BKMA is expected to emerge victorious in this Premier League encounter against Ararat, with a predicted win probability of 53%. However, the match is likely to be closely contested, with a 25% chance of a draw. Ararat's slim chances of a win stand at 22%.
The expected total number of goals is 3.0, indicating a potentially high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.
BKMA has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per match against teams of similar strength, while conceding just 0.2 goals. In contrast, Ararat has been averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, and it also suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, which has an 81% probability. BKMA has a 53% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 22% chance of losing. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals has a 81% probability, while BKMA's home win is the model's selection with a 53% probability.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came in the Armenia: Premier League where BKMA's 1-2 loss to Ararat marked their third defeat in a row, following two straight defeats. The win extends Ararat's run of mixed results, having come off a win before this match. The pre-match favourite, BKMA, had a 53% chance of winning, but the model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Ararat secured an away win. The model's selection, Home win, had a 53% chance of winning, but the actual result was an away win. The model's selection, Home win, did not come through. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 81% probability, and was the model's selection.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win✗ Miss
53.2%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.46
Edge
+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
BetVictor
2.50
William Hil
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.23
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.43
10Bet
3.35
Bet365
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Ararat win✓ Hit
22.1%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.53
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.07
1.20
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
2.19
1.12
2.00
0.75
2.38
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.86
1.00
0.29
1.43
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.47
0.64
1.57
0.81
3.25
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
3.00
0.62
1.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
@ 1.25+8.2%
Under 1.5
19.0%
@ 3.37-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Under
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.87+8.4%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.81-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
888Sport
1.91
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
SBO
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
@ 3.23+6.7%
Under 3.5
64.9%
@ 1.28-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.30
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
@ 1.66+3.8%
No
41.7%
@ 1.99-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
No
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
1xBet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 5.84+4.3%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.81+4.9%
2-0
8.7%@ 11.39+4.9%
1-0
8.3%@ 7.81+2.8%
0-0
6.1%@ 9.58+1.6%
3-1
6.1%@ 18.05+3.7%
1-2 ✓
6.0%@ 8.84+1.1%
2-2
5.6%@ 12.00+2.0%
BKMA goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.6%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.3%
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
BKMA is 0.20 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
BKMA is 0.20 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
BKMA is 1.20 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.94
0.12
0.88
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.14
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.97
0.14
0.79
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.11
0.12
1.00
0.30
1.20
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.75
0.17
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.80
0.67
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.25
1.00
1.12
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.50
0.50
0.79
0.44
2.12
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
1.89
0.50
0.75
0.20
2.80
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.92
0.50
0.83
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.0%
1.25
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
BKMA and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
Gandzasar
Syunik
Van