A·MGA10/12A·ST.13/12H·BIR21/12H·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.621.150.821.06
vs Stronger (2)1.501.001.501.00--
vs Similar (23)0.351.090.221.220.431.00
vs Weaker (5)2.201.201.501.002.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BIR wins
0
Draws
0
MEL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Birzebbuga vs Melita · H/A from BIR
DateH/AGameScore
21/12/25AMelita Vs BIR0-2

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/26HBIR Vs Fgura United3-1
14/02/26AZebbug Rangers Vs BIR0-3
07/02/26HBIR Vs Santa Lucía0-1
01/02/26ABalzan FC Vs BIR3-0
17/01/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs BIR1-1
10/01/26HBIR Vs St. Andrews1-0
21/12/25AMelita Vs BIR0-2
14/12/25HBIR Vs Marsa1-0
11/12/25ASirens Vs BIR1-2
29/11/25HBIR Vs Gudja United2-1

MelitaMelita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/26HMEL Vs Sirens2-0
14/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MEL0-1
08/02/26HMEL Vs Balzan FC2-0
01/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs MEL2-2
17/01/26AZebbug Rangers Vs MEL1-4
11/01/26HMEL Vs Marsa3-2
21/12/25HMEL Vs Birzebbuga0-2
13/12/25ASt. Andrews Vs MEL1-0
10/12/25AMgarr United Vs MEL1-3
30/11/25HMEL Vs Pietà Hotspurs3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Birzebbuga
Birzebbuga
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW2.12
HomeWWWLW2.25
AwayWWDLW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %69%75%62%
AVG goals3.003.252.75
Over 1.5 %69%50%88%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %25%38%12%
Scored2.002.251.75
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet31%25%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.34
HomeWLWWW1.40
AwayWLWDW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals3.203.283.12
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.581.601.56
Conceded1.621.681.56
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet22%32%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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