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BKMA vs Alashkert Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
BKMA
BKMA
Vs
43%
27%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

BKMA are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 43% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 30% for an Alashkert win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. BKMA have averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded against stronger opponents at home, while Alashkert, playing away against weaker teams, average 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded. Suggested picks from the model include an 80.1% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw 27%, and the away win 30%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals is highlighted with its probability.

Results analysis

BKMA’s victory over Alashkert extended their winning run, with the 2-0 final score confirming the model’s home win prediction. The Pythia model had given the home side a 43% chance of triumph, and its call proved correct. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model assigned an 80.1% probability and it indeed hit, as the match produced two goals. The expected total of 2.9 fell short of the actual total, but the most likely scoreline of 2-1 was missed, while the 1-1 outcome was also not achieved. Overall, the model’s predictions largely materialised.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BKMA win✓ Hit
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D30W03L15L32W11D21W01L04LA·SHI08/03A·ARA13/03H·WES27/03A·FC 09/04H·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.831.201.531.602.13
vs Stronger (20)1.552.151.441.781.642.45
vs Similar (10)1.101.200.831.171.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D01L03L22D11D11D23L10W04LH·PYU25/02A·VAN01/03H·ARA08/03A·ARA15/03H·VAN29/03A·PYU05/04H·FC 11/04A·ARA18/04H·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.000.932.000.752.00
vs Stronger (9)0.782.670.753.250.802.20
vs Similar (12)0.831.751.001.570.602.00
vs Weaker (9)0.891.671.001.330.831.83
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-0 ✓
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
BKMA goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
01234
06.5%5.9%4.6%2.0%0.7%
17.5%12%7.5%3.3%1.1%
27.0%9.2%6.0%2.6%0.9%
33.8%4.9%3.2%1.4%0.5%
41.5%2.0%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
BKMA is 0.41 points better than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
BKMA is 0.74 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
BKMA is 0.01 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W02L02L00D10W00D00D02LA·SHI08/03A·ARA13/03H·WES27/03A·FC 09/04H·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.530.730.871.07
vs Stronger (20)0.751.100.671.000.821.18
vs Similar (10)0.600.500.330.331.000.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D02L01L11D00D21W00D02LH·PYU25/02A·VAN01/03H·ARA08/03A·ARA15/03H·VAN29/03A·PYU05/04H·FC 11/04A·ARA18/04H·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.210.710.560.88
vs Stronger (9)0.441.330.251.250.601.40
vs Similar (12)0.170.580.000.570.400.60
vs Weaker (9)0.670.560.670.330.670.67
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D20W01L13L32W01L21W01L02LA·SHI08/03A·ARA13/03H·WES27/03A·FC 09/04H·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.930.670.800.731.07
vs Stronger (20)0.801.050.780.780.821.27
vs Similar (10)0.500.700.500.830.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L01L21W00D11D02L10W02LH·PYU25/02A·VAN01/03H·ARA08/03A·ARA15/03H·VAN29/03A·PYU05/04H·FC 11/04A·ARA18/04H·GAN02/05A·SHI10/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.200.711.290.191.12
vs Stronger (9)0.331.330.502.000.200.80
vs Similar (12)0.671.171.001.000.201.40
vs Weaker (9)0.221.110.331.000.171.17
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA's squad is €3m less valuable than Alashkert's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA's attack is €2m less valuable than Alashkert's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA's defence is €1m less valuable than Alashkert's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
BKM wins
2
Draws
4
ALA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BKMA vs Alashkert · H/A from BKM
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24AAlashkert Vs BKM2-0
07/10/24HBKM Vs Alashkert1-0
28/04/24AAlashkert Vs BKM0-0
27/02/24HBKM Vs Alashkert0-6
25/10/23AAlashkert Vs BKM1-0
19/08/23HBKM Vs Alashkert0-4
16/05/23AAlashkert Vs BKM1-2
10/03/23HBKM Vs Alashkert1-1

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/25AArarat-Armenia Vs BKM4-0
11/05/25HBKM Vs FC Urartu0-1
04/05/25APyunik Yerevan Vs BKM1-2
26/04/25HBKM Vs Van1-1
18/04/25HBKM Vs Shirak3-2
13/04/25HBKM Vs FC Noah1-5
09/04/25AFC Noah Vs BKM3-0
27/03/25HBKM Vs West Armenia3-0
13/03/25AArarat Vs BKM1-1
08/03/25AShirak Vs BKM0-0

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25AShirak Vs ALA4-0
02/05/25HALA Vs Gandzasar1-0
18/04/25AArarat Vs ALA3-2
11/04/25HALA Vs FC Urartu1-1
05/04/25APyunik Yerevan Vs ALA1-1
29/03/25HALA Vs Van2-2
15/03/25AArarat-Armenia Vs ALA3-0
08/03/25HALA Vs Ararat0-1
01/03/25AVan Vs ALA1-1
25/02/25HALA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL0.86
HomeWLWDL1.04
AwayDDLWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals3.102.963.24
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %38%28%48%
Scored1.201.201.20
Conceded1.901.762.04
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL0.80
HomeLLDDW0.75
AwayDLDLL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%12%23%
AVG goals2.742.542.92
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored0.960.831.08
Conceded1.781.711.85
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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