The model favours an away win, with a 59% chance for Ararat-Armenia and a 17% chance for BKMA to lift the trophy, while a draw sits at 24%. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 11.4% probability. BKMA, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, whereas Ararat-Armenia on the road against a weaker opponent nets 2.25 goals and concedes 1.38. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away +2 handicap (94.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.3%), Under 5.5 (93.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.3%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.2%). BKMA have recently won their last match 3-0 over Gandzasar, while Ararat-Armenia also come off a 1-0 victory against Universitatea Craiova.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia win
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.53
0.93
1.27
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
2.19
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.38
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
0.86
0.43
1.57
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.73
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.80
2.25
0.38
2.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
0-2
11.0%
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
4.6%
BKMA goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
10%
11%
7.1%
3.5%
1
4.2%
11%
9.9%
6.4%
3.1%
2
2.4%
4.6%
4.5%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
BKMA is 1.20 points worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
BKMA is 1.20 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
BKMA is 0.20 goals better than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BKMA or Draw
39.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers BKMA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA or Ararat-Armenia
76.6%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers BKMA + Ararat-Armenia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat-Armenia
84.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
23%
61%
covers Draw + Ararat-Armenia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BKMA over/under 0.5
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BKMA, so a minus line means BKMA give that many goals of a start and Ararat-Armenia receive them. At -1, BKMA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BKMA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BKMA)
BKMA -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.1%
Ararat-Armenia +2
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BKMA)
BKMA -1
5.4%
Draw -1
10.4%
Ararat-Armenia +1
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BKMA)
BKMA +1
39.2%
Draw +1
23.5%
Ararat-Armenia -1
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BKMA)
BKMA +2
62.7%
Draw +2
19.0%
Ararat-Armenia -2
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.88
0.12
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.31
0.88
1.25
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.43
0.14
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
0.93
0.27
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.12
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
BKMA's squad is €6m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€2m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA's attack is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
BKMA's defence is €3m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Urartu
Shirak
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van