BKMA are favoured to win, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of an away win. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a single-goal total of 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14%. BKMA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have scored an average of 1.36 goals and conceded 1.36, while Alashkert, away against a weaker side, average 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 with a 77.2% probability, and Over 1.5 with a 71.1% probability. The home win probability is 44%, the draw probability 29%, and the away win probability 27%. The model’s selections, each with its own probability, are Under 3.5 (77.2%) and Over 1.5 (71.1%).
Results analysis
The upset came as BKMA, the pre-match favourite with a 44% chance, fell short, while Alashkert claimed a 1-3 victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed the away win. The suggested picks were mixed: “Under 3.5” missed its 77.2% probability, whereas “Over 1.5” hit at 71.1%. BKMA entered the match on a win, extending a brief run, but their 1-3 loss ended the streak. Alashkert, coming off a draw, turned the tide with a strong away performance. The match finished with a total of four goals, well above the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.29
1.24
1.31
2.08
vs Stronger (21)
1.33
1.86
1.36
1.36
1.30
2.40
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.70
1.12
1.62
0.50
1.79
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.30
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.27
1.00
1.67
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
1.56
1.50
1.00
0.40
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
4.7%
BKMA goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.8%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.9%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.0%
4.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
BKMA is 1.11 points worse than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.96).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
BKMA is 0.44 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
BKMA is 0.70 goals worse than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.59
0.65
0.54
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
1.00
0.64
0.82
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.56
0.50
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.10
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (11)
0.09
0.45
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.56
1.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.71
0.59
0.77
1.08
vs Stronger (21)
0.81
0.86
0.73
0.55
0.90
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.56
1.12
0.14
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.20
0.17
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.82
1.00
1.17
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.22
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA's squad is €3m less valuable than Alashkert's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA's attack is €2m less valuable than Alashkert's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA's defence is €1m less valuable than Alashkert's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ararat-Armenia
FC Noah
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Urartu
Van
Gandzasar
Shirak
Ararat