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BKMA vs Ararat Result & Analysis

Date: 09/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
BKMA
BKMA
Vs
28%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

BKMA win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D01L10W00D01L30W11D02L03LH·PYU13/11H·ARA22/11H·SHI29/11A·VAN03/12A·ARA08/12H·FC 27/02A·LER04/03H·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.761.480.851.850.671.08
vs Stronger (14)0.711.861.122.120.171.50
vs Similar (11)0.821.000.401.401.170.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %16% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L02L10W00D13L12L13L12L20WH·LER12/11A·FC 22/11A·PYU30/11A·ALA04/12H·BKM08/12H·ARA27/02H·SHI06/03H·VAN10/03A·FC 18/03H·LER31/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.741.220.791.210.691.23
vs Stronger (14)0.641.360.671.500.621.25
vs Similar (13)0.851.080.881.000.801.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.6%
Under 2.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.4%
0-1 ✓
12.4%
1-0
9.4%
0-2
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
5.2%
BKMA goals ↓
Ararat goals →
01234
012%12%8.5%3.5%1.1%
19.4%15%8.1%3.3%1.0%
25.2%6.4%3.9%1.6%0.5%
31.7%2.0%1.3%0.5%0.2%
40.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
BKMA is 0.17 points worse than Ararat in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
BKMA is 0.19 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.81).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
BKMA is 0.31 goals worse than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.17).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D00D00D00D20W00D00D02LH·PYU13/11H·ARA22/11H·SHI29/11A·VAN03/12A·ARA08/12H·FC 27/02A·LER04/03H·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.320.480.380.540.250.42
vs Stronger (14)0.360.570.620.500.000.67
vs Similar (11)0.270.360.000.600.500.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %64% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L10W00D12L02L01L00D00DH·LER12/11A·FC 22/11A·PYU30/11A·ALA04/12H·BKM08/12H·ARA27/02H·SHI06/03H·VAN10/03A·FC 18/03H·LER31/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.290.790.460.54
vs Stronger (14)0.430.640.500.830.380.50
vs Similar (13)0.310.690.120.750.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L10W00D01L10W11D02L01LH·PYU13/11H·ARA22/11H·SHI29/11A·VAN03/12A·ARA08/12H·FC 27/02A·LER04/03H·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.441.000.461.310.420.67
vs Stronger (14)0.361.290.501.620.170.83
vs Similar (11)0.550.640.400.800.670.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D01L10W12L12L20WH·LER12/11A·FC 22/11A·PYU30/11A·ALA04/12H·BKM08/12H·ARA27/02H·SHI06/03H·VAN10/03A·FC 18/03H·LER31/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.560.500.430.230.69
vs Stronger (14)0.210.710.170.670.250.75
vs Similar (13)0.540.380.750.250.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BKM wins
1
Draws
0
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BKMA vs Ararat · H/A from BKM
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/22AArarat Vs BKM0-0
17/09/22HBKM Vs Ararat2-1

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23APyunik Yerevan Vs BKM3-0
16/03/23HBKM Vs FC Urartu0-2
10/03/23HBKM Vs Alashkert1-1
04/03/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs BKM0-3
27/02/23HBKM Vs FC Noah0-1
08/12/22AArarat Vs BKM0-0
03/12/22AVan Vs BKM0-1
29/11/22HBKM Vs Shirak0-1
22/11/22HBKM Vs Ararat-Armenia2-2
13/11/22HBKM Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-1

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/23HARA Vs Lernayin Artsakh2-0
18/03/23AFC Noah Vs ARA2-1
10/03/23HARA Vs Van1-3
06/03/23HARA Vs Shirak1-2
27/02/23HARA Vs Ararat-Armenia1-3
08/12/22HARA Vs BKMA0-0
04/12/22AAlashkert Vs ARA0-1
30/11/22APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA2-0
22/11/22AFC Urartu Vs ARA2-1
12/11/22HARA Vs Lernayin Artsakh0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL0.68
HomeDLLDL0.54
AwayLWDWL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%8%17%
AVG goals2.242.691.75
Over 1.5 %56%69%42%
Over 2.5 %40%46%33%
Over 3.5 %24%31%17%
Scored0.760.850.67
Conceded1.481.851.08
BTTS40%54%25%
Clean Sheet16%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.96
HomeDLLLW1.07
AwayWLLWL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals1.962.001.92
Over 1.5 %63%57%69%
Over 2.5 %37%36%38%
Over 3.5 %11%21%0%
Scored0.740.790.69
Conceded1.221.211.23
BTTS37%36%38%
Clean Sheet37%36%38%
Corners11.509.0014.00
Cards5.504.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC UrartuFC Urartu3683
72%
2.3
6825+43
2.6
67%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3680
69%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.00.6
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3676
64%
2.1
7027+43
2.7
72%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.8
-
4AlashkertAlashkert3666
56%
1.8
5837+21
2.6
61%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.61.0
-
5VanVan3640
31%
1.1
3859-21
2.7
69%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
6AraratArarat3638
28%
1.1
2942-13
2.0
61%
36%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.81.2
-
7ShirakShirak3636
28%
1.0
2555-30
2.2
58%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
8BKMABKMA3632
19%
0.9
3653-17
2.5
64%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.5
-
9FC NoahFC Noah3632
22%
0.9
3466-32
2.8
75%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5340.91.8
-
10Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh3622
14%
0.6
1659-43
2.1
61%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.41.6
-
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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