BK Hacken, coming off a 0-3 defeat to Hammarby FF, host Kalmar FF, who suffered a 2-3 loss to IFK Goteborg. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 10.4% chance. BK Hacken's recent form at home has seen them score an average of 1.44 goals and concede 1.33, while Kalmar FF's away form has resulted in an average of 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selection, a home win, has a 54% chance of occurring. The other selections, with their probabilities, are: Over 1.5 (85.2%), which has been a hit, and the model's selection, a home win (54%). BK Hacken has a 54% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, BK Hacken's home match against Kalmar FF ended in a 1-1 draw, defying the pre-match favourite's expectations. The win extends their run of inconsistent form, coming off a defeat, but the actual result was a draw, not a home win as the model predicted. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's call was wrong, as the model's selection did not come through. The model's selection was correct in suggesting Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 85.2% probability, and the actual score reflected this, with a total of 2 goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BK Hacken win✗ Miss
54.3%
Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.78
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.89
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.01
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.96
Kalmar FF win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.90
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BK Hacken
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.53
1.87
1.47
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.64
1.92
1.46
1.50
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
2.00
1.00
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.00
2.00
0.92
1.20
1.10
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
@ 1.15+4.1%
Under 1.5
14.8%
@ 4.93-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.25
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.2%
@ 1.52+2.9%
Under 2.5
35.8%
@ 2.41-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.2%
@ 2.30+1.5%
Under 3.5
57.8%
@ 1.58-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
@ 1.50+2.0%
No
36.5%
@ 2.40-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.4%@ 7.65+4.5%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.72+3.8%
2-0
7.6%@ 9.79+3.0%
3-1
6.6%@ 11.50+2.7%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.32+1.7%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.35+2.2%
1-2
6.0%@ 12.05+2.3%
3-0
5.2%@ 14.18+2.0%
BK Hacken goals ↓
Kalmar FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.7%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.5%
10%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.6%
9.7%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.2%
6.6%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.6%
3.3%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BK Hacken goals (down), columns = Kalmar FF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.33
Hammarby FF
2.00
BK Hacken
1.72
Djurgardens IF
1.71
AIK Stockholm
1.65
IF Elfsborg
1.56
Malmo FF
1.44
Vasteras SK FK
1.44
IF Brommapojkarna
1.33
Gais
1.28
Mjallby AIF
1.25
IFK Goteborg
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.06
Degerfors IF
0.89
Orgryte IS
0.78
Halmstad
0.44
BK Hacken is 0.67 points better than Kalmar FF in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.61
Hammarby FF
2.33
Djurgardens IF
2.18
BK Hacken
1.78
Malmo FF
1.78
Mjallby AIF
1.50
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.39
Vasteras SK FK
1.39
IFK Goteborg
1.28
Orgryte IS
1.22
Kalmar FF
1.17
Gais
1.17
Degerfors IF
0.94
Halmstad
0.67
BK Hacken is 0.61 goals better than Kalmar FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hammarby FF
0.83
Gais
1.00
IF Elfsborg
1.06
Djurgardens IF
1.12
Mjallby AIF
1.44
BK Hacken
1.44
Sirius
1.44
AIK Stockholm
1.47
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50
Kalmar FF
1.56
Degerfors IF
1.61
Malmo FF
1.67
Vasteras SK FK
1.78
Halmstad
1.94
IFK Goteborg
2.17
Orgryte IS
2.28
BK Hacken is 0.11 goals better than Kalmar FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Malmo FF
57%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Mjallby AIF
54%
AIK Stockholm
52%
BK Hacken
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
Vasteras SK FK
47%
IF Elfsborg
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Kalmar FF
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
BK Hacken is 5.3 percentage points better than Kalmar FF in terms of average possession (52% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
BK Hacken
For 5.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kalmar FF
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
BK Hacken
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.8
11.6
3.9
4.0
3.9
24.2
24.6
23.7
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
9.0
15.0
5.0
5.5
4.5
15.5
16.0
15.0
vs Similar (41)
10.7
9.8
11.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.8
25.1
24.4
vs Weaker (5)
9.5
-
9.5
2.6
0.0
3.2
23.5
-
23.5
% over line
62%
45%
79%
56%
48%
64%
69%
70%
68%
% under line
38%
55%
21%
44%
52%
36%
31%
30%
32%
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.5
9.6
2.0
2.2
1.9
22.6
22.5
22.8
vs Stronger (4)
7.3
7.0
7.5
1.5
3.0
1.0
23.7
23.0
24.0
vs Similar (39)
10.1
10.2
10.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
22.8
23.1
22.5
vs Weaker (7)
14.0
14.0
-
0.3
0.7
0.0
18.5
18.5
-
% over line
52%
56%
46%
28%
24%
32%
55%
50%
62%
% under line
48%
44%
54%
72%
76%
68%
45%
50%
38%
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.3
Sirius
11.0
Orgryte IS
10.9
AIK Stockholm
10.7
IF Brommapojkarna
10.6
Djurgardens IF
10.6
Vasteras SK FK
10.5
BK Hacken
10.4
Gais
10.3
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Malmo FF
10.2
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.0
Halmstad
10.0
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Hammarby FF
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.6
IFK Goteborg
4.5
BK Hacken
4.4
AIK Stockholm
4.1
Degerfors IF
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Malmo FF
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
IF Brommapojkarna
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Vasteras SK FK
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Sirius
3.3
Orgryte IS
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
IFK Goteborg
26.5
Djurgardens IF
25.9
Mjallby AIF
25.5
Sirius
25.1
Malmo FF
24.9
Hammarby FF
24.8
Degerfors IF
24.7
Gais
24.6
Vasteras SK FK
24.5
BK Hacken
24.2
AIK Stockholm
24.2
Halmstad
24.0
IF Brommapojkarna
24.0
IF Elfsborg
23.9
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.3%
@ 1.49-8.3%
Under 9.5
46.7%
@ 2.39+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Under
Marathonbet
2.47
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.45
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.3%
Under 3.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.0%
Under 21.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BK Hacken
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.68
0.69
0.85
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.61
0.69
0.69
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BK Hacken over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BK Hacken
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.20
0.67
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.96
1.23
0.62
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalmar FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalmar FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.20
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.39
1.31
0.23
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (BK Hacken) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BK Hacken over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BK Hacken over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalmar FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.2%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
+11.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (24)
€30m
DI (22)
€27m
SIR (23)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (25)
€20m
IE (26)
€17m
IG (22)
€16m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (20)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
OI (26)
€8m
IB (24)
€8m
HAL (19)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
BK Hacken's squad is €6m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€16m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
MF (6)
€9m
AS (7)
€8m
IG (8)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
BK Hacken's attack is €1m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
MA (6)
€11m
MF (5)
€8m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (4)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
HAL (3)
€1m
IB (3)
€1m
BK Hacken's midfield is €1m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
IG (10)
€5m
AS (9)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
SIR (8)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
BK Hacken's defence is €4m more valuable than Kalmar FF's (€7m vs €3m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
IF Brommapojkarna
Gais
Mjallby AIF
IFK Goteborg
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad